Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #PT

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Talk by Hunt Alcott: Are High-Interest Loans Predatory? Theory and Evidence from Payday Lending

Paper: dropbox.com/s/ibavoq0pvr8p…
Slides: dropbox.com/s/007niykbznui…
Evaluating consumer protection policies

Many policies motivated by concerns that consumers don’t act in their own best interest or are “exploited” by firms

Must develop tools for:
• Measurement of alleged mistakes
• Behavioral welfare evaluation of proposed policies
Should we restrict high-interest lending?
Are borrowers acting in their own best interest?

Two basic questions:
• Do people anticipate repeat borrowing?
• Do borrowers perceive themselves to be time consistent?
Read 19 tweets
This 100 yo ad for a Jewish-owned clothing shop forced to close in '38 only recently came to light in Gelsenkirchen, Germany when the building next door was torn down. Debate raging how best to preserve it with construction plans already approved h/t Weiße Rose Gesellschaft
City records show the Alexander family fled Nazi Germany in 1938 after they were stripped of their assets & ended up in Brazil & the US
Here's more about the Alexander family in German & English with photos. Correction of #pt: the family did not manage to flee Germany until April 1939 gelsenzentrum.de/familie_jakob_…
Read 5 tweets
The intra-jihadi dynamic in #Idlib is rapidly intensifying, as #HTS is seeking to re-assert itself vis-a-vis (1) the opposition, (2) local civil society, (3) #Turkey & (4) increasingly exasperated #AlQaeda-leaning factions.

In doing so, it's revealing its multiple identities.
In recent weeks, we've seen escalatory events:

1. Khaled al-Aruri's death in a US drone strike

2. Formation of the #AlQaeda-leaning 'Stand Firm' ops room

3. #HTS arrest of:
- Sirajideen Makhtarov (Abu Saloh al-Uzbeki)
- Jamal Hassan Zayniya (Abu Malik al-Talli)
- Tauqir Sharif
Weeks ago, #HTS was attempting to [re-]build bridges with #Idlib civil society & now it's cracking down on divisive #AlQaeda loyalists & defecting critics.

Hard not to see the drivers involved here:

- Protect internal unity & regional primacy
- Undermine #AQ
- Message #Turkey
Read 33 tweets
Democrats open investigation into the replacement of @USDOT’s acting inspector general, concerned that the move was tied to an investigation into whether @SecElaineChao granted preferential treatment to @senatemajldr's state of Kentucky
washingtonpost.com/local/traffica…
"[Transportation Committee chairman] DeFazio also raised questions about Chao’s family’s shipping business and whether she followed her ethics agreement to divest stock in Vulcan Materials, both of which the House Oversight Committee is also investigating."

From Sept 2019:
"Stephen Akard showed up at the office on Monday morning and immediately assumed the boss’s role. Yet he is keeping his job as head of the @StateDept’s Office of Foreign Missions.

Adding the inspector general’s job to his duties essentially means he will be overseeing himself."
Read 36 tweets
This is a masterclass in research by @Elizrael & @Qussai_jukhadar -- I'm proud to be publishing it on @MiddleEastInst.

- "Ravaged by war, #Syria’s health care system is utterly unprepared for the #COVID19 pandemic."

mei.edu/publications/r…
@Elizrael @Qussai_jukhadar @MiddleEastInst #pt: While most health experts project terrible #COVID19 implications for #Syria, the @WHO insists a "minor outbreak" is more likely.

Why? @WHO's analysis is based on #Wuhan/#China data - which is absurd, given the contrasts in governance, security & healthcare capacity.
@Elizrael @Qussai_jukhadar @MiddleEastInst @WHO #pt: If equating #Syria's capacity to deal w. #COVID19 with #China's wasn't crazy enough, @WHO went further - predicting #Idlib would witness a 50% less infection rate than #Wuhan:

- 2,413 infections
- 121 ICU cases

Out of 4 million people, most in IDP camps w. no services.
Read 6 tweets
It concerns me the physicians in Canada who deal with #Endometriosis that have affiliations with pharma. Is anyone speaking out about this? Or is this just a situation where everyone turns a blind eye? Or is it the belief that somehow they...have no bias?
Do they think #Pts are ignorant to this bias? That we should all just pretend it’s not there?
Please read if you haven’t already:

“Clinical guidelines, which recommend treatments and can expand disease definitions, are often produced by professional associations and written by people with financial ties to interested companies” bmj.com/content/367/bm…
Read 8 tweets
A lot has changed in #Idlib/NW #Syria in recent days & much of the focus has been on hour-by-hour developments & less has been said on what it all means going forward.

