Thread by @BrunoBrussels

This July, the ambiguity will be over. UK will have to accept consequences of quasi single market membership/customs union with ECJ/EU regulators. The EU to accept a form of cherry-picking. Or...

thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/b…

Or.. It will be an FTA, with new trade barriers on top of Trump tariffs and a market meltdown including a freak out for car/manufacturers on both sides of channels
Unless - very unlikely if plan A can't be agreed - UK goes for full EEA plus customs union
Otherwise no deal looms

Main worry for EU27 negotiators is that May will not rally her cabinet on 6 July on proposals first briefed to Brussels by Robbins in April

To be be acceptable to May will have to acknowledge that EC/EU regulators and EU courts will keep jurisdiction over all goods reacted trade, including regulatory authorisation of new product and safety of industrial goods such as cars

"Can May bring Conservative Party and cabinet up the point where the consequences are spelt out?,” a senior source told me.
“It needs to be the full monty with all the consequences. We are not sure of May can get all her troops there."

Critical in days after the Chequers will be for PM to make it clear that she recognises the plan is not temporary, "until" hard Irish border avoided, as "that's completely unfeasible"
"She will have to say this not a backstop it is the future, from here to eternity,”

May's plan already dubbed "EEA minus" in the corridors. Selmayr/Barnier "purists" want full EEA or plain FTA. That will face resistance from EU governments if May plan accepts regulatory consequences

“The commission and Selmayr are obsessed with purity,” said the source
“The EU is not pure. It is always about trade offs. The final Brexit deal will be a bespoke one. The important thing is to ensure coherence and not to upset the balance.”

Germany also taking purist line. Wider politics of Trump and trade environment could tip that balance suggest some diplomats