,
19 tweets,
4 min read
Read on Twitter
This by @FlipChartRick is an excellent explanation of why “no deal” is not, practically, a credible position. flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2017/10/13/no-…
There seem to be three strands of thought among those who promulgate the “no deal” option as a serious option.
1. There is what one might call the @andrew_lilico or @johnredwood group. They simply ignore all the evidence that no deal is incredible.
There is the blithe assumption that, with sufficient faith and effort, it can work.
But actually grappling with the issues is someone else’s problem. They make no attempt to do so themselves.
2. There is then the @iealondon group, exemplified here.
These rely on a sleight of hand. “No deal” isn’t, in fact, “no deal” at all. 
The assumption that negotiating agreements on pharma, fin servs, aviation is easy is ... courageous. Especially as (I guess) @iealondon ...
... isn’t suggesting the UK continues to maintain EU standards for ever.
3. Finally, there is the Martin Howe QC and @lawyers4britain group. They don’t actually propose “no deal” but say we should develop it ...
... as a feint or bluff, or to cause the EU “misgivings” that we might do it. See this thread.
However, this suffers from the obvious - and unanswered - objection that a rational and intelligent interlocutor is not impressed ...
... by incredible threats. If my opponent in poker knows my cards consist of Mr Bun the Baker, the 5♣️, and the 🃏, my bluff won’t work,
What then to do? It is very hard to know. (I wouldn’t have started from here, of course.) But if you have a weak hand in litigation...
... the first thing is to get the client (here, the public) to be realistic about what can be done.
It’s also important to mend fences with the other side and to find non-zero sum issues where you can offer cooperation.
Coming up with implausible threats just isn’t the right approach.
Worse, the pretence that “no deal” is an option opens the gate to those who will claim that any, imperfect, deal is a stab in the back.
The Dolchstoßlegende poisoned inter-war German politics. Any equivalent could well poison ours.
