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David Leonhardt @DLeonhardt
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
1. Lots of pushback on the meaning of these numbers, which I RT'd. People are saying they're not meaningful for two reasons: a) They're not near the final vote count, because California counts slowly; and b) Democratic vote share tends to rise from primary to general.
2. But it's unclear how much more positive the final vote count will be for Dems. @SteveKornacki says he's pursuing this (and he's worth following). @PatrickRuffini says Dem vote share may tend to rise more as general-election votes are count and not so much for primary votes.
3. Time will tell, as the great journalistic cliche holds.
4. The second point seems undeniably true, though: In recent Calif. elections, the Democratic share in general-election has been larger than in the primary. That is, a larger share of Rs show up for primaries than for Ds.
5. So Dems don't need to above 50 in the primary vote share in Calif. to feel good about the general. High 40s would be enough, based on historical averages. [End.]
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