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Joseph Bahout باحوط Profile picture
@jobahout
Dec 24, 2022 • 8 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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En guise de cadeau de Noël,l’inimitable Gouverneur de la #Banque_Centrale #Libanaise livre (par les bons soins d’@Entreprendre & d’@Icibeyrouthnews) à ses compatriotes & au monde un beau paquet d’énormités surréalistes.

Florilège & morceaux choisis plus bas;texte intégral aussi:
Et pan dans le bec du @IMFNews @IMFLive !
Et pan pour le taux de change!
Parler des inégalités; quelle effronterie!! 😳
Le Gouverneur qui a inventé la “Cashless Cash Economy”; nobélisable!
Franchement, quels ingrats ces #Libanais!!… 🤥😒
“Catch me if you can”…
Et, en conclusion, la perle de l’entretien (merci encore, @Entreprendre & @Icibeyrouthnews !):

L’éthique de responsabilité du Service Public selon sa Mansuétude le Gouverneur de la #Banque_Centrale du #Liban: “Après moi le déluge!”…

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More from @jobahout

Joseph Bahout باحوط Profile picture
Oct 26
1• #Israel’s strike on #Iran (announced & awaited by all) came below what was expected by many.
Both in magnitude (limited to Teheran & vicinity) & in targets (see possible menus in maps below -#nuclear, #energy-; choice was ultimately limited to “classical” military assets). Image
Image
2• Was it an #Israeli self-limitation (for reasons yet to understand: either reluctance to go up escalation ladder, or preliminary message of something more to come?), or a #US sustained effort to keep things under a cap?

Next weeks/months will tell.
3• #Iran seems to already downplay the strike.
Will it swallow it & absorb, or counter strike to maintain asymmetric deterrence?

Retaliation could more probably come from one of its proxy theaters (#Lebanon? #Yemen?); at least to give meaning to “strategic depth” concept.
Read 9 tweets
Joseph Bahout باحوط Profile picture
Jul 31
After the Beirut strike against a #Hezbollah high-ranking commander & the Teheran strike that killed #Hamas’ leading figure #Haniyeh, what to expect re-the regional conflict dynamics, & how to read #Israel #Netanyahu’s risky calculations?

Some of my takes in this thread 🧵👇🏻
1-It is now obvious that #Netanyahu is resolute to torpedo all chances for a ceasefire/hostage deal in Gaza.
It is also obvious that he is still trying, as he persistently did since Oct.7,to engulf the region in a global confrontation,& to drag the #US into a regional war w Iran.
2-It is also almost confirmed that #Netanyahu heard discouraging messages from both sides of the aisle in the #US re-both these goals; he now knows that his personal political horizon is narrowing, as is the window of his war adventure.
Read 11 tweets
Joseph Bahout باحوط Profile picture
Mar 25, 2023
⁦@IMFNews⁩’ ArtIV mission to #Lebanon concluded w this stark statement (in a presser no Lebanese official attended).

A last wake-up call before ultimate act of homicide this country’s mafiacracy is committing vs its people in order to save its a*s.. imf.org/en/News/Articl…
«#Lebanon is at a dangerous crossroads, & w/out rapid reforms will be mired in a never-ending crisis. A continuation of the status quo & additional delays in implementing reforms will keep the economy depressed, with irreversible consequences for the whole country.»
«W/out acknowledging & credibly addressing the large financial gap in the banking sector,banks will not be able to provide meaningful credit to support the economy,small depositors will continue to incur large losses,while medium/large deposits will remain indefinitely locked.»
Read 6 tweets
Joseph Bahout باحوط Profile picture
Mar 24, 2023
Notable flare-up of strikes & counter-strikes at #Syria/#Iraq border; between #US & #Iran proxies.

(? Timing ?
in the wake of #Saudi-Iranian rapprochement; & few days after serious steps of Saudi-#Assad normalization). theguardian.com/world/2023/mar…
#US airstrikes on facilities used by #Iran’s proxies came in retaliation to a drone strike in north-east #Syria that killed a US contractor & injured five American troops.
Strikes killed six fighters at an arms depot in the Harabesh neighbourhood in the city of #Deir_Ezzor.
Interesting:

“Diplomacy to de-escalate the crisis appeared immediately around the strikes. #Qatar reported a call between its foreign minister & Jake Sullivan, the #US national security adviser. Qatar’s foreign minister then spoke with the #Iranian FM Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.”
Read 4 tweets
Joseph Bahout باحوط Profile picture
Mar 23, 2023
Normalizing #Assad; cntn’d…

“#Syria & #Saudi_Arabia have agreed to reopen their embassies after cutting diplomatic ties more than a decade ago; a step that would mark a leap forward in Damascus's return to the Arab fold.” reuters.com/world/middle-e…
“The decision was the result of talks in #Saudi_Arabia with a senior #Syrian intelligence official.
A Gulf diplomat said a high-ranking Syrian intelligence official "stayed for days" in Riyadh & agreement was struck to reopen embassies "very soon".”
“One regional source identified the official as #Hussam_Louqa, who heads #Syria's #intelligence committee; talks included security on Syria's border w #Jordan & the smuggling of captagon to the Arab #Gulf, from Syria.”
Read 4 tweets
Joseph Bahout باحوط Profile picture
Nov 7, 2021
The failed assassination attempt vs #IraqiPM #Kadhimi calls for several observations:
• 1st contextual element: Recent Iraqi elections were clear setback for #Iran (w/out really strengthening the PM’s own constituency; while strengthening #Muqtada_Sadr, a volatile actor).
(1)
(2)
 • This has triggered 2 opposite effects:
- need for #Iran & #PMF to reassert control & preeminence on #Iraqi scene (by use of violence among other means).
- (vs) temptation by rivals (mainly #Gulf) to (over?)read setback as a net advantage in their favor.
(3)
 • 2nd contextual element:
- Stalling of #Saudi/#Iran talks (#Yemen setback?), w clear #Gulf stiffening (#Lebanon?) as bargaining posture.
- soon new round of Iran/#US talks, w Vienna process becoming in final decisive phase.
Read 7 tweets

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