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Ian Dunt @IanDunt
, 8 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Checking in on deal, bleary eyed as a bastard, from Argentina. Looks good to me. Shift towards soft Brexit as default position.
'Regulatory alignment' is a big open phrase of course - only reason we can do deal now is by making language as expansive as possible.
But in 12 months we've gone from 'we'll make decisions on food labelling' to this. They'll shift again in next 12 months.
May gave them everything. The EU gave next-to nothing. The UK government is a leaf in the wind.
We could easily end up with SM/CU membership as result of this. Or in a permanent state of transition. Or in a v.close regulatory embrace. All to fight for.
Finally, this isn't a deal with meaning. That can is getting kicked very decisively down the road to avoid a March 2018 no-dealy horror show for business.
All May's problems, incl that Good Friday basically sucks her into SM/CU like a vortex, remain. She's still toast.
Right now I'm getting back to my bastard holiday.
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More from @IanDunt see all

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Strongly advise you watch parliament right now parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/e5…
It's full of business motion, amendment blah de blah - but in reality it is parliament kicking back against a government which has undermined and ignored it at every turn
Ken Clarke: "I find it unbelievable that people are putting such effort into excluding the possibility of the House expressing its opinion. I say to my honourable friends who are getting over excited, that perhaps they should don a yellow jacket and go outside."
Read 4 tweets
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Quick reminder that most Tory MPs - not some, most - are deeply misinformed.
Their constituents have tried. They have been sent material constantly over the last two and a half years and regularly emailed, all of it to inform them about basic facts over Brexit. They've ignored them and read the Telegraph.
Echo chamber culture is not just about social media. It is in parliament too.
Read 3 tweets
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I really do try with the echo chamber thing, but nearly every day I have to unfollow someone on the other side just because of the rampant conspiracy theory tosh.
There are still lots of Leave voters in my stream, but all of them have either changed their mind, or become so disillusioned by Brexit that they're just mostly in pain or resignation.
Anyone still actively and enthusiastically supporting it has had to go through so many emotional and intellectual contortions that they've start to look quite insane.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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#Brexit #thread
1/ If you don’t follow Brexit every day, here’s some advice. Let go of any illusions that this drama is about trade protocols, residency rights or the status of the Irish border. Brexit is the story of a proud former imperial power undergoing a mid-life crisis
2/ The rest of the world is left listening to Britain’s therapy session as they drone on about their ex-spouse, unable to see, admit or address their own flaws.
3/ The promise of Brexit was that it would make Britain feel big again. “Britain is special,” the Brexiteers assured British voters, who cast their ballots accordingly. But Brexit has proven that for the first time in modern history, Britain is small.
Read 22 tweets
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1) It’s 7.30 pm in Brussels and the political declaration on the future EU - U.K. relationship - scheduled to be pretty much finished today is not yet complete. Negotiations are ongoing
2) The PM is coming to Brussels tomorrow to discuss the text. She’s expected to push for some sense of her Chequers plan for #Brexit to be recognisable in the document
3) But now she’s not the only party doing the pushing. Spain is making demands over Gibraltar and France is fighting for fishing rights in U.K. waters after Brexit
Read 10 tweets
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1) That #Brexit election conundrum
Thread
By all accounts Rees Mogg is making his bid for Tory Leadership, which in turn may lead to yet another GE.
But this next GE, as things stand, will likely lead to another hung parliament because of #Brexit
2) that's because each party is polling roughly 42% and remain/leave is still roughly split 50-50
But both parties have leavers & remainers as supporting voters.

Maintaining the current status quo ("our Brexit is better than their Brexit") will lead to a similar GE outcome
3) nothing will have changed particularly (other than perhaps it being clearer that Labour "accepts" Brexit) so there's no reason to assume 30 seats will shift either way.

Labour will be no more attractive to Tory voters than they were last year and the same goes for Tory party
Read 7 tweets
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1. So with #Brexit, we now have a provisional whole UK political agreement that we will have regulatory alignment with a view to maintaining free movement of goods. The future trade agreement will have to respect those conditions.
2. That is a long winded way of say that so far as goods are concerned, we are staying in the single market. That though does not take into account services, air travel and the many other areas covered by the EEA agreement. That is still for negotiation.
3. When it comes down to that, it is likely that the UK will wish to preserve as much access to the EU aviation market as possible with the same or similar rights to the EEA. We have, as yet, no concrete position on what the UK will ask for in terms of services.
Read 25 tweets
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1) Labour & #Brexit - thread
Quick analysis of this article by @Peston
It talks about a recent private meeting led by McDonnell and is, hopefully a sign that Labour may engage on fighting hard #brexit

But...it doesn't put Labour in a good light

2) firstly, this comment
This illustrates 2 things:
I) after months of people saying that EU membership doesn't limit Labour plans McDonnell has, only now, when #Brexit is at risk, gotten round to proving this for himself - what on earth has he been doing in the meantime?
3) ii) Labour Leadership launched this Manifesto without first checking if it was compatible with even a soft Brexit, therefore they have clearly been supporting hard #Brexit all this time, under the assumption it was needed for their plans, despite the pain it would cause
Read 9 tweets
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First impressions on joint report on first phase of #Brexit negotiations:

This is the first real milestone towards orderly Brexit. It should both put political fictions of exit from Brexit & chaotic no deal scenario to bed.

ec.europa.eu/commission/sit…
/1
Substantial agreements are in place for guarantuing citizen's rights, including legal protection for the foreseeable for 8 years after Brexit.

Key is 'reciprocal protection' and avoidance of any unnecessary administrative burdens.
/2
Positive are that necessary details on social security, health care, recognition of qualifications etc. are settled.

Ironically, this includes more access to UK social security for current EU citizens than Camerons renegotiation.
/3
Read 8 tweets

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