Lance Roberts Profile picture
Oct 8, 2022 6 tweets 7 min read Read on X
The #BullBearReport is out.
The #market started with a strong #rally, then #stumbled into week's end. With #oversold conditions still intact and CPI next week, the #bulls have a shot at a rally if #inflation shows some signs of cooling.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-rally-s…
Moving forward, YoY comparisons become more challenging at 0.9%, 0.7%, 0.6%, 0.6%, 0.8%, and 1.2% through March 2023. In August, #inflation will drop to 7.9% from 9% in June. Assuming an avg. 0.2% MoM increase, CPI hits the Fed’s 2% target in June 2023.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-rally-s… Image
Despite Friday's rout, the #market did finish the week in positive territory. The deeply oversold indicators turned up and are close to triggering “buy signals.” The market is trading 2-standard deviations below the 50- WEEK moving average.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-rally-s… Image
Investor #sentiment and #position remain extremely negative which has previously been a good setup for a short-term reflexive rally to #sell into.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-rally-s… ImageImage
Simon White noted that the #Zweig breadth thrust was a positive development and, along with other indicators, typically align with short-term #market bottoms.
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-rally-s… Image
The weekly #technical #composite remains in deeply oversold territory. Will we get a #rally next week following the #CPI report?
realinvestmentadvice.com/market-rally-s… Image

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More from @LanceRoberts

Nov 15, 2024
Recently, Paul Tudor Jones made headlines stating that the #debt and #deficits would lead the U.S. into #bankruptcy. As such, he would not own #Government #bonds. We look at the data to see if it supports his claims.
realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog…
The chart below shows the long-term view of short and long-bond interest rates, inflation, and GDP.
Interest rates rose during three previous periods in history.
1-During the economic/inflationary spike in the early 1860s
2-The “Golden Age” from 1900-1929 saw inflation rise as economic growth resulted from the Industrial Revolution.
3-The most recent period was the prolonged manufacturing cycle in the 1950s and 1960s. That cycle followed the end of WWII when the U.S. was the global manufacturing epicenter.
-The current surge in #inflation, and ultimately interest #rates, was not a function of organic #economic growth. It was a stimulus-driven surge in the supply/demand equation following the pandemic-driven shutdown.
realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog…Image
As those #monetary and #fiscal inflows from the #pandemic spending reverse, that support will fade. In the future, we must understand the factors that drive rates over time: #economic growth, #wages, and #inflation. Visually, we can create a composite index of GDP, wages, and inflation versus interest rates.
realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog…Image
Read 6 tweets
Nov 4, 2023
The #BullBearReport is out!
We have suggested a #rally was coming as #markets reached oversold levels. That #rally came with a vengeance following the #FOMC meeting. With #rate #hikes on pause, the #bulls bought everything from #stocks to #bonds. But will the rally last?
Given that the #Fed did little to talk up projections of further #rate hikes, the #market took this as meaning the Fed is likely done hiking rates.
The break of the 200-DMA was reversed on Thursday, and the 50-DMA was breached on Friday. Those actions set the market up for a rally into year-end.

Image
#Sentiment remains negative despite the #rally. Such will provide fuel for a rally into year-end.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-into-yea…
Image
Read 6 tweets
Jul 1, 2023
The #BullBearReport is out!
Last week, we suggested a #market #rally was likely after the #correction to the 20-DMA. That rally took the market to a new 52-week. However, #complacency has become elevated. What is the $VIX telling us now?
realinvestmentadvice.com/complacency-se…
With the #market back to more overbought levels, some #correction is needed to provide a better risk/reward entry point. Using Fibonacci retracement levels, investors should consider adding exposure at 4250 down to the 200-DMA.
https://t.co/mfrneEKHN5realinvestmentadvice.com/complacency-se…
#Investors have become very #bullish on the #market as #FOMO returns. #Volatility has dropped below average, #calloptions are surging, and #sentiment is rising.
https://t.co/4aTJrjYTQnrealinvestmentadvice.com/complacency-se…




Read 7 tweets
Jan 17, 2023
Today's #blog covers why the #pain #trade is likely higher over the next few weeks as #sentiment improves and too much money is offside.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade…
#Bullish optimism is building around:
- #Fed cutting rates
- #Economy will avoid #recession
- #Employment remains strong.
- #Earnings have corrected enough
Risk to that view remains a recession.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade…
It is called the “#paintrade” because it is the opposite of how #investors are currently positioned. Investor sentiment remains historically #bearish despite improvement since the October lows.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-pain-trade…
Read 5 tweets
Dec 13, 2022
Today's #blog is part 2 of our outlook for 2023. Why you will want to own #bonds in the first half and #stocks in the 2nd.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-inves…
The #inversion of 80% of the 10 #economically important yield curves also suggests a recession is likely. The inverted yield curves play an essential role in our 2023 portfolio positioning.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-inves…
So far, investors have mostly overlooked the rate shock impact on the real economy. However, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes have collapsed the composite Economic Composite Index and the 6-month rate of change of the Leading Economic Index.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-inves…
Read 5 tweets
Nov 8, 2022
For an #economy to flourish, and create #prosperity for the majority of participants, there must be a strong and vibrant #middleclass. Today's #blog digs into the disappearance of the economic engine.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i…
The shrinking of the middle class is accompanied by an increase in the share of adults in the upper-income tier from 14% in 1971 to 21% in 2021. At the same time, there was an increase in the share who are in the lower-income tier, from 25% to 29%.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i… Image
Most importantly, and what is often not included in the analysis, is the standard of living gets “paid for” on an “after-tax” basis. When we include taxation, it becomes clear that roughly 80% of America is failing to support the “middle-class” lifestyle.
realinvestmentadvice.com/there-really-i… Image
Read 6 tweets

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