Here's a lengthy thread laying out some of my thinking.
2 weeks ago, pro-#Assad forces were rampaging through #Idlib, overwhelming opposition defenses & swallowing up #Turkey's military observation posts almost at will.

The world stood virtually silent - or indifferent - as 1 million people were methodically & brutally displaced.
#pt: Amid the pro-#Assad advances, #Turkey ramped up arms supplies & intel sharing with #NLF/#SNA opposition proxies - in an attempt to bolster their offensive & defensive capabilities.

Then #TSK artillery support was added, along with a low-tempo campaign of covert UAV strikes.
Read 26 tweets
In 85 days, ~1 million people have fled their homes in #Idlib, #Syria.

60% are kids & 20% women.

They're now homeless, hemmed onto a shut #Turkey border. There are no tents left & little food. Kids are freezing to death.

Where the Hell is the world's attention? WAKE UP.
#pt: The #Idlib crisis is unprecedented, BUT not just for #Syria - this is the biggest humanitarian crisis in modern history AND it happened rapidly, in 2-3 months.

This isn't just "someone else's problem," it's a global one. If left untouched, the consequences WILL be global.
#pt: 1 million people, including 600,000 kids, with the clothes on their back & some blankets, if they're lucky. In the winter.

The @UN has run out of cross-border funds & #Syria is blocking supplies from elsewhere.

Meanwhile, #Russia is flattening hospitals, schools & markets.
Read 14 tweets
Tennis season is in full swing here in Australia so let’s check out #5injuryfacts specific to Tennis.

Thanks for following and commenting!

#tennis #ATPCup #BrisbaneTennis #ATPCup2020 #bartoldclinical
Read 8 tweets
Thread:

The best solution to #Iraq's problems is to support the Iraqi state to be fully sovereign & independent, and to prevent the influence of its neighbors, whether it is direct influence of by proxies. A weak Iraq cannot be helpful for the region or for the world. (1)
A strong #Iraq means foremost:

1. strong and functional democratic institutions.
2. credible measures of the rule of law.
3. respect of human rights & international law.
4. elimination of corruption.
5. state control of the use of force.

continued... (2)
#pt. A strong #Iraq means foremost:

6. energy independence.
7. strong economic opportunities & employment rates.
8. good governance and high measures of transparency.
9. complete overhaul of the education system.
10: investment in #Iraq's human resources.

continued... (3)
Read 9 tweets
Taking a brief foray back to Twitter to note the strategic significance of today's U.S. strikes on Kataib #Hezbollah in #Syria & #Iraq.

19 dead (incl. 3 #IRGC) & 35+ wounded is a major response by the U.S. - alike #Israel's retaliatory modus operandi - BUT note: U.S is exposed.
#pt: The U.S. government apparatus (esp. IC) has known for a long time - and feared - this scenario, whereby the death of an American would necessitate a serious response, which in turn would leave U.S. personnel in #Syria & especially #Iraq exposed to #IRGC counter-retaliation.
#pt: #IRGC-linked rocket attacks in #Iraq are hardly new, but the death of an American was.

Likewise, the death of 19+ KH fighters is new & a marked walk up the escalation ladder.

#Iran holds the cards now & re-escalation seems likely -- leaving #Trump in a position he fears.
Read 12 tweets
1/ Ok, as I love to wander through the most deep places, I want to give it a go. Because #Qanon starts to make more sense.

2/ we know the Schumann resonances influences our brain in some way.

And this peak we saw, isn't that a cycle that keeps returning? Could it be why civilications vanished?
3/ Than you have to know it's coming. Maya?

I don't know, but if we go to Q we also go to Q Clearance - highest sec clearance possible. Area 51? Or Schumann Resonance?
Read 32 tweets
BREAKING - reports of a (US?) helicopter-borne raid on a convoy of Huras al-Din (#AlQaeda in #Syria) leaders traveling near Barisha in #Idlib.

