1. I’m extremely happy for #AlexandriaOcasioCortez, but some of the ‘hot takes’ this morning from the press and punditry are just a lot of ‘hot air’. Yes, primaries can shift candidates away from the center, but, primaries differ from the GE and Congress differs from campaigns.
2. Choosing a further left candidate in a bright blue district is exactly where one expects to see these kind of shifts - and it’s a good thing, but can’t be extrapolated across the national party and across districts.
3. And, make no mistake, even in this progressive arena, Cortez will face tougher competition in the GE than an incumbent would have. That doesn’t mean it’s not worth the risk - but it speaks to strategy. Jason Crowley knew this and immediately endorsed Cortez. That helps a lot.
4. As the primaries can move a candidate away from the center, the general can move candidates toward the center. Why? Because whoever wins is going to need IND/NPP votes. A campaign point of wanting to abolish ICE will be heavily weaponized - as it plays into GOP attacks.
5. The lie that the WH is signaling should be the central focus of the GOP midterm strategy is that Dems want open borders. Cortez will necessarily have to address attacks on this from her opposition and clarify her stance.
6. Is it possible she could still win without walking back her stance at all? Perhaps in this district, but it’s still risky. In reality (and one hopes people realize it), campaign points that seem ‘extreme’ aren’t going to matter much once someone actually wins a seat.
7. She will be a fresh and powerful voice to fight the GOP and help influence her Congressional peers. She will be a much needed vote for Dem policy should we take a majority in November, but it’s pretty unlikely she would be able to bring and pass a bill to abolish ICE.
8. I say all this as a reminder to pundits and voters alike to keep your eye on the big picture and not get too lost in reading the tea leaves and prognosticating. Right now, it’s this simple - take a Congressional majority in November. Without that - none of this matters.
