1/ Rant time. We all talk about the transition constantly, but often not about why we’re actually doing this. You could be forgiven for thinking it’s Britain's only option.
2/ By any measure it’s a terrible deal. Accepting *all* EU laws (not just some like Norway) - including new ones you get no say over whatsoever - for two years. Nobody would pursue that unless it was their only choice…right?
3/ In fact, the EU are rather indulging Britain here. The initial presumption on the continent was that when the time came the UK would simply ask to extend the Article 50 period for two years. They were anticipating such a request.
4/ They presumed this because it would’ve been logical. Extending Article 50 is easy - one simple vote by the EU Council (which they would’ve approved…still would actually) and voila - membership extended for two years. No untried legal shenanigans. No loss of representation.
5/ To be clear, the EU is not imposing this transition route on us. We have actually been a real pain in the arse and asked for this convoluted solution ourselves, and we have done so for entirely domestic political reasons.
6/ This is all so May can say we have technically ‘left’ the EU in March 2019. Even if, in reality, nothing has changed as she herself would say. This was a technicality demanded by eurosceptic MPs.
7/ They were worried that if we didn’t legally leave the EU in 2019, but instead extended our membership for two years whilst we negotiated our exit, Brussels and Remainers would work together to ensure we’d never get out at all.
8/ This overlooked several things, not least that the EU doesn’t want an indefinite Brexit negotiation any more than we do. Remainers are not really seen as some great white hope over here like they think they are. The EU has moved on - it’s got other stuff to get on with.
9/ Looking at recent polling, this approach could be starting to backfire on eurosceptics. Extending Article 50 early in the process would’ve been easy, provided certainty and created goodwill that the UK was approaching the talks sensibly.
10/ Parallel universes and all that, but you’d tend to think the first phase of the divorce would’ve gone more smoothly and calmly (with fewer panicky headlines) without this mad rush to squeeze in a needless transition.
11/ It also makes it look like we’re getting a bad deal. Two years of Article 50 plus two years of a ‘vassal state’ copy and paste transition for me looks worse than just being honest with people up front and securing four years of Article 50.
12/ Some MPs thought we could achieve a full withdrawal within the two-year Article 50 period. Others believed we’d be able to negotiate a bespoke transition in that time. Both positions were always hopelessly optimistic.
13/ So now we’re left with a ‘furious race against time’, as the EU puts it, whilst in uncharted waters. There are some who think the transition might not be quite as simple as hoped and could take up most of the rest of the Article 50 window.
14/ Finally, all of this is political. British negotiators have actually done a rather underrated job thus far in the talks, especially on the financial settlement, but they are working within trying political constraints.
