Thread by @HeliosRunner

1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on January 16, 2022
Dumb war of #RussianArmy is still on its way..
Several areas are under maximum pressure but Ru are having some minor success only in #Bakhmut area.
#AFU still at it around #Kreminna
#UkraineMap

2/ Quick recap here, & maybe come back later on, if needed.
first, about #Kupiansk #Svatove area
the general FEBA line have remain almost the same for the last couple months even if extremely violent combats happened in several areas & Ru trying to push back #UAarmy everywhere

3/ Rushits shelled again more than 10 settlements today indicating direction of actions, including #Vilshana ! (again in 3 days), #Kotlyarivka, #Krokhmalne & #Berestove-Kharkiv region & of course #novoselivske #Stelmakhivka, #Makiivka #Nevske in Luhansk region.
sadly AFU did not

4/ managed in couple of months to push back Ru to a better "arc" of defense that would go from #Totarivka #Arapivka up to #Nyzhniaduvankha
So active defense and lots of ressources will still be able to stay there in order to counter next wave of Ru mobiks.
#kupiansk still at risk

5/ As for the #Svatove to #Kreminna area. Ru still sending all the "fresh" troops they can in order to "keep" #Ukr at bay, & keep full control south of #Svatove but UkR still have gained some good grounds in some places
Also more fights in #Chervonopopivka & south #Kreminna

6/ but frankly it's really hard to assess and even if some videos or claims talk about it, we have no solid proof that #Ukr is really in strong positions there and able to control the north axis (even if at arty direct distance & we know SOF are engaging Ru there sometimes).

7/ About the #Kreminna subject, since several days (and as expected since before Christmas, we knew #UArmy had planned to reach the city by mid January & they "deliver" (if i may say it like that).
Gen staff reports troops being in da place now... but we r still waiting for more

8/ indications. it's not so easy to assess there. no direct images inside the city that can be geolocate as far as i know
but for sure they are not in the middle of the city as some wild claims out there as "downtown" would mean reaching the river = impossible for several reasons

9/ first of all because you would have my "buddy" @serhey_hayday making a great tweet about it !-))
but also because it would mean secure places & then tons of vids & pics would appears.
Also AFU is very clever & taking care of not being taken in a pincer there & keep pushing

10/ so what they will try to achieve despite all the reinforcements being send, is to push, by the south & force #Russian out, away of the #Krasna & Donets rivers. Then u wont have to worry abt the forest up north or part of the city as Ru will flee away to avoid encirclement.

11/ next : The situation in #Bilohorivka is still slightly moving but UKR remain master. Same in #Spirne or #Verkhnokyamanske
Holding here for months even if "destroy".
Ru is trying to push there some times to times, but can't achieve jack s...
#UAarmy stand strong.
#UkraineMap

12/ "funny enough" people are talking a lot about #Bakhmut but Ru have shelled into oblivion and send actually a lots of good troops for the last 5 months in this area in order to reach at least #Siversk , but it is one of the most spectacular failure of Ru army in this war !

13/ now : The situation North East of #Bakhmut is extremely difficult for sure & Ukr forces r doing "miracles" everywhere bc it is still clearly one of the main objective of #WagnerPMC .
They r still not IN the city itself
But significant gain were made in several other villages

14/ like #Soledar which almost totally under Ru control now. but not entirely. also & more importnt #Pidhorodne #Підгородне (seems to have fall & it's not good news)
because from the hill above the diff villages & #Bakhmut they can shell Ukr almost everywhere down into the valley

15/ so this is why i'm not a big fan recently of still calling ths area the Ru meatgrinder & all (like we rightfully called it this summer), as it kills more simple convicts than "real" soldiers & have a deep impact about the security of the "flanks" of #Bakhmut & "consumes" tons

16/ of real good #AFU fighters & even if lots are not "dead" they are "out of the game", & months of hard training & knowledge are now also "out".. so this no more a total "win win" situation there. & it also show the lack of materials Ukr r experiencing there.
We should do more

17/ i'll do a separate thread this coming days about #Krasnopolivka #Blahodatne or #KrasnaHora (Gora)
because there is much to say about all this area... as the #WagnerPMC might want to capitalize on recent "victory" and try to directly go forward in order to pass the river...

18/ moving to #Bakhmut south also the same goes there too but Ru are really trying hard & took almost all the high grounds but since then, #UAarmy forces have managed to contained & break the waves of assailants.
no break through in #Ivanhrad or #Klishchiivka is recorded..

19/ the worst place of all that #AFU should absolutely avoid to lose would be the area circle in purple in my map :
bc it would imply then that #Russian would be able to direct mortar shell or "Kornet" Ukr defenses wherever they are in #Bakhmut East, implying a quite certain

20/ loss of that part of the city
it still would not mean a "huge" catastrophe as Ru then would still have to go on for months and months to conquer the other side of the valley, but it will crush a stronghold & generate another wave of Ru "motivation" dyn.. & it's to be avoid

21/ I'm not going to publish all detailed other maps of the front lines, because in the other areas, nothing really has changed (u can refer to my previous maps if needed)
#Mariinka is alive & Ru are not even able to capitalize (as explained 1000 times) on #Pisky -nou "victory"

22/ i'm just going to end up w all my recap of the weeks and tab for people who appreciate the sheer beauty of numbers & their truly meaningful significations :
- first the recap of the week and Ukr & Ru alleged losses of the day/week plus the "zone" approx end of "misery" ;-)

23/ recap of the last weeks for comparaisons...

24/ if you still don't know, the recap of the weeks for alleged Ru losses is not taken as pure "face value" i've explained several time, and that's the reason why i subtract 15% to my "zone" calculus.
you can still look up with # to find more explanations..
or wait end of month

25/ now the tab of the day and the "refurbish" tool to assess all the diff scenarii of different losses in each army:
if you don't get it. same.. sorry u'll have to wait end of the month.
and by the way, this morning was pretty "awesome" an entire BTG-like has been annihilated

26/ recap of #UAarmy Gen Staff report of the day :
and Nota Bene... (private jokes with friends) that the Brrrrrrouuuuuuummmmpfffffff is still alive and always hiding in the woods ready to kill all Rushits wandering on Ukrainian lands 😅😉

27/ last but not least one of my fav recap of the week
(we could also apply a safe 10%-20% on top of that, as we always have some delay to actual and real reports)

28/ before ending the thread, never forget that there are a lot of good men out there, tonight trying to survive this terrible war...
and i do salute all of them.
Інколи розкіш буває і такою...
Військові вдячні всім українцям за підтримку.
#ФортецяБахмут #ДПСУ

29/📌Ось так палають 5 мільйонів доларів або Т-90М Прорив-3 зс рфі з тепловим камуфляжем «Накидка» десь на Луганщині)

Гарно горить)
Стара радянська бляшанка, в яку трішки напхали електроніки і сміливо та пихато називають "кращим бойовим танком" насправді просто купа металу

30/ and that's it for today! i'll try to resume tomorrow for the second part and more in depth analysis about several points that have been widely talking about recently...
take care you all! Night!
#Ukraine #Україна