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Mert N. Matsumoto (松本信秀) Profile picture
@ArveloaMert
May 28, 2023 • 62 tweets • 51 min read • Read on X
Here is the seventh thread 🧵 about the strategy of the #RussoUkrainianWar for the early summer. Russia took the control of #Bakhmut while Ukraine is still planning its offensive efforts. #Ukraine #Russia #Soledar #Kreminna #Svatove #Wagner #UkraineWar #Leopard2 #Vuhledar Image
1) You can find all earlier Twitter threads on war in #Ukraine and #Russia's unlawful invasion and more in this interactive map. Please remember that this map is not for showing the exact lines of contacts but to understand strategies.
2) British MoD underlined that, as planned, #Wagner is now withdrawing from the center of #Bakhmut. The defence of the town will be transferred to so-called DNR forces combined with VDV units. This shows that Wagner will not be in defensive efforts.
3) With this withdrawal #Wagner has an opportunity to focus its mercenary activities in Africa while generating profit ton fund itself, avoid any territorial losses in an #Ukraine's counter-offensive since they don't have defensive muscle and to consolidate their popularity. Image
4) Here the hard part will remain to #Russia's MoD, as #Wagner wants to show how much incompetent High Command is. MoD will try to use DNR to defend and to organize OA purposes in #Bakhmut. MoD will also beef-up town's defences with VDV's from already-weak Svatove-#Kreminna line. Image
5) In recent days, #Ukraine's long range strikes increasingly focused on #Melitopol vicinity and mostly #Berdyansk, Mariupol and Tokmak axis. This axis is one of the main GLOCs and force concentration point of the 🇷🇺 military. Strikes tries to instigate chaos within the 🇷🇺 ranks. Image
6) In combination with HIMARS, #Ukraine now use its new planes received from Poland and Slovakia to deliver GLSDB and Storm Shadow munitions to create disorder, logistical losses and forcing Russian troops to avoid from concentration points near #Melitopol and #Tokmak.
7) Serious reports indicate that 9 Tu-95s and two Tu-22s are airborne and positioning themselves for a possible missile strikes in #Ukraine. Potential targets will be again Ukrainian air defences around #Kyiv and possible force concentration zones.
8) Please remember: Never share the footages of ADs when they are engaging with missiles.Even ADs work mishaps could happen and fallen debris could cause serious harm. Please stay indoors and turn of the wifis and radar wave emitting things. #Ukraine #Kyiv
9) After increasing frequency and capacity of #Ukraine's long range strikes, #Russia is increasing its preparedness for a possible defence of Crimean Bridge. Russia increasingly use jamming and smokescreen systems to protect logistically important bridge.
10) Smoke screen was successfully used by Nazi Germany and other belligerent states after the war. Usually they are assumed to be effective in protecting slow paced or stationary targets from aerial reconing. Germans coveed battleship Tirpitz in Kaafjord, Norway via smokescreen. Image
11) But in contemporary warfare and Russo-Ukrainian War, smokescreen is slightly ineffective (artilley is exception). This is due to increasing capacity of strike via GPS, precision guided munitions and others. Smokescreen is more a caution for VFR, reconing and manuel targeting. Image
12) #Russia sees camouflage as part of its Maskirovka doctrine which includes both tactical and strategic aspects. 🇷🇺 tried to use this in #Ukraine to achieve its Reflexive Control Doctrine combined with use of dezinformatsiya voyna. Which remained as quite limited in effectivity Image
13) This improvement is not related with the success of #Ukraine’s air defences but rather related with increased number, quality and types of #Russia’s hardware. It is clear that 🇷🇺 increased its production capacity via arrival of new microchips. But success came with hardships.
14) After #Bakhmut, #Russia restarted its offensive efforts around #Kupyansk vicinity. These offensives are more like minor offensives to consolidate Russian positions. But it is unclear that how much Russian military allocates men and resources for this sector.
15) However another risk is riping up around #Kreminna for a major offensive. For now, it is unclear how much #Russia is committed for this sector since they still could be in minor offensives for tactically strengthening their positions around Torske, Lyman and Siversk.
