• Rates, inflation, dollar, employment ↑
• Geopolitical tensions
• $VIX above TL and 20DMA
• All indices broke below 20DMA
• Negative #Gamma regime
• Dealers are now net short
•Quadruple witching: large negative stack at 3900
$ES_F $SPX $SPY
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
•Commodities/Oil/ $DXY are ↓
• Indexes on lower weekly volume
• Breadth indicators still holding
• Indexes are at important supports
• Seasonality favors ↑movement
• Lower #CPI would push the market ↑
• Market ↑ on 50 bps rate hike
•Decisive week, all about #Gamma-Quadwitching
• $GEX may change after #CPI and #FOMC
• Still looking for an up market EOY
•We'll change stance with breaks below these levels:
$SPX ↓ 3900
$DJI ↓ 33000 #S5TH ↓ 50% #S5FI ↓ 70%
•CPI could come low #SPX
Tough week ahead
Quadruple witching will dictate action. Those options trade through Thursday, and settle at Friday's opening prices, most of the hedging will be done on Thursday
• Rates, inflation, dollar, employment ↑
• Geopolitical tensions
• $VIX at support, #SPX at resistance
• $VVIX is extremely oversold
• #Nasdaq composite rejected at 100DMA
• Dealers are now net short
• $DJT is lagging $DJI
$ES_F $SPX $SPY
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
•Commodities/Oil/DXY are ↓
• Excepting $NDX major indices are above 200DMA, all above 20, 50 and 100DMA
•Breadth indicators are bullish
• Seasonality favors move↑
• $FAANG bullish monthly candle
• $DJI to continue leadership
• $Gamma is + #SPX
•High rates, inflation, dollar
•Powell, and 8 more FEDs are coming
•Geopolitical tensions
• $VIX, $VVIX extremely oversold
• $FAANG struggling with 50DMA
• #Nasdaq rejected at 100DMA
• $RUT under 200DMA
• Short sellers at $SPX 200DMA
$ES_F
NEXT WEEK
The Bull's take
•Commodities/Oil/DXY are ↓
•Indices are above 50DMA
• $DJI to continue leadership
•Breadth indicators are very ↑
•Black Friday record sales
• Seasonality favors ↑ move
• $VIX and $VVIX in strong ↓
• $SMH $XLF $XTN $XLV $XLE ↑
•High rates, inflation & dollar
•Hawkish #FED minutes coming
•Geopolitical tensions
• $VIX, $VVIX at support
• $FAANG struggling with 50DMA
• #Nasdaq rejected at 100DMA and it's back below 200WMA
•Dealers are near net short
•Commodities/Oil are ↓
•All índices are above 20DMA
• $DJI to continue leadership
•Breadth indicatorsa are bullish
• Week down on low volume
• Turkey day seasonality favors up move
• $VIX and $VVIX bounce failed