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Charles Thépaut Profile picture
Charles Thépaut
@diplocharlie
French diplomat | Author “Le monde arabe en morceaux” ; “A vanishing West in the Middle East” | Personal views
3 subscribers
Aug 22 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
🧵@MetaFrance a publié le 15 août dernier son rapport trimestriel sur les opérations de manipulation de l’information (avec plusieurs enseignements intéressants !) : thread à dérouler👇 🔢 Image ❶ L’IA générative a des effets encore limités sur la nature de la désinformation. Pour le moment, l’IA générative permet essentiellement d’augmenter le nombre de contenus malveillants mais pas leur qualité (thanks @antibot4navalny for the screenshot !) Image
Feb 18 • 14 tweets • 4 min read
🧵 This week illustrated an important principle in the fight against #disinformation: information manipulation isn't just about inauthentic behaviours on social media; it's always part of a broader political context, and so is the answer to foreign interference & disinformation. For instance, Russian manipulations are fully integrated into the Kremlin's aggression against #Ukraine. This week showed the close link between the conflict's developments & the increase of Russian information manipulation campaigns against Europe. #FIMI
Feb 12 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
🧵1/ La France a procédé aujourd’hui à une nouvelle dénonciation publique d’un réseau russe de #désinformation ayant pour but de dénigrer l’#Ukraine et de promouvoir l’invasion russe de ce pays. Image 2/ A l’occasion de sa rencontre avec ses homologues 🇩🇪 et 🇵🇱, le Ministre @steph_sejourne a dénoncé un réseau de 193 sites internet de propagande russes visant l’#Ukraine et l’#Europe, notamment la #France, la #Pologne et l’#Allemagne.
Jul 9, 2021 • 17 tweets • 5 min read
(THREAD) Do you know the difference between 12 & 6+6? In Maths, there is no difference. In diplomacy, the difference is call a "constructive ambiguity". That's what just helped finding a compromise to keep the Bab el-Hawa cross border (XB) access for another year in NW #Syria. (If you have no idea what I'm talking about, here is some context delivered by @jomanaqaddour & yours truly in @ForeignPolicy) foreignpolicy.com/2021/07/01/syr…
Feb 1, 2021 • 23 tweets • 6 min read
[Thread] I have a great deal of respect for Amb. @fordrs58. And so I’m surprised by this article, with which I have profound disagreements. foreignaffairs.com/articles/turke… I don’t question the main assertion : Obviously US approach to Syria has been far from successful for the past ten years. But I disagree on the article’s diagnosis of this failure. It’s not that the US had a wrong strategy, rather that it didn’t have one with the right scope:
Nov 15, 2020 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
Pas mal de points très contestables dans cette tribune. Mais prenons les choses dans l’ordre: nouvelobs.com/idees/20201114… 1/ Tout d’abord, ce texte fait suite aux menaces de mort contre une journaliste. Je veux donc commencer par exprimer mon soutien à Judith Bernard face à des comportements inacceptables en démocratie. Aucune opinion ne justifie une menace de mort. Aucune.
Nov 12, 2020 • 12 tweets • 12 min read
As a lot of discussions already started on what to expect from #Biden within the #transatlantic relationship, let me list few ideas I laid out for @WashInstitute about what it could specifically mean in the #MiddleEast : (I’ll paste in this thread some excerpts of a longer paper on Europe-US cooperation in the #MiddleEast since the end of the Cold War, available here 👇)
Oct 31, 2020 • 16 tweets • 4 min read
In the context of recent terrorist attacks in France & after a week of outrage in Muslim countries over the Charlie Hebdo caricature, @EmmanuelMacron gave a long interview to @AJArabic today to counter misunderstandings and misinformation about his recent statements. Key points: 1/ Macron started by recalling that France had been attacked multiple times by extremists who were distorting the message of Islam and regretted that disinformation had been spread on social media about the situation.
Oct 28, 2020 • 23 tweets • 13 min read
THREAD – One of the many questions related to the #US election next week is the future of American engagement in the #MiddleEast. All actors in the region are already hedging their bets. But what about #Europe’s interest in the Middle East & North Africa ? Through 50+ interviews, I have looked back at the evolution of transatlantic cooperation in the MENA region since the end of the Cold War & tried in this @WashInstitute piece to assess the potential implications of the US election next week. washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysi…
Oct 27, 2020 • 15 tweets • 7 min read
I understand @ishaantharoor may not have chosen the title and that presenting this as a clash of two leaders’ ego is catchy. But this is missing major issues, at least four of them : 1/ How it started: there is a constant disregard in reports for the fact that FR-TUR tensions started and continue in Northeastern #Syria because Ankara’s milit interventions disturbed the fight c/ #ISIS. Why is it important ?
