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@BULLReturns

Mar 17

https://twitter.com/benbakhshi/status/1636390996366987268

PEs < 3x there are hundreds out there in Frontier markets, many growing eps at 20% per year plus. Let alone Fossil fuel stocks.

https://twitter.com/benbakhshi/status/1636390996366987268

Remember a < 3x on peak #commodity spots is > 15x on spot lows

Note many think #Coal #Natgas & #oil stocks looked cheap on 2022 low PEs, in fact 65% were expensive.

#coal avg prices will drop by 50-65% over the next 2 years Vs 2022 average.

#natgas avg prices will drop by 50-60% over 2023 Vs 2023 avg.

#oil likely 30%

The market values

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@BULLReturns

Mar 16

#Uranium cycle realties:

- multiple 50% sector drawdowns

- explorers can drawdown 80% intra cycle

- it's unlikely to swim against the pack of other #commodities

- the constant reloading of spot supply with lack of utility buyers creates uncertain in price discovery

1/2

- another 20% downside can't be ruled out for this down-leg, 35% plus for high beta burning matches (2-6 months of further pain)

- the next upleg (if backed by $65-75 spot) will provide 2-3x returns for the sector & 6-9x for high beta burning matches (4-18months out)

#uranium

So in the context of S&P500 3000 target 🎯 what will that mean for your favourite #uranium plays bottoming:

$AGE 2.1c
$BMN 90c
$GLO $2
$LOT 12c
$UUUU $4
$BOE $1.40
$PDN 41c

Read 4 tweets

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@BULLReturns

Mar 16

To call the bottom of #commodities #uranium in 2023, one must call the market bottom 1st, if you have no idea on that, then you will accummulate too early, as many are doing.

Note: under aggressive #contagion conditions 95% of #commodities are heavily correlated together.

The 5% will likely be extremely short on inventory levels, with lack of short term supply response.

#uranium spot market receives reloading of up to 1.5mlbs per month...

...therefore a truly real supply shortage is when Utilities are forced to buy over 1.5mlbs per month, with other buyers taking the total to over 2.5mlbs per month, then the spot price will actually trend higher. Until this happens (or a sustained risk on period later in 2024)...

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@BULLReturns

Mar 14

Thought of the day: Investor Survivability & Opportunity Kit for 2023:
- ensure you have 30%+ cash weighting for deployment into fresh asymmetric themes
- ensure you have exited ponzi tech and other rubbish which will implode within the next 12 months
- ensure 9 months cost cover

Last night at lows at a few #regionalbanks approached 0.2x book coupled with survivability features = new asymmetric theme

We expect the fear environment to worsen as the recession hits over the next 9 months, hence one must have coverage of all possible outcomes.

- personal cashflow coverage (9 months of reserves)

- 30% cash stack for opportunistic fresh asymmetric themes deployment

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@BULLReturns

Mar 12

Thought of the day: Banks Runs aren't fun, 3rd party risk acceleration in stepping up, the breaking of the system is now at a pivotal point, 👉 markets will react accordingly. Bargain basement equity valuations will abound as risk tops out, fresh asymmetric theme entry for 2H2023

The week ahead for US #financials could see -20-25% corrections if regulators don't act to build confidence with depositors. This could flow into -5-8% S&P500 impact, high beta plays could take a 30% hit. Redux 2008.

The playbook is set....

Looks like depositors have been looked after, hence this will mitigate much of the damage.....recession is still incoming.

Read 4 tweets

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@BULLReturns

Mar 10

https://twitter.com/WilliamGreen72/status/1633901970095259663

Where is the alignment of interest? Avoid the asset collectors, focus in on the performance collectors.

https://twitter.com/WilliamGreen72/status/1633901970095259663

Watch out for the specialists who want their 5 minutes of fame to extend for 40 minutes.

Follow the multi cycle generalists who have seen it all, they are not anchored in peak cycles whereas specialists are.

#tech
#uranium
#cyclicals
#coal
#lithium

What specialists never say?

It's time to sell as valuations are above to collapse by 75%

What seasoned generalists, always do?

Scaled out prior to the peak and have moved on to fresh asymmetric themes.

Who should you be following....who has your back ...

#investing101

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