Jeff Seldin Profile picture
Feb 10 11 tweets 9 min read
Latest US assessment of #Russia|n losses in #Ukraine️

"Russia's conventional, especially ground capabilities, ground force capabilities, in #Europe have been significantly degraded" per @DeptofDefense Asst Sec. for Int'l Security Affairs Celeste Wallander tells #CNAS2023
#Russiaa's suffered "tens of thousands of casualties" in #Ukraine, per @DeptofDefense's Wallander

"It has probably lost half of its main battle tank stock in combat" to destruction or capture by Ukraine
"Something like 80 percent of #Russia's ground force capability is right now devoted to the fight in #Ukraine" per @DeptofDefense's Wallander
#Russia's defense industrial base - "We have seen during the crisis it continues to produce at a lower level bcs of sanctions & bcs of some of these technology constraints" per @DeptofDefense's Wallander
"But #Russia is also drawing upon partnerships that it has to fill in some of the gaps, most notably #Iran & acquiring UAVs" per @DeptofDefense's Wallander

"Russia continues to field a pretty substantial air force. Its naval capabilities are remain pretty intact"
Despite being "intact" #Russia's naval capabilities are "a little bit constrained right now or rather more than a little bit in the #BlackSea because of #Ukrainian adaptability" per @DeptofDefense's Wallander to #CNAS2023
#Russia's military overall - "is a mixed picture" per @DeptofDefense's Wallander

"As Russia continues to suffer losses in #Ukraine it is also learning how to adapt. It is learning both tactically, operationally and somewhat strategically how to adapt"
US seeing #Russia apply lessons learned from previous losses/failures in #Ukraine

"We're seeing some of those play out in how Russia's conducting for example the operations right now in Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine" per @DeptofDefense's Wallander
"#Russia also has a deep bench of personnel that it can draw upon & we've seen it rely more on the human factor in war. So, it's a it's a evolving picture" per @DeptofDefense's Wallander

Adds US "can't take it for granted" it will stay ahead of the curve
"#Russia is an acute threat but it's a chronic condition" per @DeptofDefense's Wallander

"Even as Russia is facing a strategic failure in #Ukraine, it will remain a militarily capable adversary that we have to right size our plans,our operations & our capabilities to cope with"
"We are confident that #Russia will not achieve its strategic or even its operational objectives, & we are confident that the Ukrainian armed forces is up to the task of defending its country" per @DeptofDefense's Wallander

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More from @jseldin

Feb 10
NEW: High altitude object shot down at 1:45pm EST Friday over northern #Alaska - @USNorthernCmd recovery operations getting under way now, per @PentagonPresSec BrigGen Patrick Ryder, with update details from @DeptofDefense

It was "about the size of a small car"
On the #China spy ballon shot down this past Saturday off the coast of #SouthCarolina - teams have "located a significant amount of debris" that will allow US to get a better sense of the balloon's capabilities, per @PentagonPresSec
High altitude object was shot down by a F-22 out of Joint Base Elmendorf in #Alaska using an AIM-9X sidewinder missile, per @PentagonPresSec
Read 9 tweets
Feb 10
BREAKING: US @DeptofDefense fighter aircraft shoots down object traveling at 40k feet over #Alaska - might have posed a threat to aircraft, per US National Security Council spox John Kirby, in response to q from @pwidakuswara
Pentagon was tracking the high-altitude object over the past 24 hours & concluded it "posed a reasonable threat to the safety of civilian flight" per Kirby

@POTUS ordered the object shot down "out of an abundance of caution" he said, over frozen US territorial waters
The shootdown of the high altitude object took place in the past hour, per Kirby
Read 13 tweets
Feb 10
NEW: US military launching relief mission to #Turkey

US has "positioned military capabilities, personnel & equipment to aid the government of #Türkiye [#Turkey] in its continued search & rescue efforts following the 7.8 earthquake" per @US_EUCOM
Per @US_EUCOM, a team from HQ arrived ay #Incirlik AB on Feb 9 "to determine how the US military can rapidly respond with critically needed capabilities & equipment to support assistance requested by the Turkish government through @USAID"
The George Herbert Walker Bush Carrier Strike Group also now in the eastern #Mediterranean on Feb. 7 "and stands ready to provide logistics, medical, and rotary airlift support" per @US_EUCOM
Read 5 tweets
Feb 9
NEW: #China's spy balloon "put on full display what we've long recognized - the PRC has become more repressive at home & more aggressive abroad" @DeputySecState Wendy Sherman tells lamwmakers

"It reinforced the need for us to double down on our strategy-invest, align, compete "
.@StateDept "modernizing our work...to mobilize our embassies and resources to take on this challenge" from #China, per @DeputySecState

Sherman says US working w/like-minded countries across the #IndoPacific & beyond, sharing intel showing threat posed by PRC
#Taiwan-"We remain committed to out long-standing One #China policy & oppose any unilateral changes to the cross strait status quo" per @DeputySecState
Read 14 tweets
Feb 9
NEW: #China surveillance balloons have flown over +40 countries & 5 continents - gathering " conducting signals intelligence collection operations" per @StateDept official

The equipment was "inconsistent with the equipment onboard weather balloons"
US gathered intel on #China's spy balloons specs w/ high resolution imagery from U-2 flybys, per @StateDept official

Chinese balloon had "multiple antennas to include an array likely capable of collecting and geo-locating communications"
#China's surveillance balloon "was equipped with solar panels large enough to produce the requisite power to operate multiple active intelligence collection sensors" per @StateDept official
Read 5 tweets
Feb 8
JUST NOW: @NATO SecGen @jensstoltenberg visiting @SecDef Lloyd Austin at @DeptofDefense

Meeting comes as"
- allies help #Turkey following the devastating & deadly earthquake
- the upcoming 1-year anniversary of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine
- new concerns about #China ImageImage
Both @SecDef & @NATO's @jensstoltenberg extended their condolences to #Turkey for the earthquake

"We've all seen the images of devastation" per Austin "Hearts go out to our NATO allies n #Turkiye during this unimaginably difficult time & to all who are suffering"
"Let me commend the #UnitedStates & also other allies for stepping up very quickly to provide support to help #Turkiye with the rescue work & to mitigate the consequences of the earthquake" per @jensstoltenberg

"This demonstrates how @NATO allies stand together"
Read 9 tweets

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