16) It is unlikely for #Russia to commit that sum of equipment, men and resources to recapture Lyman or advance to #Siversk before the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive. However, result of #Ukraine’s offensive could decide the Russian ambition to whether act boldly or not. Image
17) Looks like #Ukraine’s long range strike tactics are paying off. #Russia is relocating its equipment from the concentration points around #Mariupol. This will have a slight impact on troop disposition and logistics. It created expected rush and chaos within the 🇷🇺 ranks.
18) For many years, usage of old Soviet equipments by #NATO members were accepted as a weakness. But war in #Ukraine turned this tide in reverse, Poland refitted Ukrainian jets to carry Western munitions with its know-how that they have. Kyiv’s adoptation is really fast.
19) We see increased reports of #Ukraine's strikes against #Russia's valuable targets like air defences, counter-battery systems, EW systems and logistical support vehicles. These supportive systems are harder to replenish and have a cumulative influence.
20) Another impressive performance by #Ukraine’s air defences. Ukrainian forces achieved to intercept %90 of UAVs by mostly using lesser quality and older ADs. This shows that cost-efficiency nexus and Kyiv’s air defence capability is improving.
21) Rather than expected counter-offensives in rear South, #Ukraine's forces conducted a 'minimal and reconing' offensive operations around #Donetsk. Minimal Ukrainian gains are now being assesing around #Vuhledar and #Bakhmut with some inevitable losses.
22) #Vuhledar symbolizes an important value with its geographic position. The town was numerous times targeted by Russian forces which failed. It has a strong position since Ukraine could threaten both rear of #Donetsk (Mar'inka) and deep south Mariupol. Image
23) Any success here could push #Russia to choose between defending #Melitopol or the logistical routes to Mariupol-#Bakhmut. We need to remember that despite fortifications, RAF in this zone is suffered from men shortages. But for now, it is hard to reach any conclusion. Image
24) Another factor is #Ukraine's stated force composition. If Russian claims are real, 🇺🇦 use its previous tactics of ambushing rural road and towns via MRAPs to minimally change the flanks. Any complete offensive with heavy euipment is not in place yet.
25) Russia blew up the dam in #NovaKahkovka. Destruction of dam led to a flood in riverside towns like #Kherson. This shows how much 🇷🇺 are in panic for a possible cross-river landing by #Ukraine. Destruction of dam increase the widht of river, speed up the current and risk ZPP.
26) We need to remember that #Russia released significant amount of water in #NovaKahkovka Dam for months. But destruction of it will still clearly have an impact. Beside damaging towns, infrastructure and environment this move also has strategic results on both sides. Image
27) Flooding will probably led to submersion of islands near #Kherson and #Oleshky and destroy the narrow strip with trees which used for reconing. It wil led to a submersion of coastal beaches in #Kinburn Spit which will make landings harder. Oleshky Sands will be the new coast.
28) A part from islands around #Oleshky, it will clearly hit port region of #Kherson. This could delay and harden the embarkment, disembarkment and supplying process of equipment in case of possible Ukrainian cross-Dnipro landing. Image
29) Initial impact bir of flooding caused by blewing up of Nova Kahkovka Dam. The move will also paralyze #Russia’s logistics and already bad reconing capacity by destroying exterior lines of Communication. But Russia stopped using roads parallel to river since January.
30) Human+environmental toll of this move should needs to addressed by int. community. The greatest coalition vs ISIS was arranged after they threatened the Dam in Mosoul. Strong response is needed. Emergency search-and-rescue assistance and temporary housing should be provided.
31) Destruction of the dam will also have drastical impact on #Zaporizhzia Nuclear Power Plant. The plant excessively used water from the Kahkovka Resorvoir. Here a thread to understand how it works and how its safety is provided. We also need to follow this.
32) First indicators shows that the dam is destroyed from its upper side of the structure which will limit the speed of release of water if new collapse will not occur. The dam also supplied #Crimea’s resorvoirs. We need to see the stabilized levels to theorize further its impact Image
33) Looks like the situation is becoming worser. All upper structure could not hold further due to high levels of water after the end of winter in #NovaKakhovka Dam. For #Kherson, #Oleshky and rest we could think worst case scenarios, please follow the evacuation orders.
