#Italy can cut its #CO2 emissions by up to 97% and this can lead to *lower* #energy prices.
Hard to believe? Check out our new paper in #RSER: authors.elsevier.com/a/1dyo14s9Hw2F…
⚡️HIGHLIGHTS BELOW👇
#COP26 #ClimateCrisis #energytwitter
@ImperialBiz @EnergyFuturesIC @CogImperial
#EnergyScope is an #optimization model looking at the whole-energy system, including #electricity, #heating and #transport.
We present a new version of the model and propose it to devise deep #decarbonization scenarios for #Italy, like this one!
#ORMS #DataScience
How does a 97% decarbonized Italy look like?
[left] #renewableenergy share in primary energy supply increases from 16% in 2015 to 83% in 2050.
[right] sector-coupling: increased #electricity penetration in #heating, #transportation and #hydrogen production.
What about the power sector? ⚡️
The #electricity sector increases in size (+60% compared to 2015), supplied mainly by #renewables (85% of total power production)
💰 The levelized cost of #electricity is 30% *lower* in the decarbonized scenario compared to today.
What if things go wrong? 🧐
#Uncertainty analysis: we assess the feasibility of Italy’s decarbonisation with respect to uncertainties in the deployment of #CCS and #renewables. Results show that 79%-97% #CO2 emission reduction targets are attainable.
And for the #energy #modelers out there - we review 88 deep decarbonisation studies and discuss advantages/disadvantages of our proposed approach vs other models.
Model and data available here:
zenodo.org/record/5482657
@openmod #freethemodels #openscience
Take-away messages:
▶️ #energyscope is a whole-energy system model for #decarbonization studies.
▶️ 79-97% #CO2 emission reduction for #Italy can be feasible and cost-effective.
▶️ It’s not about THE optimal scenario - #opensource models serve as a basis for discussion.
Big thanks to my co-author Marcello Borasio for 2 years of hard work, and to the @snsf_ch for supporting this research!
Please help us share this work if you find it relevant!
@ImperialChemEng @Grantham_IC @FMarech @CEP_Lab @EPSE_ETH @daniel_huppmann @frances16906267
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