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Sep 10 16 tweets 7 min read
ES Short Squeeze - Stock market lookin good, Crypto....eh.
#Cryptocurrency #Market/#Bitcoin market analysis 9/9
So, there was a short squeeze. A really, really big one. A lot of weird crap happened, but a lot of people keep looking in the wrong place.
Why? Because it's the $SPY that gapped up on it's futures, not some magic $BTC move as BTC follows the SPY these days. tradingview.com/x/THGgHIdC/
Notice the $ES moving up here, hours before BTC follows. Why would anyone wait for this or even care? But I digress, that's not what we're here for. How is all that doing anyway?
4h is now potentially bullish, subject to a very small gap for the 200ma on 4h for SPY, and 1d is not even close. tradingview.com/x/scYpDVCN/
1w and 1 month show that we could turn around here. Which is ultra telling considering BTC at insane lows courtesy of people exiting the BTC market because the stock market is maybe okay for now if not just fine. tradingview.com/x/2fLDeSpb/
As a result however, shorts got liquidated or longs took profit, to accommodate the move in either direction. Look on aggr. imgur.com/obbBRzs
Are #shorts getting liquidated? Yes, of course. But was that the target? Given circumstance of nonstop dumps, of course people need a new "answer" to chase. I present to you : #M2 (money supply vs marketcap).
Also: OI roared on the rise, only shorts remain. So... do we go down? imgur.com/70fWCOv . If there's enough retail to liquidate these shorts, we will go up, which is possible for Monday. If not, we go down. Is this bullish? LOL no.
Seriously, just stop this people. This is some wishful garbage mumbo jumbo that will take a week to get debunked and people will move on. $BTC is not a hedge for inflation and never was. It's not sound money, either.
It's an investment, you can make money from it, or you can lose money from it. Just stop deluding yourself. What's coming? Well, this thing right here is the most likely outcome given Friday for the stocks. Hint: #not a #bull #flag. tradingview.com/x/ZybghkIm/
Will some stocks go up and some cryptos? Yes, for a bit. But...yeah. This is not a strong start. I'm eyeing some $PLTR, $WEN (Wendy's Tendies) and all that but do I expect it to last? Not mostly.
In other news, Russia is getting demolished by Ukraine - and so will likely start this show of running into the ground by threatening oil because that's all they have.
So what happens when Russia is no longer a world power, with their Oil exports gone because they're replaced by Kazakhstan? We're possibly in a scenario to find out. reuters.com/business/energ…
Take a guess who we're going to work with and why US reserves are not likely an issue: reuters.com/business/energ…
In short, watch for regulations for crypto (Gensler said they're coming - read in full -
), Oil status, and Russia status. Those will tell us direction.

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More from @nap_trader

Sep 11
Technically Bullish, but for how long? 🤷
#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin Analysis 9/11
So, I guess we're bullish for now. Let me add emphasis again: *FOR NOW*. 4H crossups are significant headwind for at least even short term bullishness. Follow the market.
Macro things: #Ukraine has crushed the F out of #Russia and may have turned the war. So all those macro scenarios are going to come into play very soon, be it bullish or bearish - someone is going to make a move.
Powell spoke 9/8 and basically said we're going to tackle inflation + regulation crypto- , so that alone tells you this is not a bullish market time.
Read 15 tweets
Sep 10
Now comes the real market moves, catalysts are set . How to safely navigate what's to come! ⚠ 
Quarterly Global Market Analysis 9/10 -
This one is going to be big, macro, and significant. Multiple things are happening.
We have a lot of things in flux, and this is a time people are scared. It's time to focus. Not time to open your wallet, nope. But to be prepared for all possible situations ahead of us. Focuses: $CL $SPX $BTC #Ruble $RUBUSD
First, #Russia is screwed and #Ukraine made an extremely significant and successful military play. I've been writing on the professional side about how significant this is, but it cannot be understated the impact of these two countries.
Read 21 tweets
Sep 9
What is this noise?
#Bitcoin/#cryptocurrency market analysis 9/8
I took a day off yesterday, was too tired with life going on. #life. Anyway, let's look at the market.
First, stock market is gapping up into Friday, which usually implies one thing - an explosive Friday to come, depending on how morning goes. $SPY is about 403 overnight via ES futures, but could naturally rebound by morning or go further. Time will tell. tradingview.com/x/Uv8LtlWJ/
$BTC side : $BTC continues to rise as $BTC.D continues to drop. Pretty much zero volume behind the bounce is ultra telling so far in that people are extremely noncommittal. I think a lot of folks want to scalp a bullish high Friday, which is fine. tradingview.com/x/jckEfwXC/
Read 6 tweets
Sep 7
We're bleeding, but not blood on the streets.
#cryptocurrency market/#bitcoin Market Analysis 9/6 . Today, is well, bearish. I think some people did indeed pick up on the $1000 drop for Bitcoin that happened across about 10 minutes.
Of course, those do tend to shock people, as they are not bullish. Meanwhile, some call groups are hilariously moving the goalposts lower. "It's going to stop at 19k, no 18.8k, no 18.6k!" the word for that is #rekt.
I guess this is more like - $800 drop in 15 minutes, or $1000+ in 30 - but still, not too much of a surprise. The big part there is the volume was significant. tradingview.com/x/ZC5BxVHF/
Read 9 tweets
Sep 6
#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin Market Analysis 9/5
I just got back from a nice vacation (Yay), so I'll keep this one short and sweet. A number of people think Oil is going to be the trigger for Bitcoin moving, and I will say it's quite silly.
Let's sum up what has happened in brief links:
Russia: "Why can't we pull out our $100b in China?" But hey you know, #BRICS ever so strong except when reality comes into play. Here's google translate:
"#China "took hostage" $ 100 billion of #Russia's reserves By investing 17% of gold reserves in the #yuan, the Central Bank stated that it was de facto impossible to withdraw money from Chinese assets. To use the yuan, you need permission from China"
Read 13 tweets
Sep 1
Risk Reminders
#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin #Analysis 9/1
First, vacation after today, see ya Monday. Let's start this with some reminders of the existing risk to miners is getting worse. Not many people mention this article. amycastor.com/2022/08/04/bit…
What this means is $MARA and $RIOT among others are at huge risk of default from leveraging their ASICS to buy more bitcoin (yep, you read that right - double leveraged). While they own for the leverage. Anyway, further the year drags on bearish?
The more likely it becomes we're going to see a drop. How does $BTC look? Not bullish. tradingview.com/x/z2T06uyf/
Read 7 tweets

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