34) Please don’t get closer to the riverine shoreline to film or observe the flood around #Kherson, #Oleshky and #NovaKahkovka without authorization. Flash strong floods and ashored and detonated mines could led to life threatening danger. #Ukraine #Zaporizhia #Mykolaiv
35) The situation in #ZNPP was in cold shutdown process which is the most secure way to shut a NPP down. But this process still requires sustained electricity supply to cool down the reactor. For now, NPP uses its own water to cool down the reactor and did not need new freshwater
36) National Police of #Ukraine announced evacuation orders for certain towns, villages and parts of #Kherson city centre around #Dnipro River. Please take your pets, relatives, IDs in evacuation and follow the orders of officers. Folow: @NPU_GOV_UA
npu.gov.ua/news/uvaha-ros…
37) If you are living in Russian occupied side of Dnipro or if you could not reach anyone or security and emergency officers. Here you can find some life-saving tips from US Army's dam failure evacuation and survival guide. #Kherson #Ukraine #NovaKakhovka #Oleshky #Mykolaiv ImageImage
38) Lastly, bursting of the dam was occured just in the inital days of Summer season. The dam was supplied to both #Ukraine and other occupied territories especially #Crimea for housing, industry and farming. We will see problematic days and need for water supplies to regions. Image
39) Some Russian soldiers also stranded among the flooded strips with trees on boats that claimed as stolen from local people. This move which seemed as super smart for Russian Command will further turn to a super dumbness in coming weeks.
40) In the coming days, #Russia could withdraw huge number of its forces from #Kherson and #NovaKahkovka to support its defensive efforts around #Zaporizhzia’s Melitopol and to Vuhledar-Mariupol line. Yesterday we underlined imminent men shortages at there. Image
41) It is clear that Russian forces, now, think Dnipro (at least in that part) is impenetrable and Ukraine will consume time resources to protect and evacuate people. Russian Command, now, relocate its forces around GLOCs to deep South in #Kherson. Image
42) #Ukraine’s Ministry of Interior Affairs announced that 80 villages around #Kherson and Beryslav are now under threat of the flood. Government speed-up the evacuation process with 718 officers and will hand out fresh water. Please inform authorities if you are in need of help.
43) In addition to risk of floodings, deep and blurred waters and ashored mines, please be aware of reported shellings of🇷🇺 forces against evacuations in #Kherson. Sewage was also reported in the waters of #NOVAKAKHOVKA please minimize your contact with water and wash your hands. Image
44) Here urgent concern is the extended sanitation effects of this violent act. Sewage and approaching hotter days, combined with logistical problems and need of water could spread diseases and led a mosquito problem. Given the fact of antibiotic resistance it would be harder.
45) Hospitals around #Mykolaiv and #Kherson has already targeted for numerous times while housing is the most harmed industry. To prevent a housing and healthcare crisis, #Ukraine will need to arrange evacuation and relocation of vulnerable people and working supplies of water.
46) Things would become worser for #Russia too. Field hospitals around occupied #Kherson was already full and will probably take the burden of possible Ukrainian offensive. Decreased life quality would led to questioning of OA and will encourage partizan movements.
47) #EU offered help to #Ukraine to arrange and mitigate evacuation and assistance provision efforts via EU Civil Prptection Program after the destruction of the #NovaKakhovka Dam. Same program was also initiated in devastative earthquakes happened in Turkey.
48) After more than 30 hours, the situation in #NovaKahkovka Dam is uncontrollable by any human intervention. It would at least take a week for the river to find its new width and downstream. Reconstruction of dam will take decades.
49) The situation in occupied bank of #Dnipro is even worser when we consider Russian irresponsibility. It is so sad to see that many of residents who remained there could only wait for water levels to be stabilized. Staying away from water is essential.
