I'm still not sure whether fascism or socialism will triumph over the next few decades, but I do know that orthodox liberalism (and branches of it, such as Frum-style conservatism) is ending. And quickly. Like 4-6 years maximum quickly.
Here's where I see it going:
Here's where I see it going:
First: Clinton/Obama-style liberalism as represented by the Chaits and Maddows and Drums will fuse with CATO/Bush-style conservatism as represented by the Frums and Roves and McCains. They still won't be a plurality, but they'll have some influence that way. This one's a given.
The second will depend on how strong the fascist faction is. Fascism by itself won't be a majority starting out. This may and will change depending on if it decides to try to expand the definition of the herrenvolk and how bad climate change ends up being in the next few decades.
(All bets are off of course if the fascists implement the Pinochet/Milosevic route and swiftly consolidate rather than pretend they're playing electoral politics like Trump. My analysis assumes they're subject to the pressures of one or two electoral cycles.)
Anyway, if the fascists don't look to be completely dominated by the socialists (think of how utterly crushed the previous regimes were in 1936 and 1984 to get an idea) the tendency of this liberal-conservative fusion will be to sympathize with the fascists.
The shift in sympathies won't be instant. It'll come as a side effect of the liberal-conservative consensus trying to quell internal dissent. Conservatives will play nice with the fascists to maintain influence and the liberals in this faction will be dragged along for the ride.
This is already happening, See: anti-Trumpers in the liberal-conservative consensus. Conservatives bend over backwards in a (vain) attempt to maintain influence with the proto-fascists and the liberals end up rehabilitating W. Bush and Kissinger to appease the conservatives.
Anyway, what will happen next will depend on whether a LCC + fascist coalition is enough to grab a majority. If it's enough for a majority, it'll be simple: this fusion faction will swiftly move towards Singapore-style fascism, with the liberals and conservatives providing cover.
Again, you can already see this happening. See: the Schumer and Maddow and Maher types carrying water for Trump's wars in Israel and Iran and Syria and the global south, by focusing on his aesthetics and 'corruption' rather than his policy. It'll be like that, but more intense.
If it's still not enough to grab a majority, the LCC + fascist fusion will have its LCC thinkfluencers try to use their time in the woods to try to whip the fascists into shape. The effort will not go well -- it'll go even worse than their attempts to discipline the Tea Party.
The discipline will largely consist of the LCC using their money and platforms to try to get the fascists to play nice. At least nice enough so they don't get 'fuck you and die' opposition from the non-herrenvolk. This will mostly be done with superficial paeans and denialism.
You're already familiar with this form of denialism. Liberals publicly touting multiculturalism despite leading the way on racialized mass deportation and incarceration. It'll be like that as they attempt to discipline the fascists, not by, Lord no, getting them to change policy.
If that doesn't work (probably by the new generation of Pepe politicians saying the N-word after a NYT and NR give the Tom Cotton disciples a glowing profile), then the LCC will abruptly break off their alliance and attempt to try to worm their way into the socialists.
Anyway, the point I'm trying to get across is that the LCC is not going to try to ally with socialists to stop fascism. The LCC will ally with the fascists top try to slow down fascism. The only way the alliance will break off is if socialists can outright crush this alliance.
