Sunil Jhaveri Profile picture
Jan 6 10 tweets 4 min read
Announcing MISTERBOND'S ROLL OF HONOUR for Mutual Fund schemes under all categories of #Debt, #Hybrid and #Equity.

This will showcase Top 5 schemes in each category.

This should become the #GOLD standard in ranking Mutual Fund schemes on #QuantitativeAnalysis
This will be based on monthly analysis of daily rolling returns in each category and then
12 month average of such monthly analysis
We compile daily rolling returns over different periods based on Asset classes like:
1. Daily 60 mth rolling returns over past 7 yrs for Equity
2. Daily 36 mth rolling returns over past 5 yrs for CreditRisk
3. Daily 12 mth rolling returns over past 3 yrs for Low Duration Funds
This is the correct way of Ranking schemes - which gives importance to consistency of performance rather than giving importance to recent past performances.

Other rankings keep changing based on recent past performance as they ranking based on P2P returns
MisterBond's Roll of Honour will give following 3 ranking analysis:

1. Industry average of say Large Cap schemes during data under consideration and % of observation of an AMC beating Industry average (#BI)
2. Investor High Returns score (#IHR) - higher returns of a scheme in higher returns band gets more points and gets Ranked no 1, 2, etc.

This does not take into account #Volatility (#StdDeviation)
3. Investor Experience Returns Score (#IER):

IHR Score (higher returns at what cost or voaltility). i.e.IHR Score divided by Std Deviation

Higher IHR Score and lower Std Deviation gets Ranked no 1, 2, etc.
Finally, Consolidated average (#CA) of IHR + IER + BI score will determine the leaders in each category
Hope this helps in selecting schemes based on their consistency of performance.

Do give your feedbacks on this unique way of ranking schemes and make this the Gold Standard while doing Quantitative analysis of scheme rankings
Will share ROLL OF HONOUR soon for scheme performances under each of the following based on past 12 month average from Jan 22 to Dec 22:

1. Large caps
2. Large & Mid caps
3. Flexi caps
4. Mid caps
5. Small Caps
6. DAAF

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More from @IamMisterBond

Jan 7
MISTERBOND'S #ROLLofHONOUR IN DIFFERENT #MUTUALFUND SCHEME CATEGORIES BASED ON PAST 12 MONTHLY RANKING DATA FROM JAN 22 TO DEC 22 AND AVERAGE OF THE SAME - In JAN 2023:

Entirely #Quantitative analysis:
Read 8 tweets
Aug 8, 2022
#BullWhip effect as per @michaeljburry:

All know that rising #inflation is negative for #Equity markets as #CentralBanks (CB) tend to raise rates to control #demand - which in turn can lead to #Recession. During this phase #demand outpaces #supply.

@PensionCraft
Demand contracts for some time and supply also contracts with a lag. Post that demand starts to rise (post COVID), prompting manufacturers to increase supply disproportionately - creating a supply glut. This puts downward pressure on prices,inflation comes down. CBs turn dovish
This creates disinflationary phenomena. Though looks good on paper for equity markets, prices of all products come down substantially.

This is called #BullWhip effect.

Supply outpaces demand. Prices collapse, inventories pile up, margins shrink.

This slows earnings growth
Read 5 tweets
Jun 8, 2022
What factors to look for to understand which direction are #interestrates headed:

1. Total Credit in the system
2. Which gets divided into External and Internal
3. External focuses on #CAD
4. Internal: Private & Govt
5. Private - #CreditOfftake
6. Govt - #FiscalDeficit
3. External :
#CAD (Current Account Deficit - difference between country's #Imports & #Exports) goes up, #imports become expensive, rupee depreciates, bringing in imported #inflation

- interest rate tend to go up
4. Internal Credit
5. #PrivateSector - #Creditofftake goes up interest rates rise
6. Govt - #FiscalDeficit goes up interest rates rise
Read 4 tweets
May 21, 2022
Why one needs to protect downside - a thread:

Basics:

If NIFTY goes down from 18,000 to 9,000 it is 50% drop.

Now it needs to go up 100% from thereon to break even and come back to 18,000 and then get into positive territory
Current situation:

Markets have dropped by almost 12% from the peak reached on 18th Oct 2021.

#nifty50 will have to go up by 13.63% and scale back to 18500 from hereon to break even and then get into positive territory.

That is almost 2200 points rise from hereon
Those who invested at market peaks will have to wait much longer to a) break even and b) then go into positive territory

Investing at right Valuations and not at any valuation should matter to the Investors.

For that you need to avoid #FOMO, have #patience & #discipline
Read 4 tweets
May 13, 2022
TIME TO ENTER & NOT EXIT FROM EQUITY at this juncture

After yesterday's correction, NIFTY PE & PB have gone down for our Algo to show one can invest 60% in Equity. In such a scenario, we would recommend out of ₹100, ₹60 can now be invested in Equity and balance 40% in Liquid.
We then do value STP of 3X over next few months till markets remain in Yellow Zone. If markets collapse to Green Zone, balance amount in liquid can be deployed in Equity immediately.

What is 3X?

60 lacs/60 mths = 1 lac is 1X
3X in this case is 3 lacs
But please remember, that after 60% investment in Equity if markets correct, for some time that portion will show negative returns for a short while. That should not perturb us as these investments would have been done at reasonable valuation Zone.
Read 7 tweets
May 12, 2022
#AMCs are manufacturers and will offer a basket to select from. Would anyone have invested if they came with NFO in March 2020?

It is duty of #Advisors/#Investors to invest or ignore. Just because AMCs offer is no criteria to invest.

Need to introspect before blaming others
Same is the case with IPOs, their timings and their valuations. Companies also come with #IPOs when markets were on a roll.

Again, investors had a choice to invest or ignore.

They invested with GREED and FOMO and now blaming others for these IPOs bombing
Why can't #Investors respect market signals? When going was good, they ignored advice of following #AssetAllocation.

When markets are bleeding, looking at scapegoats for their own actions.

This is #SelfAttribution bias. All good - their skill, all bad - blame it on others
Read 4 tweets

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