Tony Seba Profile picture
Nov 3 24 tweets 22 min read
“Solar is the cheapest form of #EnergyGeneration on the planet, unsubsidized. Solar is the cheapest source of #energy in history. Nothing else is as cheap as #solar — today.”
“Solar is so cheap that the total costs are lower than just the #OperatingCosts of #coal, #nukes, #oil, or #gas generation… that’s today! Even if you get that gas #PowerPlant for free, the costs of running that power plant are higher than all the costs of #solar.”
“For purely economic reasons, #solar is already disrupting everything else.”
“Solar costs improved by 82% in the 2010s.

Shocking! Nobody could have predicted it, right?

In fact, I did predict it — in 2010 — in an op-ed for the @sfchronicle.”

sfgate.com/green/article/…
“Today, in America, 90% of the #generation projects that are waiting to be interconnected to the grid are #solar or #wind. And 98% of #storage is #batteries.

Solar, Wind and Batteries (#SWB) are eating everything.”
“What I call #GODparity (generation-on-demand) is when the cost of you generating your own #energy with rooftop #solar (whether it’s residential or commercial) falls below the cost of #transmission.”
“Even if #utility-scale #generation is zero, when you add the #transmission, it’s still gonna be higher than self-generation.

And we’re already there!”
“Solar & wind are the cheapest source of #energy. We expect the combination of solar, wind & batteries (#SWB) to be 70% cheaper by 2030. This is going to change everything. What do you think is going to happen? There is no reason to use anything else. #Disruption is inevitable.”
“We ran the numbers. Yes, you can have #EnergySystems that are 100% solar, wind, and batteries (#SWB).

Not only can you have that system, it’s also the cheapest possible #energy #generation system on the planet. Period.

Nothing else comes close.”
“There is a nonlinear trade-off between #generation and #storage. We call that the ‘#CleanEnergy U-Curve’.

The least-cost system would have anywhere from 3-5x more generating capacity, depending on geography, than the existing conventional #energy system.”
“Nowhere on the planet have we found a place that needed more than a few days of #storage. Anyone who sells the idea of #SeasonalStorage is not looking at the evidence.”
“We have so much more #capacity to generate the #demand, we’re going to generate vast amounts of #energy in addition to meeting existing demand. And that’s superabundant, zero-marginal-cost energy.”

#SuperPower #PhaseChangeDisruption
“Superabundant #CleanEnergy changes everything. And it’s not just disruptive to #ElectricPower, it is #disruptive to all forms of #energy.”
“But can you do this in #Alaska? — Yup, you can.

You can meet 100% of the #ElectricPower and #energy demand in Alaska with just solar, wind and batteries (#SWB), even 30 miles north of the Arctic Circle.”
“What about #Germany? Can they do 100% #SWB?

Yes, they can, with about 110h of battery storage — but they need a lot of #solar. In fact, they need more solar than wind.

There is no need for #SeasonalStorage.”
#Germany would be self-sufficient. They don’t need to import anything — gas, or whatever. They don’t need to be held hostage for their #energy needs.”
#India has amazing geography for #solar, #wind, and #batteries (#SWB). India’s #electricity costs can be $0.01 per kilowatt-hour and all they would need is about ONE DAY of battery #storage. India can be an #energy #SuperPower.”
“The economics of #SWB are #disruptive, because it’s a U-curve, not a straight line.

Essentially, what you get is a 20% additional incremental investment that can return 200-300% more #energy.”
“Think about it. What #investment can you make that if you make a 20% incremental investment, it’s going to return 200%-plus more #SuperPower?

No form of extraction resource energy can compete with this.

None. Period.”
@amazon created a vast #information #technology #infrastructure, but they used it just five weeks of the year — the holiday shopping season. They overbuilt capacity for the rest of the year. Let’s call it #SuperDataCenter. And thus, @awscloud was born. A trillion $$$ business.”
“What are the #BusinessModel #innovations that are going to open up because of #SuperPower?

The incumbents won’t see it. They see #SuperPower as a liability.

But the entrepreneurs — what are the new products and services that can be built?”
“New England: 20% additional investment, 200% additional #SuperPower. This is #NewEngland. This changes economic development.”
#Texas: A 100% #SWB system with 20% incremental investment and 479 TWh additional #SuperPower could meet all of today’s electricity demand AND could power every data center, every @Bitcoin miner in the world, and they would still have 106 TWh for industrial or other purposes.”
“That is #SuperPower. It’s #FreeEnergy.

It changes everything: water desalination, waste, manufacturing..

It has geopolitical consequences!”

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