TraderNap Profile picture
Sep 18 8 tweets 4 min read
Good data, Bad data
global market #analysis 9/18
Reminder #1, we're still in #yield #inversion on the #US10Y and #US02Y bonds, which won't be changing any time soon. tradingview.com/x/UweZFYmE/
I still am guessing a 1% #rate #hike (100bps) but it could be 0.75% again, who knows. Probably that or larger because I bet the fed will want more breathing room. At some point I'll write on inflation and how people get it wrong, but now's not the time.
Don't forget you still have the bad form of influencers out there trying to just get follows all day, tells you we haven't hit bottom or anywhere near - because he's not telling people how to sell.
@cz_binance of course answers a significant problem of crypto immediately, and on that he's not wrong. Crypto wallets suck. But there isn't an improvement that really exists, because it's not an area people put thought into.
Blockchain miners are ready to follow the market. Yep, not lead it, but follow. Overall that kinda means probably more down. tradingview.com/x/saStB7Jt/
and by follow the market, we mean down. imgur.com/a/PUNF5zO
So, crypto and stocks drop tomorrow seems most probable, even short term.

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More from @nap_trader

Sep 17
1/ Expanding the Macro - a Treatise on what I see
#macro #market analysis 9/17
So first thing I want to point out, is the divergence between wishful @Binance $BTC weekend price and #CME's. Just to knock out crypto quickly - here's the weekend divergence. tradingview.com/x/usR93lCv/
2/ There's 3 ways it goes, but in *decreasing* order of likeliness. 1: we return to that gap to then pick a direction, 2: we tap it for a second upon open tomorrow (18 hours from now) and then continue upwards, or 3: we leave a gap that we fill on 9/21 #FOMC
3/ is $ETH in the same boat? You bet. So that's #crypto for the weekend, for anyone following. Lots of caveats can be applied here to add additional analysis tradingview.com/x/ipsp0FQs/
Read 16 tweets
Sep 16
Friday Fudgery
#Cryptocurrency Market / #Bitcoin Market analysis 9/16
I'm using the words lightly there, but I hope it's quite clear. As it's a quadruple witching friday, I watched trades basically evaporate. It was kind of a mess.
$SPY went up and down all day, thus $BTC as well. tradingview.com/x/Jt1R0JzH/ Notice distinctly how the $BTC responses are slower, because that's what I want to call attention to.
Remember when I talked about billions in liquidity exiting the market faster than sand falls through someone's hand? This is the result. There's nobody trading crypto and so the prices can't really move.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 16
Where do we go? Down, of course.
#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin Market Analysis 9/15
So, our big bearish channel trend got confirmed. tradingview.com/x/mLp5u6eS/ Nothing has changed outside of that, really.
#CPI is slightly bearish #PPI is bearish, #quadruple witching is tomorrow. Looks like people dumped close to a billion dollars of $BTC a couple days ago, and over 5 billion since August.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 12
We are real-time witnessing #Russian collapse
#Cryptocurrency #Market/#Bitcoin Market Analysis 9/12
So, I warned in my quarterly Macro - that I see Russia collapse coming. And I mean, the entire country. This means: even the Russians don't want to serve anymore after the rout.
Read 9 tweets
Sep 11
Technically Bullish, but for how long? 🤷
#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin Analysis 9/11
So, I guess we're bullish for now. Let me add emphasis again: *FOR NOW*. 4H crossups are significant headwind for at least even short term bullishness. Follow the market.
Macro things: #Ukraine has crushed the F out of #Russia and may have turned the war. So all those macro scenarios are going to come into play very soon, be it bullish or bearish - someone is going to make a move.
Powell spoke 9/8 and basically said we're going to tackle inflation + regulation crypto- , so that alone tells you this is not a bullish market time.
Read 15 tweets
Sep 10
Now comes the real market moves, catalysts are set . How to safely navigate what's to come! ⚠ 
Quarterly Global Market Analysis 9/10 -
This one is going to be big, macro, and significant. Multiple things are happening.
We have a lot of things in flux, and this is a time people are scared. It's time to focus. Not time to open your wallet, nope. But to be prepared for all possible situations ahead of us. Focuses: $CL $SPX $BTC #Ruble $RUBUSD
First, #Russia is screwed and #Ukraine made an extremely significant and successful military play. I've been writing on the professional side about how significant this is, but it cannot be understated the impact of these two countries.
Read 21 tweets

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