Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #DEFLATION

Most recents (24)

What really causes inflation? 🧵

[a thread for normies - like me]
2/ The problem with #inflation is that it's a very personal experience.

As I always say, the wallet is the most sensitive organ in the body, so my inflation might not be your inflation.

In fact, my inflation could be seen as #disinflation by you... (more on that later)
3/ Price inflation and monetary inflation have different definitions:

* For many.- #inflation is the increased prices paid for goods & services.

** To others.- it's a decline in the purchasing power of your #money.

*** In layman's terms.- Too much money chasing too few goods.
Read 25 tweets
A barely known fact when it comes to the @ECB's recent interest rate hikes: Banks are now being subsidized for doing nothing.

Yes, read that again: Commercial banks connected to the #Eurosystem GAIN interest by NOT lending their money!

A 🧵 on why that is and why it's dumb.
The ECB's monetary policy toolbox comprises, among other things, three dedicated interest rates:
1. The Main Refinancing Operations (MRO) rate, currently at 1.25%
2. The rate of the Marginal Lending Facility, currently at 1.5%
3. The Deposit Facility rate (DFR), now at 0.75%
The former two rates apply when banks acquire loans from the ECB and have to pay interest on those loans. These have never been below 0%.

The latter rate, as the name suggests, applies on the money (excess reserves) a bank deposits at the ECB, i.e. money not used otherwise.
Read 14 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review
September 5, 2022

Hello Labor Day 🇺🇸!
Other than the $USD, very little that was in the green long side last week. This morning, commodities are bouncing but equities ↘️

Let’s review the week and the real-time 🧮!

Asia 🪓🩸 last week with $HSI -3.55%, $NIKK -3.45%, and $KOSPI -2.9%.

Today ↔️
$NIKK 27620 -0.1%
$SSEC 3200 +0.4%
$TWII 14661 -0.1%
$HSI 2404 -0.25%
$IDX 7232 +0.75%

$ASX 6852 +0.35%

$BSE 59209 +0.7%

Chart: $NIKK flipped to neutral Trend (T) -0.4% over the past 3 months
Unambiguously 🪓🩸 ↘️ this morning, Europe was ↔️ last week with $DAX + 0.44% and $CAC -1.7%

$DAX 12640 -3.15%
$FTSE 7200 -1.1%
$CAC 6031 -2.2%
$AEX 666 -1.9%
$IDEX 7778 -1.95%
$MIB 21327 -2.7%
$SMI 10704 -1.7%
$MOEX 2457 -0.6%

$VSTOXX 28.96 🔺

Chart: $DAX bye higher low 💣
Read 11 tweets
NEW PAPER out today "Investing in #deflation, #inflation, and #stagflation regimes" Link to study:
The study was discussed in the @washingtonpost today as well as @business
🚀 500+ downloads in 1 day!…
Read 3 tweets

Annual inflation rate in the US unexpectedly accelerated to 8.6% in May 2022, the highest since December 1981 and compared to market forecasts of 8.3%.

We have been writing #Threads 🧵on #INFLATION.

Compiling all the threads for our friends.
#Inflation, #Deflation, #Stagflation.
We have heard all these terms on #Twitter in the last few months.

Initially, we were also confused, like most of our friends.

This #Thread🧵will give a brief description of these.

Where is #Inflation?

Let's understand this from the #Indian #Customer Perspective.

Read 6 tweets

Global Macro Review 01/23/2022


US equity distribution ↘️ continued with a vengeance into Friday’s #OPEX

VIX ↗️ to ~30 ahead of Wednesday’s #FOMC event risk, leading to vol backwardation - a SHORT-TERM ♉️ signal

Let’s dig into the week's 🧮!

High correlation between the UST2Y crossing the 1.0% Rubicon on Tuesday night’s open and acceleration ↘️ in US equity markets

How pathetic is it that the equity market cannot tolerate a 1% 2Y?


Nonetheless, $TNX turned on a dime Wednesday leading to a further flattering of the yield curve with 10/s to 75.5 BPS -36% over the past 3 months (T = Trend) and 30/5s to 51.3 BPS -41% over T duration.

Chart: TNX daily
Read 14 tweets
Hello 🐫 day!

Oil ↗️

Yields ↗️

Equities ⬆️⬇️

#VIXperation on tap

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asian equities ↘️🐫

$NIKK 27467 -2.8%
$SSEC 3558 -0.35%
$TWII 18227 -0.8%
$HSI 24128 +0.05%
$KOSPI 2842 -0.75%
$IDX 6592 -0.35%

Australia ↘️🐫
$ASX 73332 -1.05%

India ↘️🐫
$BSE 60139 -1.0%
European bourses open ↔️

$DAX 15751 -0.15%
$FTSE 7562 unch
$CAC 7160 +0.35%
$AEX 769 -0.05%
$IBEX 8801 +0.2%
$MIB 27274 -0.8%
$SMI 12520 -0.05%
$MOEX 3442 +3.4% ⬅️🪆

$VSTOXX 21.96 🔺
Read 11 tweets
Time for a 🧵 on two charts (at the end) that seem to tell an interesting #Bitcoin story.