Locals say as many as 6 choppers involved - gave chase to convoy, 2 landed & assaulted vehicles. Possibly took bodies or evidence away.
#pt: Barisha is ~3-4km from the #Turkey border. It's in long-time #AlQaeda territory, spanning between Al-Dana-Sarmada-Salqin.

As I recall, a helicopter-borne raid on AQ in NW #Syria has never happened - this would suggest a very high-level target.
#pt: In more recent years, the Turkistan Islamic Party (#TIP) has probably been the most significant authority in the Barisha region (stretching NE to Jisr al-Shughour).

Unverified reports have claimed 1 #TIP fatality, in what looks like a series of successive clashes. #Idlib
Read 33 tweets
Using an #America-centric lens to criticize #Turkey for making national security judgements based on a #Turkey-centric lens is analytically dubious.

Whether we like it or not, #Turkey has fought a 40-year #PKK insurgency & sees the #PKK as its No.1 national security threat.
#pt: And FWIW, using Aldar Khalil as the sole source to claim that the #PYD-#PKK relationship is solely defined by "intellectual lineage" & 'sympathy with one another's political goals' is analytically disingenuous.

Perhaps instead read the #PYD itself:

#pt: If the #PYD's very own website (deleted - but archived - after teaming up with the U.S. military in 2014) wasn't enough, take the public assessments of U.S. government's dedicated National CounterTerrorism Center (part of the Intelligence Community):

Read 7 tweets
🚜🚜🚜🚜🚜🚜🚜🔊🔊🔊
☑️ Rijden over de snelweg
☑️ Rijden over de vluchtstrook
☑️ Onnodig geluid produceren
☑️ Openlijk geweld
☑️ Vandalisme
Het telt aardig op zo, qua boetes, overtredingen en strafbare feiten. #boerenprotesten
🚜🚜🚜🚜🚜🚜🚜🔊🔊🔊 🎆🎇🚀

We tellen gewoon door:
☑️ Vuurwerk afsteken.

🚜🚜🚜🚜🚜🚜🚜🔊🔊🔊🎇🎆🚀👮‍♂️
We tellen door:
☑️Rijden over de snelweg
☑️Rijden over de vluchtstrook
☑️Onnodig geluid produceren
☑️Openlijk geweld
☑️Vandalisme
☑️Vuurwerk afsteken.
☑️Verbod negeren / afspraken met @Politie schenden
nos.nl/artikel/230635… #boerenprotest
Read 45 tweets
That “1000” is, roughly, the entire US presence in #Syria.

What does “northern #Syria” mean? Are they being drawn down to Deir ez Zour? Are we seeing an Arab-focused last chance strategy in slow formation?
The U.S. withdrawal from #Syria is underway, as directed overnight by #Trump & supported by @DeptofDefense.

As I wrote a few days ago, opening the doors to #Turkey put the writing on the wall.

- "Making America Great Again” has never sounded so vapid."

mei.edu/blog/trump-pav…
@DeptofDefense HUGE developments in north #Syria, as the #SDF agrees a de facto surrender deal w. the #Assad regime, in return for a #Russia-backed #SAA move to block #Turkey's advances.

Looks like #Manbij, #Kobani, #Qamishli & possibly #Raqqa are all included in this agreement.

#SAA moving.
Read 10 tweets
1/ Dag 4 Turkse operatie, dag 3 dat ik in NO-Syrie ben.

Syrie's minderheden aan Turkse grens in doodsangst. Ik bezocht cluster van Christelijke, Koerdische en Yazidi dorpen nabij Qamishli in N-Syrie. Mensen zitten angstig thuis te wachten op wat komen gaat, Turkse tanks op 3km.
2/ Panoramafoto die ik maakte in Assyrisch dorpje Maharkan in N-Syrie, geeft redelijk beeld hoe dichtbij de Turkse grens is. Rechts de kerk van het dorpje (14 huizen, 62 inwoners), links op de achtergrond de Turkse grensmuur, op heuvel staan Turkse militaire voertuigen.
3/ Bezocht ook Assyrisch gehucht, Khuwaytilah Tahtani, vlakbij grens Turkije. Was nog behoorlijk gedoe, want Turkse leger beschoot net de weg. Uiteindelijk reed 'n aardige Arabische gozer me achterop z'n brommer naar het dorpje. Bewoners bang maar trots lieten ze hun kerkje zien.
Read 16 tweets
@martingeddes Not only the tales about Troy and Odysseus but also those about the garden of Eden, Noah and Moses are situated in or near The Netherlands.
translate.google.com/translate?sl=n…
archive.is/f8zit
facebook.com/events/5929856…
@martingeddes (Continued #pt) More about Eelco de Boer's theory on the geography of the works of Homer and the Bible.
@martingeddes According to Saxon legends, Noah stranded with his ark on the cliffs of the Isterberg, which must have been on the North Sea at that time. It is now in Germany, about 5 km east of the border with The Netherlands.
translate.google.com/translate?hl=&…
Read 7 tweets
Trump's proposed concessions to Turkey:
–$100 billion trade deal
–a solution to a ban on Turkey’s contributions to & purchases of the F-35
–a White House visit

