As we kickoff 23', here's a thread w/ the latest data 🏦💵🖨 on #StockMarket liquidity, credit, & financial conditions within the broader markets... 🧵/👇🏼
📊 h/t @crossbordercap
#FederalReserve #interestrates #stockmarket #Crypto #GDP $DXY $TLT $SPY $ES $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM
1/🧵 One of the indicators we watch is the @federalreserve 'Net Liquidity' as this tracks the markets very closely....
📊 h/t @fkronawitter1
#FederalReserve #interestrates #stockmarket #Crypto #GDP $DXY $TLT $SPY $ES $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM
2/🧵 In addition to this, investors also have to look past the @federalreserve as global Central Banks 🏦 have joined in QT against the #inflation backdrop...
📊 h/t @LanceRoberts @ISABELNET_SA @topdowncharts @insidefinance
3/🧵 Here is the latest 🇺🇸 'Financial Conditions Index', which has clearly contracted in 22'...
📊 h/t @WallStJesus @TDAmeritrade @markets @business
#FederalReserve #interestrates #stockmarket #Crypto #GDP $DXY $TLT $SPY $ES $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM
4/🧵 Keep in mind that it's not a linear pathway (QT) either as liquidity is still influencing markets...
📊 h/t @crossbordercap #FederalReserve #interestrates #stockmarket #Crypto $SPY $ES $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM
5/🧵 As we move into 23', one thing to keep an eye on is how decreasing liquidity affects market movements...
📊 h/t @LanceRoberts @JPMorganAM @ISABELNET_SA #FederalReserve #interestrates #stockmarket #Crypto $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM
6/🧵 Something else to consider is how passive investing is affecting market liquidity. Should there be a further 📉, would this exacerbate the move?
h/t @SethCL #FederalReserve #interestrates #stockmarket #Crypto $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM
7/🧵 What do you think of @AndreasSteno's 🎯 of $3,500 $SPX, based on @federalreserve liquidity projections?
#FederalReserve #interestrates #stockmarket #Crypto $SPY $QQQ $DIA $IWM #stocks
8/🧵 As @fkronawitter1 points out, it's important to see the whole picture of liquidity in the financial system...🏦💵
#FederalReserve #interestrates #stockmarket #Crypto $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT #stocks
9/🧵 Will banks tighten their lending standards in 23' as the economy potentially weakens? 🏦💵 h/t @fkronawitter1
#FederalReserve #interestrates #stockmarket #Crypto $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT #stocks $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $MA $V $GS
10/🧵 Something to keep an eye on in 23' is the trajectory of bankruptcy 📑, specifically in #smallbusiness... 📊 h/t @TaviCosta
#FederalReserve #interestrates #stockmarket #recession $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $MA $V $GS
11/🧵 Also, watch high-yield/junk bond spreads as #interestrates take their toll on the markets & overall economic growth... 📊 h/t @WallStJesus
#FederalReserve #stockmarket $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT #stocks $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $MA $V $GS
12/🧵 As @joosteninvestor highlights, interesting divergence in the #StockMarket & bonds vs. contracting 🏦 lending... h/t @SoberLook
#FederalReserve $SPY $SPX $QQQ $NQ $DIA $DJIA $IWM $RUT #stocks $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $MA $V $GS $TLT $HYG
13/🧵 Will the @federalreserve & other 🏦 be able to pull off balance sheet reductions w/o breaking financial markets? h/t @DisruptorStocks @MorganStanley
#FederalReserve $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM #stocks $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $MA $V $GS $TLT $HYG $MS
14/🧵 How will the @federalreserve #interestrates ROC (Rate of Change) affect markets in 23'?😳 h/t @lord_fed
#FederalReserve $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM #stocks $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $MA $V $GS $TLT $HYG $MS
15/🧵 @RaoulGMI makes an interesting observation that global liquidity (could) be on the verge of a turn back up... 🏦💵📈
#FederalReserve $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM #stocks $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $MA $V $GS $TLT $HYG $MS
16/🧵 If you are interested in watching 🏦 lending, here's a 📊 to watch in 23' via the @federalreserve FRED database... h/t @LynAldenContact
#FederalReserve #interestrates $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM #stocks $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $MA $V $GS $TLT $HYG $MS
17/🧵Global Credit Impulse back to GFC levels... 🚨🏦 h/t @MacroAlf
#FederalReserve #interestrates #recession $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM #stocks $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $MA $V $GS $TLT $HYG $MS
18/🧵 Very important to keep in mind, as highlighted by @MichaelKantro is the LAG that the @federalreserve 🏦policies have on markets...
