Kyle Orton Profile picture
Sep 10 41 tweets 23 min read
Thread: 10 September 2022: Day 199 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update takes note of #Ukraine's advances against #Russia in the Kharkiv Oblast, which the Russians had only lightly defended; there was also likely an element of surprise. The Ukrainians are pressing on in Kherson, too. Image
#Ukraine has liberated Kupyansk, the crucial city of #Russia's occupation administration in #Kharkiv. Her troops can be seen here in the city centre.
Igor Girkin, #Russia's man in occupied eastern #Ukraine after 2014, says the situation is effectively already a strategic defeat. Ukraine has won the battle for the initiative, and now threatens to encircle and annihilate large numbers of Russian troops.
A #Russian Telegram channel reports that the crucial logistical node of Izyum has been liberated from Russian occupation and is now back in #Ukrainian hands.
#pt: While it is not yet confirmed Izyum has been liberated by #Ukraine, this did happen yesterday:
Those who tried to legitimise #Russia's occupation of parts of #Ukraine by pretending it was the humanitarian option because the Ukrainians just can't recapture territory - better "painful political concessions" than lose people pointlessly fighting - need a new talking point.
Andrey Rudenko says #Ukraine's advances in the Kharkiv area threaten the Donbas and could bring total collapse to #Russia's occupation zone in Ukraine.
Last night, the #Russian collaborationist regime in Kharkiv tried to encourage #Ukrainian civilians to flee from the zone into Russia, all while insisting there was no reason to panic.
So, how did #Russia lose in #Ukraine? Two ways: gradually, and then suddenly.
There is a feel to what #Ukraine is doing of Operation STORM, the Croatian recapture of her territory from Serbian occupation, after long preparation to isolate and weaken the enemy, and build up its own strength to sustain the offensive.
Ukraine does not have the same sectarian issue, though: the Krajina in eastern Croatia was under Belgrade's control but it was physically occupied by Croatian citizens who were Serbian Orthodox Christians; the liberating force was largely Roman Catholic.
An unusually self-reflective post from #Russia's neo-Nazi-core "Wagner" unit about Moscow's failure, over 30 years, to build an army capable of modern warfare.
Unclear if the fat lady is clearing her throat over Lyman or has finished the rendition
All analysts have hits and misses, even neo-Nazis planning wars of aggression.
Pretty extraordinary. The main #Russian Telegram channels at the front in #Ukraine asking the leadership in Moscow to cut the shit in its messaging, seeing the pretence that all is well (or the silence) as detrimental to their own mission.
The only reason the Asad-Iran-Russia coalition ever took Palmyra back was due to (indirect) US assistance, too. From March 2017: "The West Helped the Assad Regime and Its Allies Take Palmyra" kyleorton.co.uk/2017/03/04/the…
A vote of confidence ... #Russian Telegram channels see the only way to rescue the situation as #Ukraine's counter-offensive obliterates their lines as using tactical nuclear weapons.
Very moving video of #Ukraine's troops preparing for what we now know to have been an extremely effective counter-offensive against #Russia.
#Russia has "regroup[ed]" from Balakliya and Izyum. God willing, the Russians will regroup to within their own borders soon.
Seven Duma (Parliament) deputies from Saint Petersburg who proposed a bill to charge Putin with high treason have been summoned by the police to fill out protocols on a charge of "discrediting Russia's Armed Forces". rferl.org/a/russian-puti…
#US State Department spokesman Ned Price called for #Russia's government to immediately release imprisoned opposition politician Aleksei Navalny, who was recently sent to solitary confinement. rferl.org/a/us-calls-rus…
Confirmation that #Russia's army is leaving Vovchansk, suggests the reports from an hour ago, that the collaborationist administration had fled the city, were true.
Had wondered as #Ukraine's counter-offensive in Kherson began whether there would be a chain-reaction collapsing #Russia's lines. The whole edifice of Russian power is just so hollow, seemed possible a couple of serious blows would bring the lot down.
The ferris wheel #Putin opened this morning in Moscow has broken down, which seems like a very on-the-nose metaphor for the functionality of his state right about now.
The "Head" of #Russia's puppet republic in Donetsk, Denis Pushilin, gives a rousing speech to boost morale from a speeding care, while definitely not running away.
#Ukraine captures a vast haul of #Russia's equipment in Izyum
Seems that in addition to all the ghanima #Ukraine has captured in the liberated areas, there was a raid across the border into #Russia itself to take some more
#Ukraine's President Zelensky remains very good at this. The right substance and style for the moment.
The statement by #Russia's Defence Ministry spokesman, Igor Konashenkov, with its heavy "Baghdad Bob" overtones, explaining away a catastrophic collapse of defensive lines in #Ukraine as a "regroup", seems likely to live on in meme and song going forward.
Pre-invasion police chief in Kupyansk arrested effectively for treason. #Ukraine is cracking down, which might well impact calculations across the occupied areas: traitors who come back to Ukraine before the army arrests then will have an easier time.
Apparent intercepted call: #Russian soldier approaching #Ukraine to surrender, wants to be sure, and double sure and triple sure before he does, that his balls are not going to be cut off. @DefenceU tries to explain the concept of a law-bound army to him.
#Russian state TV reporter Andrei Medvedev, with a significantly change in tone, says Russians alive watching the disaster in #Ukraine, now know how Russians felt during the darkest days of the Great Fatherland War.

