1. The latest Middle East regional tour by Jared Kushner & Jason Greenblatt gives rise to rumors that they are on the verge of publishing the Trump ME peace plan they have worked on for over a year. Whatever they decide, it should be based on realism and focused on the long game.
2. In fairness to the Trump Administration (not a phrase I often use), they inherited a situation in which there was zero chance to achieve peace between Israelis & Palestinians, or even to restart negotiations . The parties cannot do it, at least under their current leaderships.
3. Abbas and Netanyahu fundamentally -- but, fundamentally! -- mistrust each other. Each had his worst suspicion confirmed about the other during failed talks, spikes of terrorist violence, and settlement expansion of the last decade: There is no partner. Their publics agree.
4. Further, both leaders face impossible domestic political and personal constraints. Abbas is aging, in poor health, managing the jockeying beneath him ahead of a succession struggle, and constantly in political competition with Hamas.
5. Bibi leads a government dominated by open opponents of a 2-state solution. He never revisits his Bar-Ilan speech. He's likely facing indictments, and his political strategy for his legal troubles is to pull in close to his right wing base, hoping they will stand with him.
6. If, somehow, by hook or by crook, Trump managed to drag them back to the negotiating table, it would almost certainly fail spectacularly, likely punctuated by another round of violence. Arguably that was already true in 2013. Kerry's effort was probably doomed from the outset.
7. In 2017, Trump gained leverage with both sides &even with Arab states to help. Then the Jerusalem decision, correct on its merits, lacked the context of a 2-state vision that acknowledges Pals can achieve their capital in EJ, which would have made it easier for them to absorb.
8. Instead, the decision sent the Palestinians into orbit, resulting in some vile, anti-Semitic speeches by Abbas, disqualifying him, and leading to a total cut-off in US-Palestinian ties. Presenting a plan under those circumstances guarantees it would be dead on arrival.
9. What to do? After all their work, not presenting anything might feel like failure. But so would presenting a DOA plan. My advice is address the issues, but *not* with an eye toward bringing the parties back to talks. It should be explicitly stated that that is not the goal.
10. Instead, the focus should be on keeping the two-state solution alive and viable as an achievable goal, but with negotiations to be undertaken only after changes in the leadership dynamics. What could such a policy entail?
11. First, a clear statement of the vision of two-states as the goal, something Trump has not done. Second, some clarity on the basic elements of that state (territory: 67 lines + swaps to account for settlement blocs; refugees: no right of return to Israel but yes to Palestine;
12. ...security: detailed arrangements to ensure WB can't turn into Gaza; recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and end of conflict; 2 capitals in a shared Jerusalem, with access to holy sites, maybe highlight some Arab EJ neighborhoods that would def be under Pal sovereignty).
13. Third, start on a program of steps all sides can take on their own that are consistent with a two-state outcome, but don't require negotiations or trust: Israeli settlement freeze east of the barrier; upgraded Palestinian security cooperation and areas of operation;
14. ...forthright Palestinian leadership condemnation of incitement and education for peace; increased PA economic development opportunities in WB Areas B and C; more steps toward normalization with Israel by Arab states (public meetings, economic and cultural exchanges, etc.).
15. The US role can be to call on each side to take these steps, and take some of our own: resume the dialogue on 2-state security arrangements with the IDF, PA security forces, and Jordan; organize regional efforts to provide improved and creative aid for Gaza;
16. ...provide support for the Palestinian hi-tech sector, including opportunities for interchange with Israel's hi-tech companies, with aid and programs that can bypass the PA (necessary due to the Taylor Force Act).
17. Two states is not going to happen under Trump, barring dramatic Israeli &Pal leadership changes. It may never happen, but we shouldn't write it off yet. That's less ambitious than the "ultimate deal". But it's realistic, serves our interests, and is what the moment calls for.
18. It's still in our interests to keep 2 states alive and viable for when the right leaders emerge and make what seems impossible, suddenly possible. Sadat and Begin showed it can happen, unexpectedly. END
