Interesting bits from the Prime Minister’s #Brexit letter …bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…. The absolute primacy of ending free movement as the driver of the Referendum result- perhaps the one Leave argument she personally buys..
But ending FOM for EU citizens also removes it from UK citizens. PM does not mention that.
Second the stress on the benefits of ending vast annual payments.. But she knows that direct savings will not be huge as we take over programmes (CAP, replacement structural funds), incur costs of setting up own agencies
and easily swamped if economic effect slightly negative. see @instituteforgov analysis of economics instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/u…
@instituteforgov We’ll have to watch what the HMG economic assessment says on this later in the week.
@instituteforgov Outside the CAP and CFP. Hopefully we can do better than the CAP – but farmers will find Treasury champing at the bit for agricultural support.
@instituteforgov How far outside the CFP it feels will depend on what we can negotiate in July 2020. Battle postponed but far from won.
@instituteforgov Taking back control of our laws… If we stay aligned – voluntarily or compulsorily – to EU law we will still have to stay in line with ECJ decisions – without a UK judge on the Court. And the withdrawal agreement has to take precedence over domestic law.
@instituteforgov The UK hasn’t in any case had a bad record at the ECJ – and we benefit from it enforcing rules on others. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/w…
@instituteforgov Deal protects EU citizens here – and UK citizens in EU. But former very nervous about how @UKHomeoffice will act in difficult cases – and not chuffed about applying and paying to maintain a right. Latter have no guarantees they can move elsewhere in EU.
@instituteforgov @ukhomeoffice Trade will flow easily.. but not frictionlessly instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/f…– unless we stay in the Single market and customs union long-term.. in which case we can’t have the independent trade policy.
@instituteforgov @ukhomeoffice Security cooperation will continue – but not necessarily as now. Some difficult arguments to come on UK access to databases. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/n…
@instituteforgov @ukhomeoffice No hard border in Northern Ireland - - yes while the backstop operates. But backstop free future still very unclear. PM always says this would only be needed for a short time, if ever. No clear way to that.
@instituteforgov @ukhomeoffice We will be able to conclude trade agreements with fast growing economies. EU is trying to get in ahead of us in many of those markets... on a pre-#brexit fast track. Macron meets the koala...
@instituteforgov @ukhomeoffice If we are still in a customs territory we will have to concede access with no reciprocal guarantee. Why Turkey hates their deal.
@instituteforgov @ukhomeoffice “With Brexit settled” – sorry PM,. This was the start and the easy part. The tough negotiations are to come - in a fraction of the time it usually takes the EU to conclude trade agreements.
@instituteforgov @ukhomeoffice She’s making the best of what we called BABNEED - best available brexit not entailing excessive damage instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/best-avai…
@instituteforgov @ukhomeoffice And here is full @instituteforgov guide to the Political declaration. instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/fra…
@instituteforgov @ukhomeoffice here's the possible future landing zone instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
@instituteforgov @ukhomeoffice one of our scenarios (no deal with Brussels off the table) - now its in Parliament........ our guide to the choreography instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/v…
@instituteforgov @ukhomeoffice the meaningful vote instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/par… and ways of breaking the deadlock instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/…
