So, @Jeremy_Hunt now did a full and welcome u-turn on the #minibudget2022. And they are starting to tackle another policy that needs fixing, the #EnergyPriceguarantee #EPG. Why should this happen? This is a story that can ultimately be summarised in these two pictures.... 1/..
On the left, we have a classic end-terrace house. On the right, well, you have a mansion. The big difference: energy consumption. The left needs around 15,000 kWh per year, the right one, at least 70,000 kWh. How does this compare to the average UK household? Well: 2/..
The graph highlights one thing: energy consumption is strongly increasing in household income. But even in the highest income group there is huge variation. 50% of households even in top income group consume less than half as much energy than the top 5% in this group. 3/..
So what does this mean? Well, the EPG disproportionately benefits the better off. How can we quantify this? As economist this falls in the category: what is the counterfactual - what would energy bills have been with and without the EPG. 4/..
The Oct 2022 price cap seems a good anchor as this would have been the guide to energy prices coming from an independent industry regulator Ofgem. We can then simulate energy bills and compute the difference in bills at EPG prices and at Ofgem Oct 2022 market prices. 5/..
What we see is: the EPG (dashed blue) would reduce bills a lot relative to market prices (red solid). But you still see that bills would go up A LOT to last year (green). We are talking about at least GBP 1,300 for the average household. But again, this masks huge variation 6/..
We can compute this also to shed a light on the distribution within income bracket. The EPG energy subsidy is at least GBP 5,000 for the top 5% in the Income bracket > 150k or more than five times as large as the subsidy for 50% of all UK households at GBP 1,000. 7/..
Just remind yourself, we are comparing these two... and, the subsidy is not free of costs: in fact, recent market turmoil points to the question how this is paid for: it is either #taxation, #austerity or #debt. But cake-and-eat-it politics hits a hard ceiling. 8/..
Let me add some more perspective: the # of households in the top 5% energy/top income bracket is around 14,000. So these 14,000 households stand to benefit at least five times as much per household from the EPG than more than 12 million other households. 9/..
The EPG is regressive but also alienates many traditional Tory voters that are in the higher earning brackets. Many of whom do not have a lavish lifestyle but rather are similar in their consumption and lifestyle to a lot of middle income peers. 10/..
I have worked out a much more targeted alternative & there is much more. A paper and briefing should drop next week. Something bigger a week later. But: a stronger, healthier & more sustainable society can arise form this crisis but the answers are not found in the extremes. End.

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More from @fetzert

Sep 27
I start sounding like a broken record. The issue of UK is not primarily due to a high level of taxation but due to poor use of public money & the poor quality public goods bought in return. I have documented this across numerous pieces of careful research... here is a short 🧵⬇️
Exhibit 1: Most of austerity was a drag on growth. In "Did #Austerity Cause #Brexit?" I show that austerity itself was contractionary and the tax that could have been collected on higher incomes without austerity would have easily saved as much as austerity was projected to save.
Exhibit 2: Housing benefit cuts (FYI: these benefits are only so expensive as the UK's economic model is build on housing shortage)... but there weren't much savings as councils had to deal with the fallout: higher homeless prevention spending and putting up people in privately
Read 8 tweets
Jan 25
Does #COVID19 crowd out care for non COVID patients in the #NHS? Has this led to a loss of lives? Are the numbers negligible? The short answers are: yes, yes & no!
Paper ➡️ bit.ly/33XMyHB & a long🧵on how we capture non COVID19 excess deaths & much more ⬇️ 1/n
Lets start with a headline result: we estimate that for every 30 #COVID deaths there is at least one avoidable non COVID excess death in 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 hospitals. To arrive at this we use cool #NHS data which makes for a great #EconTwitter #econometrics #DataScience teaching example. 2/n
The #NHS has population individual level hospital episode data (HES) linked to death certificates. For each admitted patient, they predict P(Death|X). This is an out-of-sample prediction coming from Lasso logistic regression model trained on data from the last 3 years. 3/n
Read 19 tweets
Nov 15, 2021
What is the epidemiological impact of a #falsenegative #COVID test? An important question in a high vaxx/low NPI context, but one that cannot be studied in a experiment for obvious reasons. Enter the UK, a reliable supplier of #naturalexperiments. 🧵⬇️
➡️bit.ly/3DhqQv5 Image
On Oct 15, @UKHSA suspended an #Immensa lab, because of community reports of neg PCR tests following a pos lateral flow. There was loads of excellent reporting e.g. by @rowenamason @tomjs @JamieGrierson. NHS TT estimates that 43,000 individuals may have been given a .. 2/N ImageImage
false negative result most concentrated in South West of England. Even across all of England, a notable increase in both absolute # and relative % of PCR tests matched to a positive LFD tests producing a negative result from early Sept to early Oct 3/N Image
Read 13 tweets
Jun 23, 2021
Today is the 5th year anniversary of the 2016 EU referendum vote in which the UK had narrowly voted to #Leave the European Union. Unlike Trump, the impact is permanent and already caused notable damage. Here is a 🧵 of 🧵 with some past work and deliberations on #Brexit... 1/...
In one of the first papers we asked "Who voted for #Brexit?". The paper is a systematic correlational analysis of what is common to #Leave support across districts and within cities & we also show that a #Brexit model can predict LePen voting. Link: goo.gl/VzBo57 2/
Similarly, we augment the analysis using individual level data. This helps tackle whether correlational district level evidence is due to ecological fallacy. Open access at @ejprjournal goo.gl/sPzzwf 3/
Read 12 tweets
Mar 9, 2021
So I am going to report on some lack of progress about a #FOIA request we launched to @PHE_uk last Nov to make data available on the #Excel error that resulted in 15k #COVID19 cases to not be contact traced in a timely fashion (whatdotheyknow.com/request/region…). The response so far is ...
quite underwhelming. In the paper we reverse engineer the geographic distribution of the missing cases which is far from perfect. We find that places with higher exposure to the contact tracing error saw a notable differential increase in infections and subsequent deaths.
Naturally we would much rather prefer to work with the actual data as the measurement will be more precise. And further, it would allow for a direct measurement of infections among contacts of individuals that were traced with a delay. But @PHE_uk do not consider this is of
Read 5 tweets
Feb 28, 2021
So @UKHofficial did have a look at my paper on #EOHO and #COVID19 - they have gone to some lengths to try to cast doubt about my research, the methods & results (see ukhospitality.org.uk/page/SafeReope…). So here are their point-by-point lines of attack on my work and my response. Thread 🧵⬇️
Point 1: Misunderstanding the research design and aggregate data fallacy 1/
Point 2: Actually, EOHO did not increase restaurant visits that much. 2/
Read 16 tweets

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