For several yrs @CaitlinLong_ has openly discussed the potential negative impact of #rehypothecation of #bitcoin by banks, wall street, hedge funds & the broader #tradfi community.
@saylor has discussed and shown the need for sound money and the value that having a savings mechanism brings to the system.

@JeffBooth has shed light on the fact that #deflation isn’t such a bad thing when #technology is actually making our lives better and costs cheaper.
@saifedean taught the 🌏 the importance of time, effort, and energy & the value that living by the #Bitcoin Standard can bring to individuals and countries across the globe.

@FossGregfoss has done a phenomenal job helping to #educate on the benefits of owning #volatile #assets.
Read 24 tweets
Die #Inflation von 4,1 % im September löst viel Empörung aus. Der Schuldige ist für manche in 🇩🇪 klar: es ist die #EZB, die die Inflation in die Höhe treibt und die #Sparer „enteignet“.

Der Alarmismus ist falsch, manipulativ und schädlich.

Ein Thread mit Zahlen und Fakten: Image
„Mega-Inflation von 4,1 Prozent frisst unser Geld auf“ (#Bild Zeitung)

Ist eine #Inflation von 4,1 % im September 2021 ein Problem?

Oder ist es nicht viel mir eine gezielte Panikmache um von Fehlern der Politik abzulenken?
Fakt #1: Preise sind im September 2021 NICHT auf ein Rekordhoch gestiegen, sondern sie sind im Vergleich zu August und Juli 2021 GLEICH geblieben (monatliche Inflation von 0,0%).
Read 22 tweets
Global Macro Review 07/25/2021

Hedge funds rattled by $RUT @Mike_Taylor1972 and active participants confused by the phase transition price action @PatrickCeresna

Let’s review what has been working/failing on trade and Trend durations for clues

t = 1-month, T = 3-months

Domestic equities bounced off Monday’s ↘️ day with $COMPQ +2.84%, $IWM +2.14%, and $SPX +1.96% for the week. But 👀 (t) + (T)

SPX +3.06% (t), +5.54% (T) ♉️
COMPQ +3.32% (t) +5.85% (T) ♉️
IWM -5.48% (t), -2.75% (T) 🐻 $COMPQ +2.84% and an ATH +5...

International equities a little less sanguine with $CAC +1.68% and $HSI -2.44% for the week

CAC -0.82% (t) +4.97% (T)
DAX +0.39% (t) + 2.55% (T) ♉️
SSEC -1.33% (t) +2.45% (T)
KOSPI -1.47% (t, +2.14% (T)
NIKK -5.22% (t) -5.07% (T) 🐻
HSI -6.73% (t) -6.04% (T) 🐻 $CAC +1.68% for the week an...
Read 16 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 06/20/2021…
CDC: Delta variant now 10% of US COVID-19 cases…

#COVID19 #variants #delta #InfectionRate
Inflation in stagflation and inflation in deflation. Same term and two different meanings.…

#stagflation #inflation #deflation #definitions
Read 8 tweets
Whichever way you personally lean, the most consequential narrative that will determine the framework for major investment decisions is #inflation vs #deflation.

ICYMI: @JeffSnider_AIP presented his case on MacroVoices

Whether our future challenge is deflation vs inflation will ultimately determine the value of not only traditional assets but also new ones.

#Bitcoin & #cryptocurrencies in general have had an evolving narrative to explain away the madness - most current one is "digital gold".
The overwhelming consensus is one of an inflation ravaged future economy.

It's just so obvious, isn't it?

And so effortless to make the argument that it would be asinine to suggest otherwise... and yet, recall Granville on the obvious in financial markets.

h/t @NuitSeraCalme Image
Read 30 tweets
Given the rising concerns and thoughts about the links between expansionary monetary policy, money supply, and inflation, I wanted to share a few opinions on the topic of inflation and the velocity of money:

#inflation #deflation #moneysupply #economics
1) M2 money supply is up about 25% from last year’s levels, which indicates both the massive money creation and the high degree of expansionary monetary policy that was needed to help stabilize America’s economy and financial markets after the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis.
2) Typically, there are 2 reasons why money velocity can rise:

1. Rising consumer and business confidence drives higher spending.

2. Rising money velocity (not rising money supply) has historically been a leading indicator of future consumer price inflation.
Read 16 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/12/2021…
Math Can Help In Deciding How To Distribute The Vaccine : NPR…