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More from @KyleWOrton

Sep 12
Thread: 12 September 2022: Day 201 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia is gone from #Kharkiv & "struggling to bring sufficient reserves" to reinforce #Kherson, where an "improvised floating bridge" started two weeks ago is unfinished and #Ukraine is hitting the Dnipro River crossings faster than they can be repaired Image
Great moving map shows the stark difference over six months, between March, when #Russia was at its height in terms of territory held in #Ukraine, and yesterday
Read 17 tweets
Sep 11
Thread: 11 September 2022: Day 200 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Ukraine has "continued to make significant gains in the Kharkiv region" over the last 24 hours. Also notes that #Putin has lied about exports of grain from Ukraine. Image
#Putin's warlord-president of #Chechnya, Ramzan Kayrov, coping very hard and threatening further conquests in #Ukraine. Interestingly, this comes after Kadyrov appeared to say he was resigning.
Read 53 tweets
Sep 5
Thread: 5 September 2022: Day 194 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia's "main effort in #Ukraine almost certainly remains its Donbas offensive", rather than reinforcing against the counter-offensive in Kherson. Moscow has had "the most success" in Donetsk recently, but it is still advancing only 0.5 miles per week. Image
Horseshoe theory in action: "Progressive International" leader supporting the nationalist protests in #Czechia and their #Russia-friendly demands to cease support to #Ukraine and restore economic relations with Moscow. Image
Read 15 tweets
Sep 4
Thread: 4 September 2022: Day 193 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Russia continues to suffer "combat fatigue and high casualties" in #Ukraine, leading to low morale and "discipline issues". Problems with pay is a big issue for the Russian Army, as well as lacking basics like food, arms, and even uniforms.
Great map by @bradyafr of #Ukraine's use of HIMARS to ravage #Russia's logistics system.
Read 28 tweets
Sep 3
Thread: 3 September 2022: Day 192 of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
Latest @DefenceHQ update: #Ukraine's "offensive operations" around #Russian-occupied Kherson advance "on a broad front". The operation has "limited immediate objectives", but exploits Russia's weaknesses, and forces Moscow into a choice over deployment of its stretched forces.
Essentially an "Honest Trailers" version of a Russian recruitment video.
Read 36 tweets
Sep 3
Very interesting: Photograph surfaces from #Iran showing three of #Al_Qaeda's most important leaders: Sayf al-Adel, Abu Muhammad al-Masri, and Abu al-Khayr al-Masri. Picture must be from before 2015, when Abu al-Khayr left for Syria. Doesn't look much like house arrest, does it? ImageImage
#pt: From 2018: "Examining Iran's Long Relationship with Al-Qaeda" kyleorton.co.uk/2018/10/26/exa…
#pt: #Al_Qaeda leader Abdullah Rajab Abdurrahman (Abu al-Khayr al-Masri) allegedly worked on fissile material while he was in #Iran. After Abu al-Khayr left in 2015, he went to #Syria, where, in 2017, he became the first kill of the US R9X ("ninja bomb"). kyleorton.co.uk/2017/02/27/al-…
Read 4 tweets

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