Thread by @bctallis

With the great news that #Poland will supply a company of #Leopard2 Main Battle Tanks & the #UK set to provide #Challenger2 #MBTs, the spotlight is now trained firmly on Berlin. Will #Germany join the coalition to give #Ukraine the tanks -#Kampfpanzer!- it needs?🧵1/

Happily, that looks increasingly likely.
SPD Chancellor #Scholz' coalition partners the Greens & FDP are insisting that #Germany take part & rumours of a no-confidence vote ultimatum are swirling.
@ABaerbock's visit to Kharkiv with @DmytroKuleba & @Makeiev was no coincidence 2/

But, as we know, #Scholz & co have a history of giving reasons not to deliver only for those to evaporate into excuses. @kuleba noted this on Germany's main TV news show - 'first they say no, vigorously defend their decision, only to finally say yes'
3/
politico.eu/article/britis…

For almost a year any change in🇩🇪's position has come under massive international pressure.
This approach, which I called 'moving at the speed of shame' has needlessly damaged #Germany's reputation - & meant that many Ukrainians have needlessly died.
4/
ip-quarterly.com/en/what-zeiten…

It looks like #Scholz is going to have to-again-eat his government's weasel words.
We've heard so often that its impossible when it isnt
Let's briefly review those excuses to remind ourselves what🇩🇪*has* done & why we now have to keep the pressure on until #Germany delivers. 5/

It's a great reminder of how far #Germany has come (starting from a low baseline & needlessly grudgingly & slowly) but despite the excuses it *has* eventually delivered & needs to do so again - now to its full potential & responsibility 6/

Of course just last week #Germany made the big step of committing to deliver 40 #Marder #IFVs (after France & US had moved first
- & after Scholz had said to the Foreign Affairs Committee in July that this would be a 'terrible escalation'
merkur.de/politik/ukrain…
7/

And after Defence Minister Lambrecht has repeatedly said there are none to spare - something that which was immediately debunked by an internal Bundeswehr paper in May - but which she then repeated just a few weeks ago. n-tv.de/politik/Intern…
8/

#Scholz has also said there were no heavy weapons to spare - & his spokesperson Hebestreit said on 20 April 2022 that "the Bundeswehr has supplied everything it could spare"
- ignoring the equipment that later could be spared & also industry stocks spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unt…
9/

-amazingly, the #Gepards that have proved so useful were found just a week later
10/ dw.com/en/germany-wil…

- and a few of the excellent PzH-2000 Panzer Haubitze Self-Propelled artillery pieces were found just days after that
11/
dw.com/en/germany-to-…

These heavy weapons came after the #Bucha massacre & #France decided to send Caesar howitzers.
- But, ignoring that CZ & PL were already doing so, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck had said that tanks could make the West into a target & were off the table
politico.eu/article/berlin…
/12

Scholz also emphasised the need to avoid #Germany & NATO becoming a party to the conflict - and linked this to limiting weapons deliveries in an interview with Der Spiegel
bundesregierung.de/breg-de/suche/…
13/

Drawing criticism at home (from eg @ToniHofreiter) & abroad (from e.g. @AndrzejDuda) new excuses were soon paraded - State Secretary of Defence Siemtje Möller claimed that there was a secret NATO pact not to send 'western type' tanks & IFVs.
politico.eu/article/german…

14/

There have been many controversies around this with several German politicians claiming that it was more appropriate to send Soviet-made/designed equipment -& that it would take too long for Ukrainians to learn how to use German kit (!) spiegel.de/international/…
15/

Given all that, its quite amazing that #Germany HAS delivered as much equipment & munitions to #Ukraine as it has! On top of the Gepards, PzH-2000 & a lot of ammunition & other good kit🇩🇪delivered the superb IRIS-T air defence systems - oh & the famous 5000 helmets of course.
16/

Those 5000 helmets (described by Lambrecht as "quite a clear signal" came before the #Zeitenwende speech when #Germany's government was still clinging to the fiction that it didn't send weapons to warring parties
nytimes.com/2022/01/27/wor…
17/

Actually, taking just one example (of several), #Germany had permitted the sale of 4.3bn EUR worth of weapons to Egypt in 2021 which was involved in the conflicts in Yemen & Libya [🇪🇬 later acquiesced to 🇩🇪 request that an IRIS-T be sent to🇺🇦instead)
bmwk.de/Redaktion/DE/P…
18/

Thankfully, that excuse evaporated after Scholz 27/02 speech. As, a few days before, had the fiction that #Nordstream2 was a purely commercial, apolitical project.
After years of ignoring CEE & defiance of US pressure🇩🇪 only stopped NS2 on 22/02.
sueddeutsche.de/politik/eu-sch…

19/

Despite the progress there are still hurdles
Even yesterday, senior SPD figures were arguing that Tanks would not be sent as they could "change the dynamic on the battle field" - which, as Franziska Davies ably noted, is precisely the point.

https://twitter.com/EFDavies/status/1612939296893448192?s=20&t=ypZJqYqwKavPc6-7oPPDdQ

20/

Other SPD figures - (eg Mutzenich, Muller) have expressed opposition in recent days but, since the new year, pressure from coalition partners The Greens & FDP - & some voices in the SPD - has mounted. Crucially though, international pressure & action is again key
21/

#Germany's contribution to #Ukraine must be recognised - but its still not enough & has been made in such a way that has cost Ukrainian lives & continues to hurt rather than help 🇩🇪's reputation. This is a needless shame - & its time to really step up.
n-tv.de/politik/Wir-ha…
22/

The changes #Germany HAS made over the last year are testament to the efforts of politicians across the main parties & the German public that recognised that helping #Ukraine by arming it to the hilt was right - AND in line with 🇩🇪 values & interests. But the chancellery
23/

has needlessly & incredibly slowed things - e.g Wolfgang Schmidt's now infamous excuse that #Germany should not supply tanks b/c they would be a gift for Putin if captured as they would have iron crosses on them-condemned by @RKiesewetter & many others
rnd.de/politik/v2-syn…
/24

Now though, with the announcements from #UK & #Poland, #Scholz has run out of road - #Germany cannot credibly stand in the way of the🇵🇱move & needs to join🇬🇧& others in the coalition of tank (#MBT) providers. If not it might be the end of his government.

/25

Other countries have changed their position over the course of the last year - & recognising that you need to change to get right what you previously had wrong is laudable.
With Germany, however, the continued perception of reluctance & foot-dragging has been so costly.
/26

That it needs to be comprehensively dispelled once and for all. To do so Scholz needs to again changing position & enthusiastically contribute a full complement of the latest Leopard2s (A6 & A7).
No more excuses. /END