Increasing momentum on NE #Syria repatriations is welcome news -- but to take full advantage of it, the repatriation process needs to be made much easier.
Most cases, from start to finish, can take 12-18 months, which is far too long -- most of the obstacles are in NE #Syria.
There's also a clear need for more centralized multinational leadership on the al-Hol/Roj crisis -- the @ICRC have established a special coordinator's office & the US Govt now has a senior inter-agency working group.
But there's no international leader to better coordinate.
@ICRC And let's not forget the FAR greater challenge:
- 27,500 Iraqis
- 18,000 Syrians
#Iraq returns are moving well, but at their current pace, will take 5-6yrs to complete.
#Syria returns aren't happening, as most left originate from #Assad-held areas.
@ICRC Placed into context, the al-Hol/Roj & detainee crisis is simply unprecedented.
- In 2001-2, the U.S. put ~780 detainees in self-contained #Guantanamo & **20yrs later,** we still have 35 left.
- Today, we have 56,000 women/kids & 10,000+ male detainees in NE #Syria, amid war.
@ICRC Since the Spring, @MiddleEastInst & @ICSR_Centre have worked intensively on the al-Hol/Roj crisis -- we've seen ground for optimism, but enormous challenges remain, most little known.
This is not a crisis that can be left unaddressed -- for clear humanitarian & security reasons.
@ICRC@MiddleEastInst@ICSR_Centre As repatriations occur, slowly, the threat of #ISIS assault on al-Hol, Roj & ~20 makeshift prisons is rising, markedly.
The US -- with some allied support -- is working to reinforce security.
The @UN's Alena Douhan (from #Belarus) just wrote a 6,500-word report on sanctions & human rights in #Syria.
She visited #Syria for 12 days -- but only spent time in #Assad-held areas.
Her conclusion?
Lift all sanctions. Finance reconstruction. Nothing was the regime's fault.
@UN That the @UN calls Douhan an "independent human rights expert" is staggering.
She made no effort to visit areas not controlled by #Assad's regime & goes out of her way to thank the regime for how "transparent & constructive" it was during her visit.
Yes, I bet they were.
@UN Throughout her 6,500-word report, the @UN's "expert" makes repeated citations to "data & reports received during my visit."
Guess what? All that "transparent" data blames #Syria's ills on foreign powers. There's a surprise.
But our "expert" doesn't question that. Of course not.
As #Syria fatigue sets in & concerns over refugee flows increase, some states within the #EU have begun pushing hard for a softer stance towards #Assad's regime -- some are even engaging.
The #EU itself may not change its policy, but actions by member states could pull it apart.
Concern within & between core #EU member states has risen markedly in recent months -- it's why I wrote this @ForeignPolicy piece.
Arguing that #Ukraine will deter internal #EU division on #Syria is not just wrong -- it's being proven inaccurate almost daily in #Brussels.
@ForeignPolicy Again, the #EU is unlikely to change its long-established policy on #Syria anytime soon -- but actions taken by an increasingly long list of individual states is already beginning to undermine the credibility & practical value of the #EU's official position.
Last decade, the #Obama admin chose diplomacy with #Russia, betraying #Syria's opposition & abandoning millions in favor of a hopeless mission.
To see those who defended that policy -- while slamming those of us who critiqued it -- now doing a 180 is galling, to say the least.
Whether in 2013 after 1,000 civilians were killed by nerve gas; or 2015 when #Russia intervened; or 2017 when we submitted to #Moscow's "de-escalation" ruse -- the #Obama admin line, across the board, was:
- 'You want WW3? Really?'
- 'Challenging #Russia is just impossible.'
The #Obama admin's appeasement of #Russia & repeated insistence that #Putin was a logical actor with whom we could reach peaceful compromise damned #Syria into intractable misery -- & contributed to much bigger knock-on effects:
#Putin’s put Gen. Sergey Surovikin in command of the whole #Ukraine campaign — he’s a brutal, calculated leader.
It was Surovikin who coordinated the unilateral violation of 3/4 of #Syria’s “de-escalation zones,” methodically crippling the opposition & sealing #Assad’s survival.
#Ukraine clearly presents a challenge of completely different proportions to #Syria — but seeing Surovikin promoted to lead in #Ukraine is yet more evidence of just how *central* #Putin’s war in #Syria has been to his wider international ambitions.
@ckubeNBC@carolelee@MiddleEastInst@ICSR_Centre@StateDeptCT The past 6 months has seen a tidal change in momentum on what we're calling 'the detainee dilemma' -- there's a growing consensus to repatriate women & kids, with 3+ European govts planning repatriation ops this month alone & #Australia doing a 180° shift to do so too.