Crisis In Cosmology Gets Worse…

#cosmology #crisis
Read 8 tweets
@RaoulGMI Good Morning! You asked what is happening to #Gold and #Silver. This is my take - a summary of the governing Thesis on for a long time! Hope you can use the input! 🙋‍♂️🙂
Since ~2000 we have been in Kondratiev's Winter. A period where GLOBAL DEBT causes low and falling growth rates. Central banks try to counter this by printing money (Monetary Stimulus). However, Deflationary forces from debt causes deflations to unfold - despite extreme measures
To the frustration of Central Banks, they cannot create inflation despite extreme money printing. They stimulate by infusing money into the system but cannot make the money circulate. Velocity drops dramatically. What they miss...You cannot solve a solvency problem with Liquidity
Read 14 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 12/19/2020…
Albert Edwards: The 10-Year Yield is Heading to Zero - Articles - Advisor Perspectives…

#investing #deflation #forecast
Optimization is as hard as approximation – Machine Learning Research Blog…

#optimization #MachineLearning
Read 8 tweets
The turn of the calendar year invites the temptation to prognosticate regarding the course of the year ahead for the #economy and for #markets, and not being immune to that impulse, here are our views on the “11 themes to consider as we look toward 2021:”
In preview, one key theme is that 2021’s nominal #GDP growth is likely to surprise many skeptics with its strength. The sources of upside surprise can be found in: 1) the new #fiscal #stimulus combined with structural budget #deficits
And in 2) the @federalreserve’s ongoing asset purchases and 3) the impressive #economic momentum that is still broadly underestimated, as a post-election, and #pandemic-recovering world can catalyze 2020/21’s monetized #stimulus (more than 15% of GDP) into impressive NGDP growth.
Read 10 tweets
Why do I think #Gold, #Bitcoin are about to tumble? Because of my cross-market-analyses approach with >100 charts pointing to a deflationary bust AND the Elliott Wave structures for Gold, Bitcoin and USD. Let's try investigate 1) Deflationary Thesis and 2) Elliott Wave-structures
The Deflationary Thesis is due to the patterns shaping up in all commodities. Commodities drive inflation. First GSCI Commodity Index - a very clear Ending Diagonal Triangle (Descending Wedge). Calls for DEFLATIONARY BUST before MAJOR SECULAR BOTTOM.
#Wheat which is part of #Commodities setting direction for Inflation. Same pattern! Descending Wedge. Calls for Deflationary Bust - before Major SECULAR BOTTOM. Deflation before New Inflationary Regime!
Read 22 tweets
#AujourdhuiAuTribunal Deux jeunes hommes comparaissent pour trafic de stupéfiants : arrêtés en flagrant délit d’échange d’un sac contenant 70 grammes de cannabis, en grois moitié herbe, moitié résine.
Chez l’un des deux, la perquisition permet de découvrir 126 grammes d’herbe de cannabis et de multiples emballages couramment utilisés pour de la cession en détail.
En garde à vue, ils parlent (grosse erreur) et disent qu’ils ne se connaissaient pas. Leurs téléphone dûment exploités démontrent le contraire.
Read 36 tweets
IT. IS. HERE. Article 2: Why i hate #Bitcoin and why #Tether will end up killing it.…

15,500+ words. Nearly 90,000 characters. And a decade of theorizing about Bitcoin, combined with the Ponzi Du Jour.

#BTC #Crypto #USD #Inflation #deflation #fraud
I'm really not going to short form explain this one. Simply because it's such comprehensive article. It is literally hours worth of reading time. Don't worry; i'll introduce a fix for that soon.

If you wanna read about tether alone; skip to about half way, until the first list.
As far as arguing about it goes; Gimme a day to recover. It's 5 am and i literally have a Gastroscopy in 4 hours where they shove a camera down my throat to see why my stomach hurts xD Still need sleep somewhere.

But my DMs remain open for contact! I'll get to it eventually.
Read 4 tweets
Economics is primarily a way of thinking about the world that uncovers the true mechanisms and processes behind, and helps us understand, what we can all observe. This is a forever thread collecting my #econthread tweets. #PerBylundthreads
Read 46 tweets
Thanks to @GeoffCutmore & @cnbcKaren for having me on the show this morning.

Here's a short thread of the notes - entitled, "Time to Get Real?" - which I put together in preparation.
They should hopefully be self-explanatory:-

#SquawkBox #CNBC #macro #equities #commodities
You've heard it here before: pay out or pay down is a big part of the #inflation equation:-
Yes, there's a "V" - or at least a flipped square root sign - underway, but will it extend far enough & fast enough?
Read 11 tweets

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