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Andreas Umland Profile picture
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Nov 24 • 4 tweets • 5 min read
Many Western observers assuming that #Ukraine can & should exchange land for peace underestimate neo-Soviet utilitarianism. #Russian leaders engage in #aggressions because they generate victories that are popular with many #Russians. /1
@SCEEUS_UI @Konflikt_Sicher @DGO_Berlin
Victories in #Moldova, #Chechnia, Georgia, #Crimea, Syria, and the Donbas did not satisfy Russia. They triggered appetite for more victories. If #Russia is provided with another victory, this will not bring peace but merely provide time to prepare for achieving more victories. /2
#Odesa, #Pavlodar, #Belarus, #Narva.... - you name it. Aggression works, both internationally and domestically. Obtained lands confirm the utility of aggression. Peace is necessary to prepare the next victory. Concessions feed aggressiveness & will not satisfy the appetite. /END
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More from @UmlandAndreas

Andreas Umland Profile picture
Nov 19
Perhaps, the best strategy to help #Ukrainians now is to improve the transportation infrastructure between #Ukraine and the #EU. Many individuals, initiatives, and organizations ready to help and to take the risk will use new trains and roads to flexibly do what is necessary. /1
One could imagine direct high speed @Ukrzaliznytsia trains from @rzeszow_airport & other EU airports near Ukraine's western border to Kyiv or even further east, and with direct flights to these airports from Berlin, Brussels, London, Paris, Stockholm, New York, Toronto, etc. /2
A strategy to enable Ukrainians to better help themselves as well as to ease the activities of thousands of governmental and non-governmental pro-Ukrainian structures can have cumulative & spill over effects going beyond what one can currently imagine./END
Read 4 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Nov 18
#G20Indonesia2022 summit declaration on #Russia's war against #Ukraine: "We reiterated our national positions as expressed in other fora, including the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly,.../1
consilium.europa.eu/media/60201/20…
@g20org @Indonesia_G20 @G20china @G20Turkey2015 Image
...which, in Resolution No. ES-11/1 dated 2 March 2022, as adopted by majority vote (141 votes for, 5 against, 35 abstentions, 12 absent) deplores in the strongest terms the #aggression by the #RussianFederation against #Ukraine.../2
...and demands its complete and unconditional withdrawal from the territory of Ukraine. Most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing facilities in the global economy.../3
Read 8 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Oct 17
Zutreffende Beobachtung. Es war insbesondere seit 2014 skandalös, was und wer alles in den Medien als legitim zum Thema Ukrainekrieg präsentiert wurde. Teils wurde der Bock zum Gärtner gemacht und es der kriegstreibenden Partei erlaubt, öffentlich sein Opfer zu diskreditieren. /1
Repräsentanten russischer Staatsorgane und -medien wurde über Monate allwöchentlich eine Bühne in öffentlich-rechtlichen sowie privaten deutschen Medien geboten, um ihre explizite Ukrainverleumdung und implizite Kriegshetze (teils GEZ-gebührenfinanziert) zu verbreiten. /2
Nicht genug, dass deutsche Medien damt eine imperialistische Propagandakampagne zur Vorbereitung, Rechtfertigung und Begleitung von notdürftig verschleierten militärischen Überfällen, verschiedenen Gebietsannexionen und Staatsterror gegen ukrainische Zivilisten unterstützten. /3
Read 12 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Oct 15
THREAD: An intriguing appointment
1. Russia's new commander of the so-called special military operation in #Ukraine, #SergeySurovikin, led at Moscow in August 1991 a military unit bloodily defending a #Soviet imperialist usurpation to preserve the empire.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergey_Su…
2. His harshness (#Russian: #surovost') saved, however, neither the 1991 coup nor the #USSR. Rather, it hastened the #Soviet #collapse that year. Chances are that #Surovikin may now accomplish the same bloody trick for #Putin's #neoimperial project and the #RussianFederation.
3. #GeneralSurovikin may one day enter history books as the man who unintentionally destroyed two empires.
@SCEEUS_UI @Konflikt_Sicher @GSPSipo @TerekMedia @ictopyk @RusVerstehen @LawUkrainian @russia_matters @4freerussia_org @freerussiahouse @freerusinst @InModernRussia #Russia
Read 4 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Oct 10
Are the #Ukrainians really THAT good? - A thread:
1./ This is the second time that #Ukraine's security services have, according to the #Kremlin's narrative, performed a miracle:
2./ On 20 August, they exploded a bomb killing Daria Dugina in the Odintsovsky District where Putin's residence Novo-Ogariovo is located. On 8 October, they blew up a truck loaded with explosives on the Kerch Strait Bridge, one of the world's most well-protected infrastructures.
3./ After almost a quarter of a century under Putin's reign, the FSB was, according to this story, not able to prevent either of these two daring Ukrainian actions, at a time when Russia wages a war of annihilation against Ukraine.
Read 4 tweets
Andreas Umland Profile picture
Oct 6
Who killed #Dugin's daughter?
The version of @iponomarev that a left wing #Russian terrorist group did the assassination of #DariaDugina (in case it actually happened, as reported) is more plausible. /1
nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/…
The #Ukrainian security services have other things to do these days than risking the life of their agents by assassinating #Russian uncivil society activists in Moscow. /2
The #Dugin family was and is a non-trivial public actor, but constitutes an intellectual rather than physical target for #Ukraine. /END
@Konflikt_Sicher @TerekMedia @FFRAFAction @network_eman @GSPSipo @StimmeUkraine @CPD_UA @LawUkrainian @ictopyk @A_SHEKH0VTS0V
Read 4 tweets

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