Whoa. @NarangVipin is right. Don't tell me this doesn't shake one's confidence in the wisdom of the summit. Is this guy ready to negotiate? Even if it does go well, isn't the inverse risk of it not going well at practically the same level of probability now? Isn't that scary? /1
Why are we going into a summit of this magnitude w/ so many doubts @ the outcome? Shouldn't such a weighty summit be far more mapped out than this one? So that a good outcome is the overwhelmingly likely outcome, rather than just one, low-to-middling possibility among others? /2
I am not opposed to talks; I want inter-Korean reconciliation and improvement too. But why are we pinning our hopes on a what is increasingly a Trumpian crap-shoot driven by POTUS' mood? Are we so desperate to get talks with NK that we're just hoping now? Why do people keep /3
saying 'well, we'll see what happens,' or 'let's give it a chance,' or 'let's wait and see', as if that's an argument, as if suddenly our critical faculties go on hold bc of talks? We can actually make educated speculation on the summit given what we know about Trump and the N /4
Koreans, and there are a lot of signs to suggest the high probability of a bust, & a genuine, if lower, possibility it will go badly (Trump's racism, e.g,. or threats to just walk out). Why is no one talking about the possible downside risks () - which /5
are much higher than in a normal summit due to Trump's 'unique' character? I am not predicting the summit will fail or go badly. In fact, it probably won't, because both leaders have high incentives for at least a bust outcome (). But the likelihood it /6
will go well for the democratic camp is low () and the possibility it will go badly is much higher than normal for something like this. Hence my continuing inclination to cancel this, or at least postpone until enough staff and diplomatic work can be /7
done to create a high likelihood of an outcome we find acceptable, and to forestall the higher-than-normal risk it will go badly with yelling match between Kim and Trump, for example. END
