Thread by @ergun_unutmaz

#ChartStorm: 1/17
🗓️ March Performance of ...

🇺🇸 #SPX #IXIC #DJI 🇯🇵 #NI225 🇩🇪 #DAX 🇹🇷 #XU100

#DXY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #CADUSD #JPYUSD #TRYUSD

#TreasuryBills #GovernmentBonds #Yields

2) Here I'll cover 6 stock market indices in 4 countries:

In order to compare the relative performances, I've chosen a pre-pandemic basis, which is 31/12/2019 closing values.

As Nasdaq, S&P500 and DJI are denominated in US dollars, but the others not, returns are misleading.

3) I have adjusted the data, and now all are denominated in US dollars.

#BIST returns are still amazing with its 30.4%, but not striking as above. Besides it is positive only after Sep'22. #Nasdaq is leading with 36.2% return. #Nikkei225 is the only index below pandemic level.

4) So what is behind these developments?

Well, there are many facts for each market, but instead of getting that discussion I will just add one more dimension to the graphs. Here are currencies and their paths from the same base:

#DXY #EURUSD #GBPUSD #CADUSD #JPYUSD #TRYUSD

5) When it comes to returns compared to previous month, the outlook is as following.

#IXIC is wide open winner with 6.7% return.
#DAX follows with 4.3% return and other indices recorded gains between 1.9% and 3.5%.

#XU100 had a deep loss in US dollar terms with 9.3% drop.

6) If we integrate the #Inflation in the process the picture is as following in the #USA.

π (#Headline): YoY 6.0%
π (#Core): YoY 5.5%

#StockMarketReturns (MoM)

7) #Inflation in #Germany:

π (#Headline): YoY 8.7%
π (#Core): YoY 5.7%

#StockMarketReturns (MoM)

8) #Inflation in #Turkey:

π (#Headline): YoY 55.18%
π (#Core): YoY 55.16%

#StockMarketReturns (MoM)

9) Here is the #USDTRY (yellow, right axis) and #XU100 (BIST: left axis) index in turquoise.

Inflation and exchange rate have a major role in returns. Therefore, global investing is more challenging than many people think.

10) Let me conclude with #yields and #BondSpreads as a #recession indicator.

US 3 month Treasury Bill Yields
US 2 Year Government Bond Yields
US 10 Year Government Bond Yields

and YoY Inflation

11) Here are the bond spreads and real yields for US.

12) #Germany

3 month Treasury Bill Yields
2 Year Government Bond Yields
10 Year Government Bond Yields

and YoY Inflation

13) ... Bond spreads and real yield approximation for ST

14) #UnitedKingdom

3 month Treasury Bill Yields
2 Year Government Bond Yields
10 Year Government Bond Yields

and YoY Inflation

15) ... Bond spreads and real yield ST approximation.

16) #Türkiye

3 month Treasury Bill Yields
2 Year Government Bond Yields
10 Year Government Bond Yields

and YoY Inflation

17) ... Bond spreads and real yield approximation.