Thread by @Mal_McKie

@DaveAlvord164 has asked me to look at an article about the latest Canadian trade controversy.

brianlilley.com/what-trudeau-d…

Brian Lilley writes about being made aware of an interview featured in a news program produced by the state-run Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC).

First, some background.

Before final negotiations at the G7, the President was asked during an interview about a sunset clause in the renegotiated deal with Canada. (14:20)

A sunset provision is essentially a predetermined date to end a contract.

The deal can be renewed under extended or renegotiated terms before it expires.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunset_pr…

The sunset provision was supposed to be a big deal-breaker for Canada.

cbc.ca/news/politics/…

So, after the President had left for Singapore, when asked about his thoughts on the Presidents previous insistence on a sunset clause, Trudeau basically deflects by repeating the same old script. (21:34)

He’s said it before, Lilley noted.

It’s true.

So what is different about THIS particular time?

Well, for one, Trudeau normally doesn’t have access to the same audience numbers as he does during an internationally televised event.

Even if the Canadian media worked overtime to assist him, his posturing would have limited reach for the remaining 99% of the time.

Secondly, it was in the immediate buildup to the MUCH MORE important summit in Singapore.

Larry Kudlow asserted as much on CNN.

Lilley was shown an article by Don Lenihan, whom had made him aware of a third, nearly missed, variable:

The CBC’s Ottawa bureau-chief, Rob Russo, spilled the beans about the President offering to waive the sunset provision, which had become a major obstacle to a renewed deal.

Someone was nice enough to truncate the clip for everybody, it’s in the tweet I’ve linked here.

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So, after offering to WAIVE the big deal-breaker, Trump had thought the meeting had been going well.

They shook hands, and Trudeau had PLENTY OF TIME to clarify the matter if he was unclear about something.

Lilley quotes Lenihan’s column, which suggested that everyone at the meeting had agreed to move on, but Trudeau reneged on that agreement.

“This was the trigger for Trump’s tweets,” writes Lenihan.

nationalnewswatch.com/2018/06/12/dip…

“In Trump’s mind, the decision to waive the sunset clause had been a generous act of reconciliation. Yet Trudeau publicly denigrated him just to score political points with Canadians.”

“Trump was livid. He found it duplicitous and humiliating.”

Can anyone really blame the President for feeling backstabbed?

Lilley agrees that it’s a plausible theory.

But why… ?

There are a few different theories I’ve heard about this.

I’ll go through one of the more compelling ones tonight, and then I’ll say my theory tomorrow when I come back to finish this thread.

Manny Montenegrino alleges that Trudeau is trying to sabotage NAFTA.

Small thread on it here:

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Manny is correct that they dropped the ball on several of their election issue files.

Many of my local friends who were once supporters have basically given up on Trudeau.

The shiny pony has lost its novelty.

By angering Trump into terminating NAFTA, Manny suggests, Trudeau can reconsolidate his declining poll numbers by appearing to take a stand in the name of defending Canada.

Let’s take a look at what changed in the polls.

June 5 Nanos poll:

Liberals - 34%
Conservatives - 34%
NDP - 21%

nationalnewswatch.com/2018/06/05/con…

June 12 Nanos poll:

Liberals - 35%
Conservatives - 33%
NDP - 22%

nationalnewswatch.com/2018/06/12/lib…

His party did make a small gain during that time, but it won’t be until the next poll comes out on the 17th that we can say for sure whether or not there is an actual impact.

It could just be a temporary uptick because people are still talking about it.

Manny wasn’t kidding when he said they had blown up their major files.

Without an issue on which to run, they are basically sitting ducks.

cbc.ca/radio/thehouse…

“The important thing for the Liberal party is to make clear all the changes they've already implemented,” said David Axelrod, former Obama campaign strategist.

Or MAYBE, David, they could have just delivered on half of the laundry list they SAID they were going to implement?

So, two things make this theory interesting for me.

Here’s one:

brianlilley.com/how-insanely-s…

Lilley suggests here that Trudeau’s team were the ones who leaked the information about the “tense” phone call between he and President Trump.

The call where Trump made a joke about 1812.

So if there were any attempt to troll the President into destroying NAFTA, this could potentially be an attempt to prime him mentally beforehand.

The OTHER thing that makes it more interesting is this:

During the question period in Parliament on Wednesday, Conservative party leader Andrew Scheer asked the Prime Minister about the President offering to waive the sunset provision.

Trudeau doesn’t specifically deny it, he basically dances around the question.

Twice.

“No, Mr. Speaker. With the American President, as is regularly, we engaged on a broad range of subjects including, in which I reiterated, that the sunset clause on NAFTA would be absolutely unacceptable…”

“... that Canada could never sign a NAFTA with a sunset clause in it, and he did not immediately back down.”

