Appears corporate AMT provision probably raises >$300B, not $40B JCT estimated under duress Fri night. This means Rs have to take Senate bill to conference and can’t just have House pass it, unless they want to *really* piss off bus community. 1/5
I’m getting >$300B from fact that provision appears to repeal R&D credit, which costs ~$113B, and participation exemption, which costs $216B. See JCT estimates at jct.gov/publications.h… and jct.gov/publications.h…. 2/5
And corporate AMT provision does a lot more than this, so even $300B is probably low-balling. 3/5
Before corp AMT amendment, Senate bill raised taxes on individuals by $82B and cut taxes on business by $48B in 2027. After amendment, could conceivably raise taxes on both, incl. US MNEs and manufacturers, though need revised JCT estimates to know for sure. 4/5
Fact that Rs have to go to conference constrains their options, especially if Collins, Flake or others have second thoughts after seeing more evidence that commitments they received (e.g., Alexander-Murray, DACA) are not going to be honored. 5/5
