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James Murray @James_BG
, 25 tweets, 7 min read Read on Twitter
There's an awful lot going on at the moment, but important to recognise there were some hugely significant developments for the global economy in Paris yesterday - so, here's a bit of a thread on the main points from the #OnePlanetSummit
First up 225 global investors with more than $26.3tr in assets under management pledged to engage with 100 corporates estimated to be responsible for around 85 per cent of total global greenhouse gas emissions /1
What does 'engage' mean? It's stronger than it sounds. businessgreen.com/bg/analysis/30… BG+
It'll take time, but it means that many of the world's most carbon intensive firms will have their owners breathing down their necks, constantly asking to see a plan for how they will handle climate impacts and deep decarbonisation /4
Arguably the most important point is the call for 2C scenarios. Firms will have to show what would happen to them if govts do as they say they will and drive deep emissions cuts over the next few decades. /5
Many will continue to ignore these scenarios, but investors will quickly learn which businesses are unviable if the Paris Agreement is honoured. /6
Plenty of firms will try and resist this investor pressure. But ExxonMobil proved yesterday you can't ignore it indefinitely. The world's largest oil major and a long-past critic of ambitious climate action is now going to report on climate related risks/7 businessgreen.com/bg/news/302289…
And ExxonMobil is not alone. One of the other big stories yesterday was Mark Carney confirming 237 companies with a market capitalisation of $6.3tr have now given their backing to the TCFD climate disclosure guidelines since their launch this summer. businessgreen.com/bg/news/302287…
It is easy to see why businesses are rushing to adopt this new form of disclosure. As Carney observed:
We can now say with a high degree of confidence all listed firms are going to start being asked about how they are planning for the low carbon transition - they are going to need answers /10
But climate disclosure is just part of it, we also know that the primary fuel that drove the industrial revolution is seeing its market constrained at a rapid rate /11
There are now over 50 countries, regions, and businesses who literally want nothing to do with unabated coal power businessgreen.com/bg/news/302294…
And a lot of top investors who feel the same way businessgreen.com/bg/news/302287…
This trend is only going in one direction. Yesterday, @JohnKerry basically called for a full blown moratorium on coal investment businessgreen.com/bg/news-analys… BG+
'So what?' you might ask, 'he's not Secretary of State anymore'. Well, no he is not. But what he is trying to do is shift the Overton Window and as last night proved there is a route back to the WH for Democrats
And it's not just coal. The trends and institutions that have toxified coal for many investors are coming for gas too. businessgreen.com/bg/news/302290…
It was 2013 when the World Bank said it would only invest in coal in exceptional circumstances, now it is saying the same about upstream oil and gas. Be in no doubt, plenty of other investors will follow the same line of thinking
Now obviously there are huge barriers to this global decarbonisation trend. Trump is the main one and, somewhat depressingly, the attempts to form a new German government could be another.
But what we are starting to see, and what the #OnePlanetSummit highlighted, is a new paradigm for businesses and investors where the expectation is that climate risks are engaged with and 2C decarbonisation trajectories embraced.
And if you run a business that is repeatedly being asked to demonstrate that it has a climate strategy, whose agenda do you want to respond with? The one adopted by every government on the planet bar one, or the one favoured by narcissism's own Donald Trump?
Cos it is becoming increasingly clear that the risk equations have flipped in the last few years. Low cost clean tech and decarbonisation is facing fewer risks than carbon intensive firms.
In short, time is being called on the fossil fuel economy and investors are not going to let businesses get away with not planning for transformation that will result businessgreen.com/bg/blog-post/3…
PS If you want to know more about what happened at #OnePlanetSummit (and it really was much more significant than the coverage suggests) @Madeleine_BG and @michaelholder have all the low down here businessgreen.com/bg/news-analys…
PPS One thing I missed from this thread is the way the investment signals are amplified by the rhetoric. All bar a handful of world leaders now *get it* on climate action and are happy to say so.
They might not always adopt the right policies and follow through on their rhetoric, but the signals matter. Eg @Number10gov saying this so unequivocally matters enormously:
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