Thread by @elisabethmalom1

🧵First cover story for @DTRmag: side-by-side comparative analysis of the different loitering munitions that have been used by #Ukraine and #Russia in the war. The more success LM have, the greater their visibility to potential Western users & higher likelihood of their adoption

2. Ukrainian forces have primarily relied on foreign systems provided by international allies: the Switchblade 300 and soon Switchblade 600 from AeroVironment (US); Phoenix Ghost from Aevex Aerospace (US); and the Warmate from WB Group (Poland).

3. UAF have used 150+ Warmates and Polish firm conducts regular deliveries of new stock to #Ukraine. Switchblade 300, which has been highly coveted by the press, hasn't had the kind of ‘game-changing’ effects on the battlefield many armchair observers were breathlessly predicting

4. However, when considering claims made that #Switchblades are malfunctioning, it is important to remember that they are designed to fall to the ground and disarm if, after 15 minutes of flight, its operator has not found an appropriate target.

5. Should the conflict continue to draw out, #Ukraine will field and introduce its own domestically-built loitering munitions. Two Ukrainian manufacturers currently produce such systems: Athlon Avia, with its ST-35 Silent Thunder and CDET with the RAM II.

6. Before long-range Iranian LM were introduced in the war, it appeared that #Russia was using a lower number of kamikaze drones and thus not achieving the same level of impact as Ukrainian forces.

7. Shahed-136s have primarily been used against predetermined stationary targets to replace declining Russian stocks of cruise missiles. Lighter, cheaper+in greater numbers than Russia’s 450kg Kh-101 cruise missile, they can be launched from #Crimea/#Belarus and hit deep into UKR

8. #Russia does possess # domestically-built LM, although it has struggled to up prod. to keep pace with battlefield expenditure. Unveiled in 2019, the KYB is manufactured by Zala Aero. While allegedly heavier with longer endurance than Switchblade 300, it has lower range & speed

9. More visible has been the Zala Lancet-3 loitering munition, with a modernised version seemingly being used. At 12kg it is lighter than Switchblade 600 with reportedly a similar endurance and range.

10. The Zala #Lancet-3 has been said to achieve the best success rate when used simultaneously with reconnaissance UAVs operating at high-altitudes to detect targets, which then transmits coordinates to its operators.

11. Looking ahead at the future of loitering munitions, the more success they have in the current Ukraine-Russia conflict, the greater their visibility to potential Western users. The proliferation of these systems will also likely motivate other nations to develop their own.