Kind of an elaborate way to say “no,” and it was the second time in a row that he had been asked about it. The above quotes were his clarification.

It’s an interesting theory; I’m not so sure about it, though.

It gives WAY too much credit to Trudeau and his team.

I wouldn’t necessarily attribute bad intent on this rather than simple stupidity.

This guy is alleged to be unable to control his own trust fund. (12:42)

Trudeau was a substitute drama teacher, as well as being a former actor straight out of the Québécois school of shitty over-acting.

Observe the silly parsing and head tilts.

Whenever he goes off script, it usually results in a gaffe.

He says different things in French to the Québécois than he says in English to the rest of Canada.

cbc.ca/news/politics/…

"Certainly, when we look at the great prime ministers of the 20th century, those that really stood the test of time, they were MPs from Québec. There was Trudeau, there was Mulroney, there was Chrétien, there was Paul Martin. We have a role. This country—Canada—it belongs to us."

These next comments were made (also in French) after his party was decimated and had 34 seats in Parliament (they currently have 184).

theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/…

"I always say, if at a certain point, I believe that Canada was really the Canada of Stephen Harper–that we're going against abortion, & we're going against gay marriage & we're going backwards in 10,000 different ways–maybe, I would think about wanting to make Québéc a country."

He isn’t afraid of praising the top totalitarian heavyweight before he is in charge.

cbc.ca/news/canada/to…

Or cuddling up to them to them AFTER he is in charge.

theglobeandmail.com/amp/news/polit…

Yes, that’s right.

On top of being a buffoon off-the-cuff, Justin Trudeau is getting in trouble for selling access.

He is Canada’s Hillary Clinton.

nationalpost.com/news/politics/…

Now, it would be a shame to leave out his two major sidekicks throughout all of this.

First, Chrystia Freeland.

This lady:

She’s the Minister of Foreign Affairs, but she was previously the Minister of International Trade. Her biggest accomplishment in cabinet was almost wrecking the Canadian-EU trade agreement.

For this, she was promoted to a better role. OBVIOUSLY.

theguardian.com/world/2016/oct…

Here she is CRYING because she couldn’t get them to come to an agreement.

At 58 seconds in the video she mentions how “polite” Canada allegedly is. Trudeau also played this card during his grandstanding, it’s very passive aggressive.

globalnews.ca/video/3018394/…

Strangely enough, the thing that nearly ruined the entire trade deal was a spat over protections for farmers from one region. SOUND FAMILIAR?

Different product (pork and beef, instead of dairy), but it makes her crocodile tears appear disingenuine.

theguardian.com/world/2016/oct…

So here’s Freeland after the meetings, saying tariffs are absurd and illegal.

You can take a minute to pause and laugh at this. I’ll understand.

cnn.com/2018/06/13/pol…

Let’s just review some charts before moving on.

Yes, Chrystia, tariffs are TOTALLY absurd.

Of course, we still haven’t gotten the EU to fully sign on to that trade deal… NOT THAT IT MATTERS TO THE MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS.

nationalpost.com/news/politics/…

Next, we have Gerald Butts.

This man:

Justin’s entire life is centered around different handlers. He is alleged to be unable to access his inheritance money, and he is politically managed by Gerald Butts.

Butts is Trudeau’s senior advisor. He can basically be seen everywhere with him.

He’s Trudeau’s Huma Abedin.

Butts has been played defence for some of Trudeau’s most popular excursions.

theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/…

Look at how Trudeau responded to questions after getting grilled in Parliament over his taxpayer-funded visit to a billionaire’s island.

Even the lisp shines through.

Butts’ job is to keep Trudeau informed and on-message.

I stole these photos from @ITS_LIISA_.

Here is Butts passing notes to Trudeau, via Freeland and a staffer:

My theory is that THESE TWO advised Trudeau to stick to the old talking points throughout the summit.

EVEN AFTER Trump had allegedly waived the inclusion of a sunset provision, Trudeau stuck to the script and just defaulted to the same old same.

It’s not the first time sticking to the script has backfired for him.

theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/…

The best clip that describes this situation is from South Park.

Hillary's (Justin's) handlers (Butts and Freeland) tell her that whatever her opponent (Trump) says during the debate (trade negotiation), just stick to the script & repeat the same thing.

Trudeau has been rebuked for enough gaffes, so it's plausible he just stuck to the same old script despite being offered an olive branch.

It wasn’t ALL negative between them during the talks. To me, this just seems like bad timing and incompetence on the part of Trudeau & team.

Both countries already had tariffs on various goods BEFORE any renegotiations.

One major roadblock for NAFTA originally was Canadian dairy products.

Dairy tariffs are so high because they were meant to protect a liberal sacred cow in Québec.

In Canada, a party leader is basically a House representative with special privileges. The leader of the party with the most seats becomes Prime Minister.

