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Sep 26 11 tweets 4 min read
#Economics, what do we have going on? History lessons.
#Market #Analysis 9/25
A colleague of mine sent this today:
mishtalk.com/economics/stro… .
It even cites what I planned to cite below (Soros vs UK 1992), that's how hilarious this is. Clearly we're all on the same page. It was hot on my mind, as JPY said they were going to sell $USD to buy $JPY.
For a million reasons I intuitively knew this was silly. For one, why not print JPY? For two, why make an openly hostile action towards USD? Stupid. For #3, why not arbitrage your own currency? It's not like any country doesn't do that or hasn't.
Here's looking at you, GBP 1992. investopedia.com/ask/answers/08… (note: people like to quote Buffet, but in reality you should look to Soros). This was referenced in the original.
Why is Japan wrong? Because it's *BAD ECONOMICS*. MMT would like a word, to remind you that BOJ can print fn money. So...........print some goddamned money! It's that simple! Why so? Well, look at Japan's inflation: tradingeconomics.com/japan/inflatio…
Do you see something *very* different than the US here? Yes, you do. 5% inflation. Now, nobody wants inflation to be so bad that you set your money afire, but if somehow JPY being weak is a problem, printing some more to sell for USD...
would be the opposite of "Selling USD to buy JPY". I get what it's supposed to do, but it's also the wrong way to go. I mean Japan: tradingeconomics.com/japan/inflatio… "near 8 year high" or the US:
the US being forecast to continue to inflate through year end. usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/curr…
Meanwhile, macro recession continues as the $GBP craters. tradingview.com/x/JZpVyzbr/ . I don't know all of the issue, but seems like Liz Truss is going to be in some considerable heat.
So the simple words here are : *macro recession*. Things like this will happen.

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More from @nap_trader

Sep 18
Good data, Bad data
global market #analysis 9/18
Reminder #1, we're still in #yield #inversion on the #US10Y and #US02Y bonds, which won't be changing any time soon. tradingview.com/x/UweZFYmE/
I still am guessing a 1% #rate #hike (100bps) but it could be 0.75% again, who knows. Probably that or larger because I bet the fed will want more breathing room. At some point I'll write on inflation and how people get it wrong, but now's not the time.
Don't forget you still have the bad form of influencers out there trying to just get follows all day, tells you we haven't hit bottom or anywhere near - because he's not telling people how to sell.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 17
1/ Expanding the Macro - a Treatise on what I see
#macro #market analysis 9/17
So first thing I want to point out, is the divergence between wishful @Binance $BTC weekend price and #CME's. Just to knock out crypto quickly - here's the weekend divergence. tradingview.com/x/usR93lCv/
2/ There's 3 ways it goes, but in *decreasing* order of likeliness. 1: we return to that gap to then pick a direction, 2: we tap it for a second upon open tomorrow (18 hours from now) and then continue upwards, or 3: we leave a gap that we fill on 9/21 #FOMC
3/ is $ETH in the same boat? You bet. So that's #crypto for the weekend, for anyone following. Lots of caveats can be applied here to add additional analysis tradingview.com/x/ipsp0FQs/
Read 16 tweets
Sep 16
Friday Fudgery
#Cryptocurrency Market / #Bitcoin Market analysis 9/16
I'm using the words lightly there, but I hope it's quite clear. As it's a quadruple witching friday, I watched trades basically evaporate. It was kind of a mess.
$SPY went up and down all day, thus $BTC as well. tradingview.com/x/Jt1R0JzH/ Notice distinctly how the $BTC responses are slower, because that's what I want to call attention to.
Remember when I talked about billions in liquidity exiting the market faster than sand falls through someone's hand? This is the result. There's nobody trading crypto and so the prices can't really move.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 16
Where do we go? Down, of course.
#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin Market Analysis 9/15
So, our big bearish channel trend got confirmed. tradingview.com/x/mLp5u6eS/ Nothing has changed outside of that, really.
#CPI is slightly bearish #PPI is bearish, #quadruple witching is tomorrow. Looks like people dumped close to a billion dollars of $BTC a couple days ago, and over 5 billion since August.
Read 8 tweets
Sep 12
We are real-time witnessing #Russian collapse
#Cryptocurrency #Market/#Bitcoin Market Analysis 9/12
So, I warned in my quarterly Macro - that I see Russia collapse coming. And I mean, the entire country. This means: even the Russians don't want to serve anymore after the rout.
Read 9 tweets
Sep 11
Technically Bullish, but for how long? 🤷
#Cryptocurrency Market/#Bitcoin Analysis 9/11
So, I guess we're bullish for now. Let me add emphasis again: *FOR NOW*. 4H crossups are significant headwind for at least even short term bullishness. Follow the market.
Macro things: #Ukraine has crushed the F out of #Russia and may have turned the war. So all those macro scenarios are going to come into play very soon, be it bullish or bearish - someone is going to make a move.
Powell spoke 9/8 and basically said we're going to tackle inflation + regulation crypto- , so that alone tells you this is not a bullish market time.
Read 15 tweets

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