#FederalReserve #interestrates #recession $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $MA $V $GS $TLT $HYG $MS
19/🧵 Increasing credit spreads a sign of health, or stress in financial markets? 🏦⚠️
📊 h/t @the_red_deer @BankofAmerica
#FederalReserve #interestrates #recession $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $MA $V $GS $TLT $HYG $MS
20/🧵Banks tightening lending standards a sign of slowdown/stress in the system? 🏦🚫💳
📊h/t @WallStJesus @JPMorganAM @jpmorgan
#FederalReserve #interestrates #recession $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $MA $V $GS $TLT $HYG $MS
21/🧵 @warrenbachman1 highlights a great observation: $SPX vs. @federalreserve Net Liquidity — See any correlation? 🧐📉
#FederalReserve #interestrates #recession $SPY $QQQ $DIA $IWM $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $MA $V $GS $TLT $HYG $MS #stocks
22/🧵 Same correlation: $SPX vs. @federalreserve Net Liquidity 🔮💸
📊 h/t @Lvieweconomics
#FederalReserve #interestrates #recession $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM $JPM $BAC $WFC $AXP $MA $V $GS $TLT $HYG $MS #stocks
23/🧵 h/t @AndreasSteno for the thread on @federalreserve 'Net Liquidity' — Covering the RRP, TGA, & #federalreserve Balance Sheet & how they affect the financial markets...
#stockmarket #interestrates #recession #stocks #bonds $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM
24/🧵 If you're interested in learning more about what could happen in the 23' Liquidity Cycle 🏦💵🛟— great @Twitter Space w/ @profplum99 @crossbordercap & @EMcArdleInvest...
#stockmarket #interestrates #recession #bonds $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM
25/🧵 Latest update on "Financial Conditions" from @MichaelMOTTCM... 💵📉
#stockmarket #interestrates #recession #bonds $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM @Bloomberg @markets @economics
26/🧵 Pairing that with the above, the @ChicagoFed Financial Conditions signals an opposite in conditions... 💵📈 h/t @MichaelMOTTCM
#stockmarket #interestrates #recession #bonds $SPY $SPX $QQQ $DIA $IWM @Bloomberg @markets @economics
27/🧵 Latest @ChicagoFed National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI)📊...
#StockMarket #bonds $DXY $TLT #FederalReserve $SPY $SPX #interestrates
28/🧵 Update on @federalreserve "Net Liquidity" readings from @SophiaKnowledge...
#StockMarket #bonds $DXY $TLT #FederalReserve $SPY $SPX #interestrates
29/🧵 Something to keep an eye on is the @federalreserve QT (Rate of Change). Good note by @TXMCtrades... 🏦📉
#StockMarket #bonds $DXY $TLT #FederalReserve $SPY $SPX #interestrates
30/🧵 @federalreserve REPO 💸👀
📊h/t @themacrotweet
#StockMarket #bonds $DXY $TLT #FederalReserve $SPY $SPX #interestrates
31/🧵 @federalreserve Balance Sheet... 🏦📉
📊h/t @biancoresearch
#StockMarket #bonds $DXY $TLT #FederalReserve $SPY $SPX #interestrates $HYG
32/🧵 @crossbordercap @FedGuy12 @FinancialTimes @rbrtrmstrng
#StockMarket #bonds $DXY $TLT #FederalReserve $SPY $SPX #interestrates $HYG
33/🧵 Financial Conditions vs. 30-Year Mortgage 🏡📉 📈
📊h/t @DisruptorStocks
#FederalReserve #interestrates #realestate #mortgage
33/🧵 "We assume the Fed will continue to favor hawkish communication to offset the easing of financial conditions." 🇺🇸🏦💵📉
📊h/t @GregDaco @EY_Parthenon
#FederalReserve #netliquidity #StockMarket #bonds #interestrates
34/🧵 "While disinflation is well underway, #inflation remains historically elevated, & the current easing of financial conditions is challenging the #FederalReserve's narrative that it will continue raising the federal funds rate above 5%."
📊h/t @GregDaco @EY_Parthenon
35/🧵 🇺🇸 Financial Conditions vs. #recession
📊h/t @BlacklionCTA #Bonds #StockMarket #FederalReserve #interestrates
36/🧵 @Bloomberg🇺🇸 Financial Conditions vs. 30yr Fixed-Rate Mortgage 💵🏠
📊h/t @DisruptorStocks
#Bonds #StockMarket #FederalReserve #interestrates #realestate #realtor #mortgagerates
37🧵 Financial Conditions Index (easing) 💵📈 — HINT: This gives the @federalreserve room to continue "higher for longer"...