In return, US asked for a safe zone in NE Syria.

Erdoğan refused, and Trump capitulated.
washingtonpost.com/world/middle_e…
#pt This is what the National Security Council official who heard the call meant when he said “Trump was rolled … he was definitely out-negotiated" by Erdoğan ... The president has no spine." newsweek.com/exclusive-offi…
French President @EmmanuelMacron met on Tuesday with the spokeswoman for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (#SDF), to express #France's solidarity with them in their fight against ISIS #twitterkurds reuters.com/article/us-syr…
Read 5 tweets
I've made my thoughts clear on how *bad* #Trump's decisions have been for #Syria policy (& the #SDF).

But let's just get something straight:

- The U.S. knowingly decided to ally with a designated terrorist organization (the #PYD/#YPG) in 2014 to fight #ISIS in #Kobani & beyond.
#pt: The State Dept, NCTC & CIA all viewed the #PYD as the #PKK's #Syria affiliate in 2013 -- that's in public documents.

That label was [quietly] removed in 2014.

In #Turkey - a #NATO state, whether we like it or not - the #PKK is viewed as *the* existential security threat.
#pt: #Turkey was complicit in terrible #Syria border control & ties to #Nusra. No doubt.

But put that aside for minute:

Imagine if a foreign state brought #ISIS to #Mexico & armed it to fight cartels, while assuring #Washington: "don't worry, they're only interested in Mexico."
Read 8 tweets
Just spoke to a friend in #Najaf. Protesters heading to the old city (shrine) and airport. Governorate building has been stormed, Hikma and Dawa Party offices attacked. Gunfire can be heared as security forces attempt to disperse the crowds. Chaotic, frightening situation. #Iraq
There is no doubt that the vast majority of peaceful protesters have legitimate grievances against government corruption but the chaos unfolding on the streets in Baghdad and the South also provides opportunities for those with far more sinister agendas to exploit. #IraqProtests
Snr gov't official I spoke to questioned why protesters would attack lighting grids in central Baghdad and make it even harder for the security forces to see what's going on in the dark. When maintenance crews are dispatched to restore power, they are attacked too. #IraqProtests
Read 26 tweets
Isnt it possible some of the 5 might want to testify? like the Ambassador removed from post early because Giuliani & Don Jr smeared her?
and at least one of the five, Kurt Volker, no longer works for the US government. I am not sure what Amb. Yovanovich’s status is
What guidance/advice does the committee give the individuals asked to testify, now that Pompeo pressuring them not to appear?
Read 4 tweets
The #Abqaiq oil processing facility has been targeted multiple times in the past, from Al Qaida in 2006 to foiled plot in May 2019 and now with #drones. Strikes against oil infrastructure can have massive economic and #environmental consequences.
#PT at the #Abqaiq processing facility, 6.8 million barrels of crude oil are processed on a daily basis. Saudis claim the fire is now under control. The base is at least 1000km away from Houthi controlled area, so their likely #drone of choice is the UAV-X
Massive smoke plume visible with @NASAEarth view on September 14, 2019 coming from the #Abqaiq oil processing facility and nearby locations in #SaudiArabia that was hit by Houthis with #drones
Read 4 tweets
Trump admin spending bizarre amount of bandwidth on a ship of oil. It seems ineffective—maybe not meant effective?
not meant *to be* effective #pt
Maybe meant to distract (themselves?) from fact Iran behavior gotten worse on every front in response to their policy?
Read 3 tweets

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