Unlike POTUS, the Prime Minister is still required to adhere the demands of one particular constituency.

Trudeau's riding is located in Québec, so—despite his district being located in a city—he is likely to be cautious to take any initiative that would be seen by the local media as rocking the boat against big-dairy.

cbc.ca/news/canada/mo…

The dairy lobby is one of the biggest in Canada.

They spend big bucks to receive big bucks through supply management subsidies called “Special Milk Classes.”

lobbymonitor.ca/2013/01/23/dai…

“Canada provides milk components at discounted prices to domestic processors under the Special Milk Class Permit Program (SMCPP).”

Europe's basically doing the same for Wallonia’s pork and beef, in order to get them to agree to a Canadian-EU trade deal.

export.gov/article?id=Can…

“These prices are ‘discounted’ in the sense that they are lower than Canadian support prices and reflect U.S. or world prices. The SMCPP is designed to help Canadian processed products compete against imports and in foreign markets.”

It’s socialism for milkmen.

Québec farmers received billions in subsidies during the Harper administration. Even with a Conservative in charge they STILL managed to become the beneficiary of a large amount of tax dollars.

huffingtonpost.ca/yan-roberts/ca…

“$4.3 billion in subsidies is a lot to compensate for a small percentage of their domestic market share being open to competition. There are less than 12 thousand dairy farms in Canada, and their total net farm annual receipts only reach $6.07 billion.”

NO SHIT?!

Funny enough, our subsidies leave us OPEN to lawsuits.

If Trudeau was concerned about the farmers specifically, rather than their wrath, he might’ve put up more fuss over the ISDS provisions about which the President had spoken.

globaljustice.org.uk/blog/2015/oct/…

An Investor-State Dispute Settlement provision is a legal mechanism which gives companies the ability to sue the governments of a foreign country if something in the foreign country causes them to lose business.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investor-…

I agree with the concept, but the way it's structured leaves basically EVERY Canadian company at risk of lawsuits due to our subsidized programs, like healthcare.

Dairy pulling in $6.07B, while receiving $4.3B in subsidies SEEMS LIKE A LEGAL LIABILITY to me, but I'm no expert.

Trudeau could have lobbied the President in private for a some quid pro quo on that, and he may have gotten it IF HE HAD BEHAVED WELL.

I wouldn't blame the President if he instructed dairy farmers to sue now.

Maybe THAT's the one way we can finally get rid of supply management.

The “Conservative” Party of Canada leader Andrew Scheer recently demoted his biggest competitor from the previous leadership race over his stance on supply management.

Even the conservative politicians here can't, OR WON'T, turn off the money faucet.

nationalpost.com/opinion/andrew…

It’s just tough, because of Québec’s history and culture.

Socialism is sort of baked into their pseudo-national identity.

As a result, they are the biggest recipients of federal transfer funding (socialism for entire provinces).

fin.gc.ca/fedprov/mtp-en…

Anyway, to recap:

I think Justin Trudeau got in trouble for sticking to the same protectionist script, because he has been reigned-in too often by his handlers.

It's convenient to assume it’s some plot, but we can’t even get trade deals with THE EUROPEANS right.

We pulled the same bullshit with them when Freeland cried and passive aggressively talked about how we’re SO POLITE.

Do they honestly believe pearl-clutching will work on the President?

Like many Canadian actors, Trudeau basically has no substance.

To make up for his shortfalls, he makes himself into a distraction.

Here he is dressed as an Indian.

Indian media outlets published articles suggesting this was over the top.

Here he is dressed as a pirate.

Seems to be from 2010, back when he still participated in Movember virtue-signalling.

Here he is, our very own Manchurian candidate.

I can actually feel the cringes he is receiving from the suits standing behind him.

This was for the Calgary stampede.

I actually prefer this photo without the context, but at least it's good to know he was appropriately dressed for this event.

I am not sure why he is dressed like a Nazi if he is playing Talbot Papineau in a 2007 film.

I'll have to check it out to see how bad the acting is, at some point.

Do any of you want to see how President Trump dressed for Halloween?

(or any other world events, for that matter)

He dressed like himself.

Trump doesn't need to be a master of disguise.

One thing I find interesting about the drama is how nationalistic all the default-progressives became the MOMENT they thought Trump was targeting Canada.

Like him or hate him, his putting America first makes other people want to put THEIR countries first.

Its a beautiful thing.

/end

Addendum One:

"According to the Angus Reid survey, Trudeau’s approval rating went from 40% to 52%, while his disapproval went from 56% to 41%."

spencerfernando.com/2018/06/15/pol…

"This reverses the trend of Trudeau’s support over the past two years, which had seen his approval falling consistently while his disapproval rating rose."

If only he could harness some of that yoga fire to get a trade agreement signed.

Solid work from @SpencerFernando on this.