$SBER up 19x if depositary receipts were purchased <50c and converted plus incoming 200% dividend yield. A little outperformance over 12 months Vs peers group in Europe & US. Another successful #asymmetric theme in play.
Who would have thought the globally best investment theme over the last 12 months would be #Russianstocks (purchased in crashed DRs) that 83% of the world pop didn't sanction?
Note the buy valuations (using 3yr trailing pre-war averages):
Dividend yields > 100%
PE < 0.7x
Entry on these sorts of multiples with future growth applied has always provided 10-20x returns over 5 years on cycle bottom deployment for a theme.
$100k placed into #Russian DRs in the 1st week of March 2022 and converted will be worth $0.8-2.0m through 2026.
$SBER fresh recovery high yesterday, moving to 250 as incoming dividend of 25 is approved, 10% dividend yield?
250 equates to 25x return for those who entered below 50c on the Depositary Receipts.
Thought of the day: Recency bias from #commodity peak when everything in the rear vision mirror looks "solid" is an optical illusion, around the bend a cliff is coming into sight a "recession", often stockprices drop 75% plus. Demand can get slaughtered at the margin.
#lithium & #coal are great case studies for those of our followers who don't understand nothing is rare at 80% cash margins and 20% cost.
To call the bottom of #commodities#uranium in 2023, one must call the market bottom 1st, if you have no idea on that, then you will accummulate too early, as many are doing.
Note: under aggressive #contagion conditions 95% of #commodities are heavily correlated together.
The 5% will likely be extremely short on inventory levels, with lack of short term supply response.
#uranium spot market receives reloading of up to 1.5mlbs per month...
...therefore a truly real supply shortage is when Utilities are forced to buy over 1.5mlbs per month, with other buyers taking the total to over 2.5mlbs per month, then the spot price will actually trend higher. Until this happens (or a sustained risk on period later in 2024)...
Thought of the day: Investor Survivability & Opportunity Kit for 2023:
- ensure you have 30%+ cash weighting for deployment into fresh asymmetric themes
- ensure you have exited ponzi tech and other rubbish which will implode within the next 12 months
- ensure 9 months cost cover
Last night at lows at a few #regionalbanks approached 0.2x book coupled with survivability features = new asymmetric theme
We expect the fear environment to worsen as the recession hits over the next 9 months, hence one must have coverage of all possible outcomes.
- personal cashflow coverage (9 months of reserves)
- 30% cash stack for opportunistic fresh asymmetric themes deployment
Thought of the day: Banks Runs aren't fun, 3rd party risk acceleration in stepping up, the breaking of the system is now at a pivotal point, 👉 markets will react accordingly. Bargain basement equity valuations will abound as risk tops out, fresh asymmetric theme entry for 2H2023
The week ahead for US #financials could see -20-25% corrections if regulators don't act to build confidence with depositors. This could flow into -5-8% S&P500 impact, high beta plays could take a 30% hit. Redux 2008.
The playbook is set....
Looks like depositors have been looked after, hence this will mitigate much of the damage.....recession is still incoming.