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Oct 16 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
Anti-regime protests in #Iran occurred in at least 22 cities in 16 provinces, although this number is almost certainly higher. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. 1/4 criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…
A major fire broke out at the #EvinPrison in #Tehran on October 15, and the regime used live rounds and tear gas against prisoners and nearby protestors. 2/4
A Persian-language social media account tweeted a political manifesto, calling for a peaceful transition to establish a democratic, secular #Iranian government. 3/4
#IRGC-affiliated Telegram channels claimed that unidentified militants fired six rockets at the al Omar oilfield, which houses US servicemembers, in eastern #Syria. 4/4

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More from @criticalthreats

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Oct 15
NEW | #Putin likely attempted to make a virtue of necessity by announcing that his “partial” mobilization will end in “about two weeks”—the same time the postponed fall conscription cycle is set to begin. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Russian sources continued to claim that #Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations in northeast #Kharkiv Oblast east of #Kupyansk. (2/)
#Russian troops conducted limited ground attacks west of #Kreminna in order to regain lost positions. Russian troops also continued ground attacks around #Bakhmut and #Donetsk City. (3/4)
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Oct 13
CTP’s third thread on #Iran’s state security services discusses some of its vulnerabilities – an expansion on yesterday’s thread on the structure and organization of these security forces. 1/7
The regime’s first major challenge is ensuring the ideological commitment and subordination of its security forces. The regime has seen dissent and defections among low-level security personnel in almost every major protest movement since 1979. 2/7
This dissent and defections have never been large-scale, but have alarmed the regime enough that they have developed increasingly ideological and well-trained forces, such as the LEC Special Units and elite Basij personnel, for protest suppression. 3/7
Read 7 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Oct 13
NEW | #Russia is intensifying efforts to set information conditions to falsely portray #Ukraine as a terrorist state to deflect recent calls to designate Russia as a terrorist state. Read today’s update from CTP and @TheStudyofWar: criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi…
#Russian sources claimed that #Ukrainian troops continued counteroffensive operations toward #Svatove and #Kreminna. Russian forces are continuing defensive operations in this area.
#Russian sources continued to claim that #Ukrainian forces are conducting ground attacks in northwestern and western #Kherson Oblast.
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Oct 13
Supreme Leader Ali #Khamenei addressed the #Iranian protests publicly for the second time on October 12, reiterating his accusation that foreign enemies are responsible for the unrest. criticalthreats.org/analysis/iran-…
#Khamenei likely sought to reaffirm to the political and security establishment his approval of the brutal crackdown while portraying strength. 2/4
Other #Iranian officials are following Khamenei’s lead, ignoring protester grievances and boasting of their tools of repression. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Critical Threats Profile picture
Oct 12
Our second thread on the Iranian state security services explores their structure and organization. Here is what you need to know as #Iran experiences its fourth consecutive week of protests. 1/13 #مهسا_امینی
The regime has built a multilayered security apparatus of military and paramilitary units charged with social control. These units have varying levels of military and ideological training. They cooperate to manage different threats and repress protests. 2/13
The Law Enforcement Command (LEC) is the first layer of the regime’s internal defenses. It is the national police force and performs regular police missions while also controlling social unrest. 3/13
Read 13 tweets
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Oct 12
#Ukrainian forces are continuing an interdiction campaign to target #Russian military, technical, and logistics assets and concentration areas in #Kherson Oblast. Read today’s update from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar. criticalthreats.org/analysis/russi… 1/4 Image
#Russian sources claimed that #Ukrainian troops continued ground attacks in northern and western #Kherson Oblast. 2/4 Image
#Russian sources claimed that #Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensives east of the #Oskil River and in the direction of Kreminna-Svatove. 3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets

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