Thread by @karamballes

This is incredibly disturbing.

Non peer reviewed study used to argue against social distancing and an early end to lockdown produced by company linked to the nudge unit which first suggested the herd immunity strategy.

Now being held up by RW commentators in UK and US

https://twitter.com/Michellestwitr/status/1243819738049974276

The media jumped on the "Oxford University' report, using the university's name to add a veneer of respectability that the public would trust.
Yet Oxford University had nothing to do with that report, it came out of a PR company.

When government says its following the science its worth noting that all the herd immunity as strategy came from the behavioral psychologists not the medical scientists.

There have been reports of differences of opinion at the centre of government.

3 weeks ago I had my worries

Remember initially the government planned to keep all schools open indefinitely, they even wrote powers to force schools to stay open into the #COVID19 bill.
If it wasn't for pressure from unions there would probably still be a lot more people in school.

Keep the economy going, Stay at home but still go to work, is the cause worse than the illness. A narrative is quickly developing taking up by the usual RW commentators and 'think tanks'
After initial complacency the alt right propaganda machine has got its act together

So just after lockdown this report appears, apparently with the Oxford Uni seal of approval.

Then we get a run of stories about how death rate predictions are going down, testing is coming, social distancing is working

We cant know this for at least another week or two.

I'm worried the UK strategy is too focused on short term economics, keeping the economy grinding on could well cost more in the long run

I'm also worried we are being 'nudged' to accept government strategy to support the economy rather than reduce the spread

My greatest concern is that there are many links between our gov and Trump, and the whole bubble of certain media and think tanks that surround them in symbiotic relationships.

Has our gov and its media operations helped facilitate Trumps call to open for Easter?

Expect more clamp downs on social distancing by police and enforcing #StayHomeSaveLives creating the impression of strict measures while continuing to expect everyone to work while outsourcing public safety to employers

Its the herd immunity middle ground

https://twitter.com/karamballes/status/1242765570044542976?s=19

We will be told we are #flatteningthecurve, we will be to some extent but will it be enough? The emergency hospitals will fill up all the ventilators will be in use, but for a while it will look like fast work,volunteers and field hospitals have flattened the curve

Already the predicted peak day has been moved forward, you'll hear talk of ending some measures after the Easter holidays, social distancing will remain but I wouldn't be surprised if they started suggesting getting more people back to work in April.

Problem is will the flattening the curve narrative match reality? I fear workplaces will continue to spread infection.A covid patient can require ventilation for weeks before recovering, since infection rate starts decreasing the death rate will still be rising.

Expect a lot of talk from government about bed capacity rather than ventilator numbers in the next few weeks.

Rather than a peak we may risk having a sustained plateau or even a second peak
They misjudged speed the infection spread, could do the same with flattening the curve

I could be wrong but

Too many workplaces not following social distancing
Too many vulnerable still being asked to come into work
Too many still going to work
Not enough PPE for keyworkers

Surely cant help the situation

So since writing this I've encountered an endless stream of people appearing in media all calling to reopen the economy.