📊h/t @WallStJesus @GoldmanSachs $GS
#Bonds #StockMarket #FederalReserve #interestrates #realestate $SPY $SPX $DJIA $DIA $QQQ $NQ $RUT $IWM
38/🧵 @Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index (easing) 💵📈 ANOTHER HINT: This gives the @federalreserve room to continue "higher for longer"...
📊h/t @KathyJones
#Bonds #StockMarket #FederalReserve #interestrates #realestate $SPY $SPX $DJIA $DIA $QQQ $NQ $RUT $IWM
39/🧵 Latest @ChicagoFed "Adjusted National Financial Conditions Index" (ANFCI) 📊💵
#Bonds #StockMarket #FederalReserve #interestrates #realestate $SPY $SPX $DJIA $DIA $QQQ $NQ $RUT $IWM
40/🧵 @Barclays 🇺🇸 Financial Conditions Index, showing "Conditions Tighter than Normal"... ⚠️📈
#Bonds #StockMarket #FederalReserve #interestrates #realestate $SPY $SPX $DJIA $DIA $QQQ $NQ $RUT $IWM
41/🧵 With M2 leading #inflation lower, can investors expect @federalreserve shift in monetary policy that (could) affect overall liquidity? 🏦💵🤔
📊h/t @true_insights_ @jsblokland
#centralbanks #federalreserve #interestrates #monetaryPolicy #bonds #stocks
@federalreserve @true_insights_ @jsblokland 42/🧵 Great chart from @jsblokland @true_insights_ highlighting the change in @federalreserve "Net Liquidity" vs. MSCI World Index — interesting correlations to keep a close eye on... 📈🏦📉
#centralbanks #federalreserve #interestrates #monetaryPolicy #bonds #stocks $SPY $SPX
43/🧵 "High-yield junk bond spreads reflect an economy that is avoiding #recession. But almost all the leading indicators of recession are flashing 🚨 (PMI surveys, deeply inverted yield curve, LEI's, M2 💵 growth)." ⚠️ @jennablan
📊h/t @GregObenshain
#bonds #interestrates
44/🧵 "ICE @BankofAmerica US 🇺🇸High Yield Index Options-Adjusted Spread" w/in the mid-range of ⚠️ , w/ a key level to watch around 4.20... 🎯
#bonds #stockmarket #stocks #macro #earnings
45/🧵 Are the credit markets under-estimating the potential for a #recession?
h/t📊 @Mayhem4Markets @Bloomberg @JPMorganAM
#bonds #stockmarket #stocks #macro #earnings $HYG $TLT $HYGH $HYGW
46/🧵 Just a friendly reminder headed into the rest of 23'...
"Percent of bonds maturing in less than or equal to 1yr = (approx. 70%)." 🏦⏰⏳
📊h/t @FrancoisTrahan @iv_technicals
#bonds #stockmarket #stocks #macro #earnings $HYG $TLT $HYGH $HYGW
47/🧵 #bond fund flows... 💵📈
📊h/t @ISABELNET_SA @BankofAmerica
#bonds #stockmarket #stocks #macro #earnings $HYG $TLT $HYGH $HYGW
48/🧵 #bond fund flows (cont'd)... 💵📈
📊h/t @ISABELNET_SA @BankofAmerica
#bonds #stockmarket #stocks #macro #earnings $HYG $TLT $HYGH $HYGW
49/🧵 "Going down to almost the bottom of the bond market food chain is the 'High Yield' segment. 2022 was the SECOND WORST year since 1985."
📊h/t @KatusaResearch
#bonds #stockmarket #stocks #macro #earnings $HYG $TLT $HYGH $HYGW
50/🧵 "Discover see credit card delinquencies hitting 3.5-3.9% in 2023 (2011 levels), yet high yield sees no problems..."
📊h/t @PPGMacro @Bloomberg
#bonds #stockmarket #stocks #macro #earnings $HYG $TLT $HYGH $HYGW $DFS $V $MA $AXP
51/🧵 "Financial conditions have eased significantly over the last 3mo. In the last 20yr, the only two periods of time where conditions loosened further were toward the end of the 08'-09' #recession & mid-20'."
📊h/t @GoldmanSachs $GS @LizYoungStrat #macro #StockMarket #bonds
52/🧵 "🇺🇸 financial conditions loosened substantially recently & are now back where they were back in Feb. 2022, when the @federalreserve FFR was at 0%."
📊h/t @f_wintersberger #macro #economy #FederalReserve #interestrates
53/🧵 Latest readings from @ChicagoFed show a further easing in their "Financial Conditions Index"...
#FOMC #macro #economy #FederalReserve #interestrates #bonds #StockMarket
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