It's really not difficult to understand this.
The birthrate is plunging in the U.S. because it's too expensive to raise a child. And it's too expensive to raise a child because of a combination of right-wing social policy and economic shifts our government hasn't prepared for.
The birthrate is plunging in the U.S. because it's too expensive to raise a child. And it's too expensive to raise a child because of a combination of right-wing social policy and economic shifts our government hasn't prepared for.
First, the U.S. has no mandate for paid parental leave, no universal pre-K, no universal health care, no long-term cash welfare, and not only no universal higher education, but we've slashed subsidies that keep tuition rates low.
Now the GOP is trying to slash food aid too!
Now the GOP is trying to slash food aid too!
Oh and let's not forget housing. Ever since 1960s era reforms that codified housing policy can't be whites-only, we've slashed housing assistance. It's now unaffordable to buy or rent a place big enough for children in most every city where there are jobs in significant numbers.
Oh, and about those jobs. That's the other problem.
In the 50s, physical capital was lower, so human capital was more valuable. That meant that there were way more good-paying, long-term jobs that didn't require a college degree.
In the 50s, physical capital was lower, so human capital was more valuable. That meant that there were way more good-paying, long-term jobs that didn't require a college degree.
As machines replaced most of those jobs, productivity went up so much that most skilled manual jobs are no longer needed.
Now, most paying careers require A) a college degree (so there's more debt) and B) frequent job changes (so fewer jobs can have pensions or a union).
Now, most paying careers require A) a college degree (so there's more debt) and B) frequent job changes (so fewer jobs can have pensions or a union).
There's no easy fix for this. The government can't, and shouldn't try to, turn back the clock on the technological progress that made all this happen.
But there are many social policies the government could enact to shift the cost of these changes off of families with children.
But there are many social policies the government could enact to shift the cost of these changes off of families with children.
For example, basic income with generous benefits for dependents, and huge investment in job transition programs for working families, funded at least in part by taxing corporate profits.
We aren't doing that. In fact, Republicans just slashed taxes on corporate profits.
We aren't doing that. In fact, Republicans just slashed taxes on corporate profits.
Now, many people have pointed out immigration can also offset birthrate declines.
That's true. But that shouldn't be *why* we expand immigration. We should do it as a matter of basic principle that anyone who wants to work and live by our country's ideals should have a right to.
That's true. But that shouldn't be *why* we expand immigration. We should do it as a matter of basic principle that anyone who wants to work and live by our country's ideals should have a right to.
Immigration does great things for our economy and our culture, but it doesn't solve the underlying structural problems that have made it too expensive for middle class and poor families to raise children.
And I think that, unfortunately, is the cynical reason many business leaders who are red-blooded GOP in all other respects, like the Kochs, embrace immigration.
It's a band-aid that keeps focus off structural problems they would have to pay more taxes and worker benefits to fix.
It's a band-aid that keeps focus off structural problems they would have to pay more taxes and worker benefits to fix.
Oh, and I feel like I shouldn't have to remind everybody, but:
Hillary Clinton was the only candidate in decades to make how expensive it is to raise a child a core issue of her campaign.
Now that debate is doomed to be swept under the rug for years until it's even worse.
Hillary Clinton was the only candidate in decades to make how expensive it is to raise a child a core issue of her campaign.
Now that debate is doomed to be swept under the rug for years until it's even worse.
One day we are going to have to come to grips with this, and enact sweeping policies designed to lower the cost of raising a family.
We should start talking about it sooner rather than later. It will be more painful the longer we wait.
We should start talking about it sooner rather than later. It will be more painful the longer we wait.
