Thread by @TimInHonolulu

1. #Syria: No recent reports of Turkish attacks beyond the reported bombing of #Managh airbase near #Afrin and harassing fire in the #Darbasiyah district. A review of the Turkish media found nothing in the three main English daily papers. The Turkish language Ankara Gazeti

2. had an article quoting DM #Akar that Tukey's actions are legal under international law presumably reaction to reports where he was seen admitting to using #chemicalweapons in #Iraq. Not a very strong position and could indicate that behind-the-scenes diplomatic engagement is

3. not very positive for the Erdogan regime. #Turkey has air power and heavy guns but a poorly trained conscript army that will be chewed up and spit out by the US SOF trained SDF in urban warfare. Erdogan may have played his hand in the belief that he could extract concessions

4. of more land from #SDF but he made the big mistake to threaten #Kobane. Having reported on the battle for Kobane well-before the US began to provide air and material support in 2014, I learned that the #Syrian #Kurds will fight to the last fighter to defend Kobane.

5. So for now I expect Erdogan to focus on the area near #Afrin and try to bite off a bit more of that territory as evidenced by the incursion of armor and air attack at Menagh. The #SDF is not as strong in that area as in the #AANES administered areas to the east but I also

6. expect that the SDF will reinforce and hold at all costs. Turkey's bombing will inflict more civilian casualties and destroy more desperately needed civilian infrastructure unless the US imposes a no-fly zone. The @POTUS #Biden administration is still

7. focused on the #Finland/#Sweden @NATO accession in the belief that in time #Erdogan will relent. I think this is a mistake but only time will tell. For now Erdogan approaches the election season with a potential civil war in the east and at some point he

8. may decide that Kurdish #genocide is bad politics. But for now the border areas are dangerous and Turkey's attacks deep in Syria even near US forces creates problems not just for Erdogan but for the Biden administration that does not want to have a loss of the

9. #WarOnTerror on his score sheet heading into a difficult Congressional balance that has generally shown strong support for the Syrian Kurds, Ezidi and Christians who are defending the Turkish invasion and annexation of

10. northern Syria to create an Al-Qaeda and ISIS terrorist mini-state protected by a @NATO member engaged in ethnic cleansing of Christians and Kurds.