Thread by @atatimelikethis

What do we know about #covid19UK?
What should you do?

One thing growing faster than covid is keyboard experts.
There are no real experts, including me. But at least I'm an (ex) viral scientist. I give facts and sources.

Ignore those who don't.

A thread on "facts" and learning

🧠1/

Some GENERAL Advice.

No one knows anything for sure on #CoronaVirusUpdate
This is the quote from the W.H.O. when they politely admonished UKGov for killing us on bad science.

If someone says the "science changed" THAT is a lie. It means they ignored the dangers. BADLY.

It's an abuse of English to say science changed. Science changes all the time, that's the definition of science!

To theorise and prove!

So when we make decisions with science - for example, whether #herd_immunity is a thing, that's actually a theory, and we ask how likely it is

For a #coronavirus any virologist says, "PM, it's highly mutating, chances are even if you got herd immunity it won't last".

Which is virologist for, "You're nuts, probably".

The only way science then changes is proof of reinfection, which removes "probably"
That happened btw.

So if a PM stands on stage and claims science has changed, that can only mean

a) he didn't understand the science
b) he deliberately ignored the science
c) he has the wrong advice.
e) he's arrogant or stupid
f) he's a killer

Those don't inspire confidence. Esp if all are true.

One last bit of GENERAL advice.

This thread - from here - throw it away.
I'll say things, which unlike our PM I'll appropriately reference, based on likelihood.

That can change - not on fundamentals like whether a family of viruses will mutate, but on data eg. contagion

I'll compare #COVID2019 with Flu. The comparison is useful because you know flu. But Covid is much worse. Don't let comparison make you complacent.

If science isn't you use this WHO FAQ bit.ly/nastybug If that's a source see🐝
it's updated and easy to read.

For the more technical bit.ly/bugknows is spectacular. A source there is📊
All other sources get bit.ly links for easy reading. If you're concerned about clicking, you can check them at bitly.com

Sorry for caveats - we must show sources!

CONTAGION was the subject.
As you get more data you can be more sure.

TODAY🐝📊 we think #covid19 is about 2x as infectious as flu - anyone you gave flu to, you would give 2 people covid.

I and others have said 'like' flu in the past. Science didn't change. we got BETTER data

CONTAGION
Advice 1 - Handwashing - for 30secs before you touch your face - protect yourselfHoneybee

Advice 2 - social distancing bit.ly/standaway
It sounds weak. It's not. DO IT
Stand Away
STAND AWAY
@officialsting
pls rerelease Next to you - it'll help

MORTALITY is a tough one, our Government chose not to share info that is publically available. It's also the reason you must take CONTAGION seriously, and had we said it earlier - would people have suppressed the "like flu" crap?

This excellent VOX chart makes the point

MORTALITY
Much like contagion this changes with data, the latest is here 🐝bit.ly/latestWHO.
And given deaths are smaller than recoveries it's still hard to be sure.
Then when new places are infected (such as UK). If you count only deaths, but not cleared infections...

MORTALITY
as a% of infections, death rate goes up if you don't know mild infection rates - leading to this bit.ly/sloppyJour

My view - sloppy journalism. The WHO very carefully caveated they don't know the exact rate, and it's likely insufficient data that explains change.

MORTALITY
So I'm sticking with 2%, the long term Chinese average - and I'm telling you that I've made a choice, it's not a fact, and it might be wrong for the UK.

I'm comfortable with my choice because - back the Vox chart - WHO dies is more important.

MORTALITY
Somehow UKGov did understand high risk - so this message went out

I think most know it's worse for HR - though they may not know its' 10% for people in their 70s and 20% in their 80s.

That children die was also not understood. They survive better, but not completely

MORTALITY
Hence the importance of the tweets on contagion.

Knowing this, the next bit is what I'm doing in my family. I can't give you advice, you're not me, but I can tell you what I'm choosing given my circumstances.

Official UKGov "advice" is here bit.ly/uselessgov

MORTALITY

We started discussing this end Feb and decided what would happen if it got to this stage, for any high risks.
4 options.

1. actively get it before peak
2. get it in peak
3. get it after peak
4. hope to hold out forever/vaccine.

then we evaluated them.

MORTALITY
1. nuts - we know from china treatment improves over time. #CoronaParty? such a BAD idea

2. The peak is statistically what will happen if you do nothing.

3. After is if you manage to isolate

4. and I took and still take the view that talk of vaccines is premature.

MORTALITY

3. is the plan we adopted. I think it's the UKGov's plan, and I'm sure they have an insufficient explanation for their lack of pace.

Our older family members [over 60], less healthy [over 50] or chronic conditions [any age] have been in isolation for over a week now.

MORTALITY
Our plan is. Keep them contained until after peak.

When is that

The BEST projection we have on that is the IC projection, which says peak is around mid May but serious until July - which is why Schools are out until September.

BUT - read next tweet

THE ONLY THING YOU KNOW WITH 100% CERTAINTY ABOUT A MODEL IS IT IS DEFINITELY WRONG

MORTALITY
That rule applies to anyone with a history of making things up btw.

So, I gave you one projection. But that's the do-nothing plan. Here IC model some do something options.

Finally, UK flattens the peak - but...that pushes out the date (though not much the end)

MORTALITY

So we're prepared, if necessary, to keep them isolated for months. Yippee!
Isolated isn't stupid, but we leave stuff at door and walk

We're prepared, if necessary, to keep them isolated for months. But I've still not shared all the data

MORTALITY

Because it could come back.

I remember late feb getting angry with a muppet troll whos defence of UKGov was that no-one gets the flu twice.

Because when your favourite cricket team win, you can be certain your favourite football team will too...

MORTALITY
Imperial has that bit bit.ly/impsanddevils I haven't shared because I view it as speculative, worrying you unnecesaarily.

But look at that. I took a view, I disclosed my view and then shared data so you adults can choose yourselves!

One more issue to discuss

MORTALITY
The chart, or strains we don't know. Unknown unknowns.

Before I find myself quoting Donald Rumsfeld in full, know that's why it was reckless for UKGov to try to infect everyone and why they must resign before they make more reckless decisions.
We KNEW coronas mutate

MORTALITY
if you're low risk, you can see from Vox the danger is much less severe. But it's not 0 - it's still maybe 20x the flu.

But at the same time, it's not black death.
So once more, my rule for me (not advice) is wash hands and stand away. Not Spacesuit. 🐝

Ah yes. MASKS

MORTALITY

Opinion bit.ly/selfishegit
advice🐝

There are 2 uses for masks

1. You're a medical professional/carer treating someone
2. You have symptoms and are protecting care/medical.

If you have symptoms and are outside, your house is burning or you're a typhoid mary.

MORTALITY

I'm serious and intentionally harsh.
if you're symptomatic and risking everyone that is almost as evil as UKGov making it spread.

If you have one for public transport you're only slightly less evil. Read link. You stole it from a nurse, or your mum (think shortage)

MORTALITY

I'm going to take a bit of a break there. I plan to cover other topics soon on what we know about this, but if there's anything else you want to know, give me some feedback -

{except} one thing to ask is if you should wear a mask to prevent sneezing on others with flu...

...that probably is (normally) legit, we don't want a flu pandemic too.

But good luck finding one, and if you're sneezing on a bus people will lynch you right now. best stay home!.