Thread by @LanceRoberts

Today's #blog is part 2 of our outlook for 2023. Why you will want to own #bonds in the first half and #stocks in the 2nd.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-inves…

The #inversion of 80% of the 10 #economically important yield curves also suggests a recession is likely. The inverted yield curves play an essential role in our 2023 portfolio positioning.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-inves…

So far, investors have mostly overlooked the rate shock impact on the real economy. However, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes have collapsed the composite Economic Composite Index and the 6-month rate of change of the Leading Economic Index.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-inves…

Since early 2022, we warned @earnings @estimates remain excessively high relative to what the @economy will generate in 2023. With rates and inflation eroding economic activity, forward earnings estimates must adjust lower.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-inves…

Crucially, the Fed controls the short end of the curve, but the economy and inflation control the long end.
realinvestmentadvice.com/the-2023-inves…