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tony nog #FBPE @tony_nog
, 7 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1) That #Brexit election conundrum
By all accounts Rees Mogg is making his bid for Tory Leadership, which in turn may lead to yet another GE.
But this next GE, as things stand, will likely lead to another hung parliament because of #Brexit
2) that's because each party is polling roughly 42% and remain/leave is still roughly split 50-50
But both parties have leavers & remainers as supporting voters.

Maintaining the current status quo ("our Brexit is better than their Brexit") will lead to a similar GE outcome
3) nothing will have changed particularly (other than perhaps it being clearer that Labour "accepts" Brexit) so there's no reason to assume 30 seats will shift either way.

Labour will be no more attractive to Tory voters than they were last year and the same goes for Tory party
4) the only way for a party to gain a majority is to take a position, either
a) convince enough leavers that Brexit is bad and they will soften or halt it.
b) convince enough remainers that #Brexit is good and that they are the best party to make it successful.
This is the route
5) there is no other way. #Brexit can't be ignored.

The point is however the tory vote is majority leave and Labour is majority remain/soft Brexit.

Labour will struggle to convince enough of its remainers that leaving is a good idea
6) in the end the only thing Labour can do is take a pro soft/no Brexit position and convince its minority leave vote that this is the way forward, it will then attract sufficient Tory remainers to potentially win a majority
7) but either way, as long as both Labour & Tories have essentially the same Brexit policy neither will distinguish themselves enough to win a workable majority, and we'll be back to hung parliaments every GE
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