50) Environmental impact of loss of the dam will be super-significant. #Ukraine probably lost its wildlife parks and ecosystem in Black Sea coast and #Oleshky Sands. Damages on wildlife, fishing, farming and pollution could only be seen in coming months.
washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…
51) Ukrainian Environmental Ministry warn of possible spill of oil in Dam to the flood waters. If you live within the downstream industrial zones, especially within industrial suburbs of #NovaKahkovka, #Kherson, #Oleshky and Kinburn Spit pollution levels could be higher. Image
52) The unbelievable footage that shows the impact of flood caused by the destruction of #NovaKakhovka Dam. As expected port side of #Kherson, #Oleshky islands/strips and Potemkin Island completely submerged. Flooded Zabalka District, now, become new riverine coast of Kherson.
53) #Ukraine’s Ministry of Interior Affairs announced that evacuations and rescue efforts were continuing in #Kherson. The Ministry is working on a plan to assist and rescue abondoned people from the flood-impacted areas of occupied bank of Dnipro River.
54) Could we take this statement as a stated operational goal? Yes but it is not unchanging. #Melitopol and #Starobilsk is the ultimate military and operational objective. While liberation of Crimea and Dombass is the main political goal for #Ukraine.
55) #Ukraine's Southern Command is now too distracted from future offensives due to its need for a focusing on search-and-rescue and supplying efforts. We would see how long this will take and whether it would create an effect over the other Commands.
56) The bigger problem is that intl. community (IC) is too distracted by the question of 'who did this attack'? They are so distracted that they even failed to create a humanitarian assistance or a peer-pressure to Russia to allow evacuations from occupied bank. A big loss for IC Image
57) Failure of global water governance showed that strength is the only way to converse and govern water resources rather than a intl. governance. This would pave the way for potential dangers in other dam resorvoirs in geopolitical hot-spots like Mekong, Blue Nile and Himalayas. Image
58) Destruction of #NovaKahkovka Dam led to power cuts for 20.000 people. Water reserves in Kahkovka Resorvoir for ZNPP, now, fells to 12,83m. Constant shelling continues in #Kherson by #Russia to hamper the evacuation efforts and to keep Ukrainian Army busy with MOSOW in South.
59) According to #IAEA reports #Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant still requires water to cool down reactors + cooling ponds even Cold Shutdown. ZNPP continues to use #Kahkovka Resorvoir. But tomorrow water levels could fell under 2.7m which is minimum depth for pumps to function.
60) If pumps will not work anymore and #Kahkovka Resorvoir was completely lost, plant will still have 2-3 months with its freshly discharged water. IAEA underlined that the ZNPP will use the water reserves of #Zaporizhzhia Thermal Power Plant to feed NPP’s cooling process. Image
61) Looks like #Ukraine’s counter-offensive has started in the Southeastern direction but major movement of forces is still unknown. For now, nothing much could be told about it. Equipment and other losses are unfortune but unavoidable part of war. It would be a long process. Image

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More from @ArveloaMert

Mert N. Matsumoto (松本信秀) Profile picture
Sep 17
It's worth reading this impressive initial report from the Financial Times. It is linked to Israel and is quite significant in terms of offensive cyber operations. Lets analyze, #Israel's large scale cyber operation against #Hezbollah in #Lebanon.
ft.com/content/dbaac6…
1) Firstly, the attack was designed to cause real damage using cyber/virtual tools vs a strategically important network (communication infrastructure). It was carried out in a very organized manner, but it is also stated that the attack was not heavily based on 'remote intrusion'
2) Another observation is based on the fact that the batteries of pagers are unlikely to cause this level of injury. Lithium-ion batteries are dangerous and flammable, but the condition of the injured suggests the possibility that the batteries were designed to be more explosive.
Read 15 tweets
Mert N. Matsumoto (松本信秀) Profile picture
Oct 21, 2023
Lets start the twelfth and the newest thread on the strategy of the Russo-Ukrainian War that will cover fall offensives. #Avdiivka #Bakhmut #Ukraine #Robotyne #UkraineWar #Kherson #UkraineRussiaWar️ #Melitopol #Zaporizhzhia #Kyiv #Berdyansk #Verbove #Novoprokopivka #Tokmak Image
1) Here is the previous thread on the strategy of the Russo-Ukrainian War that includes issues like information warfare, Allied trainings for Ukraine, situation in #Avdiivka offensive and #Kherson counter offensive, Zaporizhzhia and modern day fortified wars and other issues.
