Thread by @jseldin

NEW: US to expand footprint in #Estonia

"Yes, there will be more US presence in Estonia fr the coming years" Estonian DefMin Hanno Pevkur tells reporters following a mtg w/@DeptofDefense @SecDef Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon

"It was a very good meeting"

"The US is as always committed to protecting the eastern flank of @NATO, including #Estonia" per Pevkur

That & establishment of NATO divisional HQ "will give the message to #Russia that...NATO will protect each of its territories"

Situation in #Ukraine "very, very difficult" per #Estonia|n DefMin Pevkur

"Still #Russia occupies 20% of Ukrainian territory & the new assets that Russia is using, for example the #Iran|ian drones causing big damage"

NEW: #Estonia's defense minister - visiting #Washington - warns expect more #Russia|n attacks on #Ukraine civilians w/#Iran|ian kamikaze drones

"We can expect more attacks like to this to many cities of Ukraine" per Hanno Pevkur

More: #Russia|n General Sergei Surovikin, now running the war for #Moscow "is well-known as a person who has no dignity or no problem w/shooting at civilian ppl" per #Estonia DefMin Pevkur

Estonia says #Ukraine has been able to shoot down about 50% of the #Iran|ian drones, per DefMin Hanno Pevkur

But "there looking for the new options how to tackle this" he says

NEW: #Russia, #Putin's threats to use tactical nukes looks for now like a bluff, per #Estonia's defense minister to reporters in #Washington

"At the moment, I don't believe it" per Hanno Pevkur "I don't see any strategic goal for that..."

More on why #Russia is-for now-unlikely to turn to tactical #nukes: "They have put the fear onto Ukraine already w/all these bombings" per #Estonia's Pevkur

"The only thing that can happen is that they will lose their silent supporters like #China"

Impact of #Russia's efforts to mobilize 300,000 reservists to fight in #Ukraine - "mobilized ppl who were sent to the front line are just the numbers on the paper" per #Estonia DefMin Pevkur

"#Ukrainians have the same capability to bring more ppl to the front line" per #Estonia's Pevkur "And we have to understand that there is a huge difference of motivation"

re: impact - or lack thereof - of #Russia's mobilization

Can #Ukraine take back all the territory lost since February?

"I believe that yes, they will" per #Estonia's Pevkur "It's just a matter of time & a matter of do they have enough equipment to do that, weaponry..."

#Ukraine's success also depends on having right equipment for the winter - "do they have clothing? Do they have tents, to have the generators, heaters to be on the battlefield to be ready to to go to these counterattacks?" per #Estonia DefMin Pevkur

As for the state of #Russia's military - most countries believe #Russia will be able to regenerate capabilities tin 2-4 years, per #Estonia's Pevkur

https://twitter.com/jseldin/status/1542276118622896129?s=20&t=082kpWjcdHAr96cNvMfdsg

#Russia - "we have to understand that they still have firepower" per #Estonia's Pevkur "They still have the capacity & capabilities to conduct different attacks"

"They have capabilities also close to our borders..."

#Russia|n escalations in #Ukraine will not go unanswered, per #Estoni DefMin Hanno Pevkur

"There has to be an answer to each escalation" he says "Of course, they [Ukraine] would like to do it much quicker"