So apparently we are now doing the "Actually, Germany is pretty good and this is all the evil Poles' and Britts' doing". I will disagree.
To begin with, yes, there is a some of truth to the fact that #Germany has done more when it comes to supporting #Ukraine then they get credit for. In particular on the air defence side of things, the Gepards and IRIS-T have made a real impact, to take the obvious example.
It's also correct that no *formal* request for transfer of #Leopard2 has been made, and that while many countries agree that "someone" should give Ukraine Leopards, significantly fewer are happy to provide theirs.
The big issue here is obviously that most countries have as many tanks as they feel they need, meaning those with many feel they need many, and those who could give away tanks have few to give. I discussed this recently from a Finnish POV. corporalfrisk.com/2023/01/15/fre…
It's also true that Polish political leadership at times is, let's say, trigger-happy when it comes to making grand statements, and sometimes reality has a tendency to come back for a second round.
It's also entirely possible that parts of the British media landscape is all too happy to bash Germany for anything bad in the world.
However, all this is just part of the picture. And when you look at the whole picture, it isn't particularly rosy for Germany.
Germany has consistently been dragging their feet every step of the way. When countries like #UK, #Estonia, and #Poland were already shipping missiles to #Ukraine, Germany was still thinking. When Poland was already shipping tanks to Ukraine, Germany was busy feet dragging.
The "no formal request"-argument is moot at best and dishonest at worst. It's pretty much standard practice to not ask countries for permission if you know that the answer will be "No" (same btw often goes for formal applications for industry export licenses).
And let's not kid ourselves, #Scholz has made it clear Germany won't greenlight a transfer of the Leopard without US supplying the #Abrams. Abrams is certainly a great tank, but it's more thirsty and more maintenance-heavy. sueddeutsche.de/politik/ukrain…
Would it still be a useable tank? Certainly, but calling out the US for not doing enough is not something that's grounded in the numbers. Under the current conditions, the #Leopard *is* the one making more sense, and would provide Europe with an opportunity to step up.
It's also extremely hard to make a serious argument for "keine alleingänge" when quite the number of countries have been supporting sending Leopards, and the UK is shipping the best tank they've got (in limited numbers, as #Challenger2 does not make sense in the long run).
As I said before, I do believe that Scholz thinks he is making the right choices. That still doesn't make it so, and for everything Germany is in fact doing, it is still the main villain in the story about when and how to #FreeTheLeopards.
@patrikoksanen@Cornubot@AWollstad Discussions have been made with Stoltenberg, Swedish FM Billström, and Turkish FM. No issues with Hungary, they assure us they won't be last to ratify us.
Discussions under tri-lateral format has gone well, but now Turkey is rather upset following demonstrations in Stockholm. Haavisto believe this will cause a delay of at least "weeks".
Discussing national security these days have a tendency to spark little joy, but it was a first-class event put on by @JanneJukkola and his team and I was truly happy to be part of this #turpo-seminaari on home turf - regardless of how it looks 😅! 📸 courtesy of the hosts
For those who missed yesterday's #turpo-seminaari, here's my talk (in Finnish) on how the countries in our neighbourhood react to the War in #Ukraine, and what changes #NATO membership will bring for #Finland. Thanks to @JanneJukkola for posting the clip!
Interestingly, while the decision talks about "rockets" and not "missiles", the MoD has earlier talked about #GMLRS/#ERGMLRS as rockets, so wouldn't be sure they are unguided based on that.
My guess is these are 122 mm #ACCULAR, which #Elbit note "the 122mm has a range of
35km with a 20kg warhead and is adaptable to existing platforms. Accular
122mm seamlessly integrates with a wide variety of traditional launchers."
The massed attacks on #Ukraine today again raises the question about different approaches to managing the long-range ballistic and cruise missile threat. 🧵
I am not claiming to have written the book on the topic, but I did write a chapter with that headline for the Swedish Defence Research Agency (@FOIresearch) a few years ago, so I have given it some thought. The tl;dr version is that it's hard. foi.se/en/foi/news-an…
Ballistic missiles (such as #Iskander) are very difficult targets, and only the most high-end systems are able to intercept them and then within a rather limited range. Cruise missiles (#Kalibr) are easier targets, and many systems are able to at least in theory target them.
Keep your eyes on this one: Finland acquires long-range 155 mm munitions for our #K9Moukari SPGs, which will add "significantly" to the range of the system. #artillery#turpo=#säkpol
Obviously, L/52 guns, base bleed-projectiles, and so forth has meant ranges in general have been growing in recent years for artillery. However, Finland has already picked the low-hanging fruit, including getting the @Nammo 155 mm IM HE-ER (40 km range). nammo.com/product/our-pr…
Apparently this new round has "significantly" more range than 40 km. In 2017 Nammo Lapua said their most important project on the artillery side is a new long-range munition for the K9, and that the other Nordic countries are also planning to place orders. eduskunta.fi/FI/vaski/Julka…
*However*, I hope it has been made absolutely clear to the Swedish government that it can't at this time look like they are even contemplating concessions to #Kakabaveh, and in case they do, we might have to backtrack on the promise. 2/3 svt.se/nyheter/inrike…
We might not like it, but that's where we are currently with regards to national security. Optics matter, and while we obviously will not give in to the more outrageous Turkish demands - in particular extradition claims which have already been tried - this isn't one of those. 3/3