2) Lets talk about #Russia’s losses of officers in #Ukraine. Russian Military lost unbelieavable number of 3000 officers in Ukraine from different ranks. However, the lion share the losses were concentrated on junior officers like Lieutenants and Majors. This group is important.
Read 109 tweets
Mert N. Matsumoto (松本信秀) Profile picture
Aug 23, 2023
Lets start our tenth and the newest thread on the strategy of Russo-Ukrainian War which will cover operations during the late August and early fall. #Bakhmut #Ukraine #Kreminna #Svatove #UkraineWar #UkraineRussiaWar️ #Melitopol #Zaporizhzhia #Kyiv #Mariupol #Berdyansk #Kherson Image
12) Few words on #Tokmak. We have to carefully asses the claims that state #Russia’s defences in the town is in the brink of imminent collapse. The town is one of the #Ukraine’s critical operational goals with Melitopol. Its South has key railroad link that makes the land bridge. Image
12) #Tokmak is heavily fortified town which increasingly become a target of #Ukraine’s long range strikes. But still the town is main position for #Russia to hold-on. Leaving Tokmak without a fight is highly irrational for 🇷🇺 as it would not only risk the theatre but entire war. Image
Read 92 tweets
Mert N. Matsumoto (松本信秀) Profile picture
Jul 15, 2023
Here is the ninth and the newest thread about Russo-Ukrainian War that includes #Ukraine’s counter offensive efforts in #Bakhmut. #Ukraine #Zapoizhzhia #Kreminna #Svatove #UkraineWar #Oleshky #UkraineRussiaWar️ #Melitopol #Zaporizhzhia #Kyiv #Mariupol #Berdyansk #Kherson #Wagner Image
1) You can find all earlier Twitter threads on war in #Ukraine and #Russia's unlawful invasion and more in this interactive map. Please remember that this map is not for showing the exact lines of contacts but to understand strategies.
2) Mistrust increasingly become visible after the #Wagner's mutiny within the Russian Command. After General Surovikin (who is the most senior officer that disappeared), Major Generals Popov and Vladimir Selivestrov were dismissed from their duties.
Read 45 tweets
Mert N. Matsumoto (松本信秀) Profile picture
Jun 19, 2023
Here is the eight and the newest thread about Russo-Ukrainian War that includes #Ukraine’s counter offensive efforts in #Zaporizhzhia #Ukraine #Bakhmut #Kreminna #Svatove #UkraineWar #Oleshky #UkraineRussiaWar️ #Melitopol #Zaporizhzhia #Kyiv #Mariupol #Berdyansk #Kherson #Wagner Image
13) The Attacker could use firepower to prevent this laying process. But just like the first aspect, defenders could increase their fire power which would decrease the operational pace. Russian decision to relocate troops from Kherson and further risking of air power shows this. Image
14) But different from what Malthus claimed, just like population all this laying and firepower increase process has a limit of production, resupply and logistics. In long run with long-range strikes #Ukraine could balance this rate if they can achieve to protect their equipment. Image
Read 97 tweets
Mert N. Matsumoto (松本信秀) Profile picture
Apr 26, 2023
Here is the sixth thread 🧵 about the strategy of the #RussoUkrainianWar for the late spring.Russia continues to focus on Dombass while Ukraine is still planning its offensive efforts. #Bakhmut. #Ukraine #Russia #Soledar #Kreminna #Svatove #Wagner #UkraineWar #Leopard2 #Vuhledar Image
1) As always please take a look for understanding how a counter-offensive should be conducted, what are the goals and requirements and for the events that occured between September to November.
2) You can take a look to this thread for the first part of the Ukrainian Winter Counter Offensive which includes the situation and events between November to January.
Read 31 tweets

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