Oct 14, 2020 • 18 tweets • 9 min read
I have been in DC for more than a year now and I'm struck by the soul searching going on in the US expert community regarding what to do in the #MiddleEast. Numerous articles discuss a potential #US "withdrawal" from the Middle East. Here is a thread and a reading list: A first dimension of this debate is a 2016 article from Andrew J Bacevich, making a general case against interventionism and a call to "end endless wars". foreignaffairs.com/articles/unite…
Sep 11, 2020 • 23 tweets • 9 min read
This OpEd is misleading in so many ways...I’ll try to recall few elements : 1/ For a smarter read on the French-German division of labor, @JosephdeWeck explains why you need military solidarity with Greece AND mediation efforts with Turkey. internationalepolitik.de/en/pariscope-h…
Aug 6, 2020 • 11 tweets • 5 min read
Sérieux les gars, les clichés sur le mandat français et OSS117 c’est un peu court pour commenter la visite du PR au à #Beyrouth, et c’est quand même d’un grand manque de respect pour ce que vivent les Libanais depuis plusieurs mois, pour plusieurs raisons: Le niveau de destruction causée par l’explosion dans une zone éco essentielle et la profondeur de la crise politique et sociale libanaise devraient inviter à regarder ce que cette visite permet et ce qu’elle dit de la situation, et pas se regarder le nombril français.
Jun 24, 2020 • 13 tweets • 7 min read
(THREAD) 1/ In this article for @ForeignPolicy on #Syria, I discuss a complicated but immensely important topic: the weaponization of humanitarian assistance by the Syrian regime. Spoiler: things CAN be fixed. #SyriaConf2020 foreignpolicy.com/2020/06/24/how… 2/ Three paradoxes: i/UN/NGOs do great work assisting millions but accept regime hijacking of aid ii/EU&US provided $30bn of UN aid since 2011 but don't push back on aid diversion iii/UN/NGOs centralize ops in Damascus but don't fix the system & ignore a fragmented huma reality.
Mar 20, 2020 • 12 tweets • 8 min read
The Syrian regime asks the #US and the #EU to lift its economic sanctions to let him respond to the #coronavirus outbreak in #Syria. Let’s look at these sanctions to see what the regime wants to achieve with that. Spoiler: not assisting its population. syria.news/40b096fb-19032… 1/ Western sanctions against the Syrian regime are not preventing the regime to provide medical assistance to Syrians. There is no general embargo on #Syria. #US and #EU sanctions do NOT target the medical sector.
Mar 5, 2020 • 23 tweets • 10 min read
Details of the potential TUR-RUS deal on a ceasefire still unknown. Min. Lavrov told journalists about the set up of a “security corridor” in #Idlib #Syria
Jan 22, 2020 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
So some people might connect this with #Chirac’s famous “do you want me to go back to my plane?”. But let’s look at the specifics. First, for those who missed, here is what everybody is thinking about: a similar incident with Chirac in 1996 which profoundly and positively influenced his image in the Arab world for decades:
Jan 14, 2020 • 12 tweets • 13 min read
[Thread] #Europe just announced it would trigger the Dispute resolution mechanism #DRM of the #JCPOA. This is a big move but my guess is many people in #DC will wrongly assume this is an alignment to tougher US position on #Iran. /1 gov.uk/government/new… On the contrary, the #EU maintains its balanced position btw #US and #Iran in order to keep door open for real negotiations on nuke and beyond. Let’s see why: /2
Jan 6, 2020 • 5 tweets • 5 min read
[Thread on a thread] A lot of relevant questions listed by @jasmineelgamal, on which I would add few points : 1/ Beyond the decisions that are taken or not, the uncertainty created by #US messaging on #Syria before and now on #Iraq is making the work of US allies very complicated. Both military and civilian actions c/ #ISIS are paralized by uncertainty. Planning is simply impossible.
Jan 3, 2020 • 22 tweets • 8 min read
[Thread] There are so many angles to #Soleimani’s death that it will take time to grasp the full picture of it. But let’s try to look at a number of issues : 1/ The event : #Soleimani was one of the most important actors of today’s Middle East politics. His killing by the US is the most significant event in the region in recent years. Twitter tells you analysts are in shock : “we enter unchartered territories”.
Dec 3, 2019 • 13 tweets • 11 min read
[Thread] The press conference btw @realDonaldTrump and @EmmanuelMacron today has been fascinating at many levels. The #ISIS part was in particular an excellent summary of the state of play...1/ While many commentators focused on the “#braindead” comment on #NATO in @PedderSophie ’s itw for @theeconomist, most of them missed the topic Pres. #Macron wanted to address with it...2/ economist.com/europe/2019/11…