Thread by @TobiasBunde

On my way home from #MSC2018 - and even more worried than before. When people who don't spend much time with world politics ask whether it is as bad as the media say I now respond: No, it's actually worse.

First, the world has seen a frightening amount of brinkmanship recently. Whether it's East Asia, the Middle East or even Eastern Europe - there is an increased risk of escalation. Many speeches at #MSC2018 have underscored this - in many cases, they added fuel to the fire.

Second, there was a lack of constructive ideas to solve some of the most pressing conflicts: The participants of the Normandy format didn't even meet to discuss. It's hard to imagine a good solution to the INF issue. And it's even worse when it comes to Syria or North Korea.

Third, beyond these "classical" (and more immediate) security crises, we are facing tremendous long-term challenges related to the rise of new technologies and the rise of illiberal great powers (...and we are only beginning to grasp their implications).

Most importantly, the traditional "guardians" of the liberal international order seem overwhelmed and paralyzed. To many in Munich, the US increasingly looks like a rudderless ship, and the Europeans mostly offer analyses rather than strategies.

The community of liberal democracies is showing signs of disintegration. Some allies threaten each other, some even did not want to sit on stage together in Munich. Major politicians (not just in the US) now regularly attack basic liberal values.

As someone who thinks that the relations among liberal democracies are indeed special because of their underlying collective identity, I fear that this doesn't bode well for the future of institutions such as #NATO and the EU. And this doesn't bode well for the world. #MSC2018

*Addendum: This thread, quickly written on the train, apparently hit a nerve. It has been shared widely and quoted by several media. Thanks also to @ChristianFraser & @BBCJonSopel for discussing #MSC2018 conclusions on their show. There is, unfortunately, not much disagreement.

For additional rather pessimistic #MSC2018 conclusions see the pieces by @dandrezner (washingtonpost.com/news/postevery…), @thomaswright08 (theatlantic.com/international/…) and @JeremyCliffe (economist.com/blogs/kaffeekl…). I hope #MSC2019 summaries will be more optimistic!