Thread by @pmdfoster

Interesting how the #Brexit weather has changed in Brussels.

U.K. preparing to publish a customs paper which essentially lays out idea of all-U.K. customs union for the temporary backstop.

Understand won’t tackle alignment or ECJ etc.

And yet... /1

Per senior EU source who is not usually too charitable towards bungling Brits: “we are in the mood of trying to welcome the UK customs paper as much as we can" /2

It’s not two weeks since everyone was daggers drawn over Galileo and U.K. demands for its billion back. /3

Does this apparent softening portend anything?

Well, it seems like all that Irish talk of a crisis in June if no Irish backstop is agreed is now past. There will be no Agreement on backstop in June.

So we muddle on into summer and let the ticking clock exert pressure. /4

Optimistic Brits will wonder if EU side has started to realise that kicking Brits (while easy and satisfying) isn’t actually route to deal all sides need.

Perhaps Italy, Eurozone stalemate and Trumpian trade wars have dampened appetite for carnage? /5

Or perhaps not! Macron and Merkel could look at feeble U.K. attempts to move the ball and blow up at June EUCO. But doesn’t feel like that.

Maybe just let the Brits stew...but even then, at some point have to know where we are on backstop, or there’s no WA. /6

So for now a weary truce as U.K. pub CU backstop paper, and EU hope it’s a next baby step to accepting alignment in goods (?agri) + relevant ECJ...recalling that Barnier slide showing just how much (70+%) of checks aren’t covered by a CU.

Tippy-toe Brexit. /ENDS