Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #yieldcurve

Most recents (13)

The #RealInvestmentReport is out!
The #rally that started 3-weeks ago ended abruptly as concerns of #inflation, the #Fed and rising #recession risk spooked #investors. With the Fed set to hike #rates next week, we increased hedges and cash last week.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as…
After struggling at the 38.2% resistance level, #inflation, #recession risks, and the #Fed spooked #investors last week. #Market now retesting previous lows. Now back to short-term oversold, looking for a small bounce next week to add to #short #hedges.
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as… Image
With the #Fed tightening their #balance sheet and hiking #rates, the 10-year yield is starting to top. Much like we saw in 2018, when the Fed breaks something, yields will fall quickly on the long-end (#yieldcurve inversion and #recession.)
realinvestmentadvice.com/rally-fails-as… Image
Read 7 tweets
1/ Préparez prochainement à une rotation de grande ampleur vers la #value. Car en effet elle est inévitable. La question n'est pas de savoir quand ça se produira mais quand. M. le Marché n'aime pas le changement. Les investisseurs #FOMO l'apprendront à leurs dépens. #inflation
2/ Ce que j'en suis sûr, c'est que cette rotation vers la #value se fera dans un contexte dévastateur pour les investisseurs qui bercent naïvement dans le #FED Put. Malheureusement, ce dernier laissera place à un FED Collar.
3/ $TSLA $AAPL $FB $AMZN $MSFT & Co ont tellement profité des politiques monétaires très accommodantes des banques centrales. Et peu importe si leurs fondamentaux intrinsèques sont bons ou pas. Je m'attends à des gros dégagements, et donc un transfert de richesse vers la #value.
Read 15 tweets
DoubleLine founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents:

Just Markets 2022 - I Feel Young Again

Today at 1:15pm PT, register here: event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?…

#macro #markets #stocks #FX #bonds #commodities #rates #inflation #Fed #QE #bitcoin

Live recap thread⬇️
Jeffrey Gundlach: 2021 might end up running 7% year on the CPI

#inflation #QE #Powell #fed #hikes #rates
Jeffrey Gundlach: Low interest rates coupled with inflation generating negative interest rate.

#JustMarkets2022 #CPI #QE #Fed
Read 48 tweets
What’s a yield curve? Why is it important? Why the inverted relationship btw bond yields and prices? And why do investors keep obsessing about it?

Everything you wanted to know about bond yields and the yield curve but were too afraid to ask – explained 😊 (27-point thread)👇🧵
1/ You’re probably aware that the 10-Y T-bill yield shot up from 0.5% in July ‘20 to 1.1% in Jan ’21, and then to its 1.7% March peak.
It fell back to 1.2% in Jul, shot up to 1.6% in mid-Oct, and is jumping around from one inflation report to the next.

Why does this matter?
2/ What does it even mean when bond yields rise?

Usually, it is a sign that demand is moving away from T-bills and into other higher-return assets, which is what typically happens during recoveries.

But this time, however, this is also due to higher #inflation expectations.
Read 28 tweets
What is going on in the #treasury market? 10 year treasury just hit 1.13%. Yet my fair value model has it at 1.75% (incorporates Copper/Gold and other ratios - r2 of 90%+) #bonds #yields #YieldCurve ImageImage
This is right as fears of growth slowing down are coming up #jobs #ADP
usnews.com/news/economy/a…
Yet, the #ISM Manufacturing PMI is still in a highly expansionary state at 59.1 Image
Read 15 tweets
Is there an incoming policy error by the Federal Reserve? $DXY #FederalReserve #Dollar #Policy #Fed

Thread 1/
Over the past several weeks, we have seen significant Central Bank actions globally. This reflects a market flush with cash and a desire by the Federal Reserve to hold short-term rates positive. 2/
Mid-June 2021 FOMC Summary:
1. Unchanged rate and QE policy
2. Reverse Repo rate increase to 5bps
3. IOER increase to 15 bps
4. Dot plot showing rate hikes sooner than expected
3/
Read 17 tweets
One noteworthy aspect of the #COVID19 market has been the success with which the #Fed & other #centralbanks have been able to stem the “Covid Crash” and then help control the recovery. The current backdrop reminds me a bit of the 1942-1946 #QE cycle. Let’s take a look. (THREAD)
1/ After the Great Depression, the government went into high gear during WWII and, in the process, ran up huge government debt. Federal debt as a percent of #GDP jumped to 116% from 39% during the 1st half of the 1940s.
2/ Not only did the Fed monetize the debt by increasing its balance sheet 10-fold, it repressed the entire #yieldcurve by capping short rates at 3/8% & long rates at about 2.5%. #Inflation ran up but, with the #Fed repressing rates at low levels, real rates went negative.
Read 24 tweets
#RBIPolicy at 12pm today,is likely to keep status quo on #REPO rate, which was last lowered by 40bps in May 2020,to 4%

In 2020,REPO cut by a total of 115bps

In 2019 REPO cut by 135bps

What may weigh on #MPC's mind is #Inflation,which was 6.09% in June 2020 Vs 5.84%,in March'20
Some like #ICRA predicting 25bps REPO cut,saying #RBI may want to be ahead of the curve,despite build up of inflationary pressures

Well,10 Yr #BondYield was 5.83% y'day

Today 10 Yr@5.84%--Bond markets are clearly not expecting rate cut

#REPO at 4%,is already lowest in 20yrs
As expected, #RBIPolicy leaves #REPO& Reverse REPO unchanged

Right thing to do,as further reduction in rates at this stage, would have distorted #YieldCurve

Already,3 month #MCLR of #SBI is 6.65%& 1 yr at 7%

#MonetaryTransmission is happening,so more cuts not needed currently
Read 5 tweets
#RBI cut by 40bps each of these👇
#Repo rate to 4%
#ReverseRepo to 3.35%
#BankRate to 4.25%

Decision was reached after 5:1 vote,with #ChetanGhate,lone voice calling for 25 bps cut

#MPC meet was held ahead of schedule from 3rd-5th,June

#EMI #moratoroum extended by 3 more months
Moratorium extension till 31st August 2020,is both timely &reflective of @narendramodi govt's alacrity--Big relief to #MiddleClass

Measure to convert #moratorium interest payment into #TermLoan payable in FY21,is helpful

This will reduce #NPAs &stress on banks' balance sheets
#RBI's cut in #Repo will reduce cost of funds&extension of #moratorium will be supportive of financial stability;#Rates across #YieldCurve will move lower from current levels

Fall in #ReverseRepo rate will disincentivise banks from #hoarding #liquidity&coax them to lend

#Covid
Read 10 tweets
Recent actions by the @federalreserve have been awe-inspiring; I’m not sure what words would be stronger than that- but they’re required.
The #Fed has gotten at interest #rates, the #mortgage market, the financing markets, and the #Treasury market (and particularly the functioning of the off-the-run-issues).
Specifically, tonight we’ve seen an historic 100 basis point #policy rate cut (and a commitment to maintain it until conditions normalize), #bank borrowing from the discount window cut 150 bps, to 0.25%, with term #funds to be offered…
Read 8 tweets
For the second time this week, we’ve seen a greater than 7% #market decline in SPX; the @CBOE’s index of equity market volatility resides in the 60s, far above historical averages.
Further, meaningful fiscal #policy support may come down the road, but as of right now #political gridlock in Washington continues to be the order of the day.
For these reasons, we think that the @federalreserve is very likely to step up to the plate again with further policy easing, and sooner rather than later, in our estimation.
Read 7 tweets
1/4 To be clear on the #YieldCurve, as there's way too much discussion about its inversion and what it means when it's really simple. Since banks borrow at short-rates & lend (receive) long rates, if the yield curve inverts for an extended period of time, 2/4
2/4 banks will naturally restrict lending activity (as net interest margins, or "NIMs," will be negative and thus the banks would lose money making new loans). Credit conditions are the primary driver of short-term changes in aggregate demand. 3/4
3/3 Short-term economic performance is highly reliant on credit conditions. If banks tighten up and stop lending, overall spending falls and in turn the value of things like cars, houses, and capital equipment (often used to secure loans) falls in response to reduced demand. 4/4
Read 6 tweets
#CBOE #VIX #volatility index, also known as #WallStreet's "fear gauge" records biggest one-day spike in 10 months
MSCI’s All-Country World Index, which tracks #shares across 47 countries, fell for a six straight day on Monday - marking its longest losing streak this year.
Read 10 tweets

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